Reviews & Analysis

Future Arctic methane emissions depend partly on interactions between soil carbon released during permafrost thaw and microbial physiology. Now, a model shows potential increased methane produced from thawing permafrost carbon could be offset by increased consumption by upland methanotrophs.

Climate change detection is confounded by internal variability, but recent initial-condition large ensembles (LEs) have begun addressing this issue. This Perspective discusses the value of multi-model LEs, the challenges of providing them and their role in future climate change research.

The partisan divide between Republicans and Democrats on climate change is large and shows no signs of narrowing. However, a new analysis shows that Republicans’ climate change attitudes were relatively unstable between 2014–2018, triggering cautious optimism that a tipping point in attitudes might be around the corner.

Under climate change, sea-level rise is expected to bring about large changes in the world’s coastlines. Now, research predicting future shoreline change from satellite data indicates loss of nearly 50% of sandy beaches by the end of the century.

Flash droughts, which develop over the course of weeks, are difficult to forecast given the current state of subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. This Perspective offers operational and research definitions, places them in the broader context of climate and suggests avenues for future research.

Ocean fronts and other hydrographic features are important for climate and ecology. This Review discussed fronts in the Southern Ocean, their detection and response to climate change, alongside the implications for studying the biology of the region.

Temperature affects the metabolic rates of species, their feeding interactions and their ability to persist in a given environment. Now research suggests that different effects of temperature on consumers and resources could cause food webs in cold climates to become less vulnerable to species loss, whereas tropical communities may be more vulnerable as temperatures climb.

Atmospheric aerosols have probably masked a significant portion of the greenhouse-gas-induced warming so far. Research now shows that this also may have masked some of the world’s increasing economic inequality.

Individual responses to climate hazards can contribute to long-term societal resilience. This Review finds that the literature emphasizes intrapersonal cognitive and affective drivers of adaptation behaviour rather than the interpersonal social factors that promote coordinated cooperative action.

As tundra ecosystems respond to rapid Arctic warming, satellite records suggest a widespread greening. This Perspective highlights the challenges of interpreting complex Arctic greening trends and provides direction for future research by combining ecological and remote sensing approaches.

Ground-level ozone is an air pollutant that is harmful to human health, as well as to plants, trees and crops. New analyses based on Earth system modelling show that reducing ozone from the energy, industrial and transportation sectors could mitigate climate change by enhancing the ability of vegetation to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere through photosynthesis.

The impacts of climate change on the ecohydrology of forested mountain regions are uncertain. New high-resolution modelling suggests that during a hot, dry summer in the Alps, stressed vegetation capitalizes on downslope water subsidies, amplifying runoff deficits and further depleting water resources.

For years, halogens have been known as destroyers of ‘good’ ozone, which acts as an upper-atmosphere shield from harmful ultraviolet radiation. Research now shows that natural halogen compounds emitted from the ocean help to control ‘bad’ ozone pollution at ground level and may continue to do so at a similar rate in future climate.

An anthropogenic fingerprint has been detected in long-term climate trends, but distinguishing human-induced change from natural variability in day-to-day weather remains a challenge. Research now finds that a human influence is discernible in global patterns of daily temperature and moisture.