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Using empirical models to estimate changes in carbon stocks reveals that climate change could lead to tropical regions losing 6.8–12% of the total carbon they stored in 1950 by 2100, with the highest losses in the southeastern Amazon. Under a higher emissions scenario, total carbon losses from the tropics could double.
Over the past four decades, Arctic sea ice has experienced a drastic decline in winter when it is recovering from summer melt. Observations and model simulations reveal that atmospheric rivers are more frequently reaching the Arctic in winter, preventing the sea ice from growing to the extent that is possible at the freezing temperature.
Modelled low-carbon pathways rarely incorporate processes reflecting social and political realities. Now two studies rise to this challenge by exploring the implications of a landmark initiative to phase out coal, showing that we need greater political ambition for faster transitions to keep a 1.5 °C outcome in sight.
Hybrid populations have long been perceived as a threat to distinct lineages and undervalued from a conservation perspective. Now, research suggests that hybrid populations may harbour gene combinations that improve their ability to cope with changing climate conditions.
Temperature affects both erosion and carbon cycling in the soil. Research now shows that under warming, the replacement of soil organic carbon lost by erosion increases but the preservation of deposited carbon decreases, with an overall rise in the cropland carbon sink.
Floating ice shelves that fringe Antarctica are at risk from warming ocean water and from above by warming air. Work now reveals that snow accumulation on ice shelves can minimize surface melt and ponding, but that future atmospheric warming will likely overpower this protection that snow provides, leaving ice shelves vulnerable to collapse.
Statistical analysis of a climate institutions dataset has identified four national models of climate governance used across countries with high emissions. These models are associated with the climate policy ambition and performance of each country. This analysis reveals that the effectiveness of climate policymaking could be strengthened by building climate institutions.
A changing climate is altering vegetation phenology and probably impacts drought frequency and severity. Changes in vegetation phenology have some unexpected consequences on the trajectories of drought recovery.
High uncertainty exists in the projected climate change impacts on the Nile’s economies and water-dependent sectors. Under these uncertainties, managing the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam cooperatively and adaptively can produce economic and water management benefits for Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt.
Partisan politics is characterized by pejorative generalizations across opposition groups, but, similar to the groups being derogated, not all partisans are the same. Understanding the nature of partisan opposition to climate policy may help promote bipartisan projects to mitigate climate change.
A meta-analysis reveals that a steep and immediate uptick in investment in climate-relevant infrastructure is needed to reach net-zero pathways in Europe. The investment needs are further intensified by the ambition to become independent from Russian gas imports and highlight the importance of redirecting finance flows with adequate green financial policies.
Tipping elements are regions that are vulnerable to climate change and capable of sudden drastic changes. Now research establishes long-distance linkages between tipping elements, with the network analysis offering insights into their interactions on a global scale.
