Using empirical models to estimate changes in carbon stocks reveals that climate change could lead to tropical regions losing 6.8–12% of the total carbon they stored in 1950 by 2100, with the highest losses in the southeastern Amazon. Under a higher emissions scenario, total carbon losses from the tropics could double.
This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution
Access options
Access Nature and 54 other Nature Portfolio journals
Get Nature+, our best-value online-access subscription
$29.99 / 30 days
cancel any time
Subscribe to this journal
Receive 12 print issues and online access
$209.00 per year
only $17.42 per issue
Buy this article
- Purchase on Springer Link
- Instant access to full article PDF
Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout
References
Malhi, Y. et al. Exploring the likelihood and mechanism of a climate-change-induced dieback of the Amazon rainforest. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 106, 20610–20615 (2009). This paper reveals the close relationship between climate, specifically precipitation and the maximum climatological water deficit, and tropical biomes .
Hubau, W. et al. Asynchronous carbon sink saturation in African and Amazonian tropical forests. Nature 579, 80–87 (2020). This paper presents field-based observations of carbon decline in Amazonian forests and the effect of drought years on carbon gains .
Koch, A., Hubau, W. & Lewis, S. L. Earth system models are not capturing present-day tropical forest carbon dynamics. Earth’s Future 9, e2020EF001874 (2021). This paper reveals that Climate Modelling Intercomparison Project models accurately represent carbon gains from tree growth, but not carbon losses from tree mortality .
Cox, P. M. et al. Sensitivity of tropical carbon to climate change constrained by carbon dioxide variability. Nature 494, 341–344 (2013). This paper presents model simulations that show an increase in tropical land carbon storage owing to the effects of increased atmospheric CO2 on photosynthesis and water-use efficiency.
Kolby Smith, W. et al. Large divergence of satellite and Earth system model estimates of global terrestrial CO2 fertilization. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 306–310 (2016). This paper provides evidence of the over-sensitivity of Earth system models to atmospheric CO2.
Additional information
Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
This is a summary of: Uribe, M. R. et al. Net loss of biomass predicted for tropical biomes in a changing climate. Nat. Clim. Change https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01600-z (2023).
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
The changing climate could lead to carbon losses in the tropics. Nat. Clim. Chang. 13, 218–219 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01602-x
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01602-x
