Reviews & Analysis

Amplified warming in the Arctic has been linked to weather variability in the midlatitudes. This Review considers the evidence from both observations and modelling studies on this link for increasing severe winter weather, including cold temperatures and heavy snowfalls.

Climate change has led to changes in migration patterns for many bird species. A novel application of the US system of weather radars reveals for the first time that climate change advances the timing of bird migration comprehensively at continental scales.

Effective decadal climate prediction is urgently needed, but achieving this is still very challenging. Now research suggests that greenhouse warming may compound these difficulties with less predictable global decadal climate variability.

Food security is uncertain under future climate change, but is there a threat of food system collapse? Now research assesses the probability of weather hazards occurring at the same time in the world’s major breadbaskets and reveals that the weather-related component of this risk could be increasing.

Extreme weather events may provide opportunities to raise public awareness about the effects of climate change. Research now shows that although single events have limited impact on discussion of climate change in affected communities, some communities may be more receptive, particularly if the event can be clearly attributed to climate change.

Migration is an important means to cope with the impacts of climate-related shocks. Research shows that networks of prior migrants aid this crucial adaptation mechanism.

Climate change is likely to increase human migration, but future climate-related migration flows will depend heavily on the adaptive capacity of people living in vulnerable regions and on the border policies of potential destination countries. Current opportunities for mobility are constrained by increasingly strict border enforcement and the securitization of international migration.

Model estimates of future hydroclimate are uncertain, especially at the regional scale. This Perspective argues that constraining model runoff and its sensitivity to precipitation and temperature can greatly reduce this uncertainty and improve climate model utility in water resource applications.

Nitrous oxide is a potent greenhouse gas for which global emission estimates, driven largely by fertilizer input, are highly uncertain. An inversion approach based on atmospheric measurements yields global increases more than twice as high as the IPCC default.

In this Perspective, the authors argue that defining the climate change problem as one of decarbonization rather than emissions reduction suggests a new guiding metaphor — the global fractal — which may be a more productive conceptualization for research and policy than the global commons.

Rising sea level is a principal threat to coastal systems worldwide — but far from being a simple matter of landscapes doomed to drown, the story involves complex feedbacks with the same processes that threaten them. Now a modelling study shows that the size and shape of tidal estuaries may determine their fate — proffering a perspective for mitigation against future sea-level rise.

Observations reveal recent Arctic warming, but future societal impacts are poorly understood. Now research identifies potential abrupt thaw-driven soil moisture shifts, with consequences for northern development including more intense wildfires and rainfall.

Ecosystem response to climate change will vary in amplitude and dynamically, which may not be captured in current experimental design. This Perspective presents experimental design improvements to better predict responses and thus facilitate understanding of future impacts.

The effects of global warming are felt earlier in Arctic regions than elsewhere in the world. Now research shows that Arctic marine food webs can adapt to climate change — but the study authors warn that this impression of resilience may be false in the long term.

Warming in the Arctic is causing soils to decompose more rapidly, even during winter. Now, estimates of winter carbon dioxide loss indicate that it can offset carbon gains during the growing season, meaning that the region is a source of carbon.

Transformation of the land sector is required to meet the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to 1.5 °C. Here, modelled emission pathways and mitigation strategies are reviewed. A land-sector roadmap of priority measures and key regions is presented.

The consequences of global warming will be dire, but the full extent of these effects on society is unknown and includes uncertainties. Research now suggests that how scientists communicate about the uncertainty over such climate change impacts can influence the public’s trust and acceptance of this information.

Predicting coral bleaching is critical to better manage and preserve coral reefs from global warming. An impressive coordination of surveys across oceans now offers new metrics to help to predict coral bleaching events on a global scale.

Climate change is expected to severely impact farming in sub-Saharan Africa. Now research shows that crop wild relatives might be able to secure Africa’s existing cropping practices by providing the genetic diversity needed to adapt crops to climates that they have never seen before.