Reviews & Analysis

Heavy precipitation has increased worldwide, but the effect of this on flood magnitude has been difficult to pinpoint. An alternative approach to analysing records shows that, in the central United States, floods have become more frequent but not larger.

Several approaches are used to assess species’ vulnerability to climate change. Identifying the strengths and weaknesses of such methods should help conservationists minimize biodiversity losses.

Understanding the vulnerability of different US coastal communities to the likely harmful effects of ocean acidification on shellfisheries should inform the development of effective adaptation measures.

Solar radiation management – a form of geoengineering – could be used to cool the planet but has potential risks. A scenario for solar radiation management is proposed that is temporary, moderate and can be adjusted in light of new information.

The characteristics and views of people sceptical about climate change have been analysed extensively. A study now confirms that sceptics in the US have some characteristics of a social movement, but shows that the same group dynamics propel believers.

Climate change can affect well-being in poor economies more than previously shown if its effect on economic growth, and not only on current production, is considered. But this result does not necessarily suggest greater mitigation efforts are required.

As atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations rise, some regions are expected to warm more than others. Now research suggests that whether warming will intensify or slow down over time also depends on location.

Evolutionary adaptation will help some animals cope with future climate change, but for juvenile salmon there may be limits to how far the thermal tolerance of cardiac function can adapt.

Asia's mega-deltas are densely populated and face multiple stressors including upstream development and sea-level rise. Adapting to these challenges requires difficult choices between hard and soft responses set within a strongly political context.

Lack of progress in global climate change negotiations has revamped interest in polycentric approaches – sub-global mechanisms to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It is still unclear why these mechanisms might achieve better outcomes than global negotiations. This Perspective outlines themain advantages of polycentric approaches over a global one by reviewing significant theoretical, empirical, and experimental evidence.

Projections and predictions of future climate today generally rely on ensembles of climate model simulations. This Perspective advocates a radically different approach, using numerical weather predictions and knowledge of past weather events.

How climate change will impact the natural phenomenon La Niña, the counterpart of El Niño, has been unclear. In spite of uncertainty, now a study shows a large model consensus for an increasing frequency of extreme La Niña events.