Reviews & Analysis

Climate change affects sea surface density via changes in the sea surface temperature and salinity. These projected sea surface density changes are likely to affect the dispersal patterns of widely distributed mangrove species and are expected to be largest in the Indo West Pacific, the primary hotspot of mangrove diversity.

A projected change in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is found to induce a change in high-latitude winds, thereby affecting future Southern Ocean warming. A greater projected increase in ENSO amplitude in response to transient greenhouse forcing weakens high-latitude westerly poleward intensification and slows future Southern Ocean warming.

Years of research on adaptation to climate change shows that many efforts are counterproductively increasing vulnerability, rather than reducing it — known as ‘maladaptation’. Now a study suggests ways forward by identifying four structural challenges that need to be overcome in adaptation implementation.

Quantifying historical trends in tropical cyclone activity has proved difficult, but a new reconstruction reveals a clear global decline over the past century, driven by an increasingly cyclone-hostile environment in the troposphere.

The world’s poorest households, who often depend on agricultural incomes, are increasingly vulnerable to weather-induced shocks. A recent study shows how anti-poverty programmes can help to protect both consumption and income when exposed to shocks.

We tracked the annual extent of rivers on the Greenland ice sheet, revealing that the ice sheet's runoff area expanded by 29% between 1985 and 2020. Strong melting and refreezing has transformed the upper snow and firn layers into thick ice, enabling runoff from higher elevations even during cooler summers.

Many companies purchase renewable energy certificates to report reduced emissions, but this may not lead to actual emission reductions. We need emission accounting that is both accurate and that incentivizes companies to make impactful contributions to decarbonizing electricity grids.

A study involving over 12,000 observations shows that high-quality cropland soils not only lead to a higher yield, but also to a smaller yield reduction and variability in response to warmer climates. Appropriate efforts to improve soil quality may reduce the decline in crop production induced by climate change in China by 20%.

The rapid growth of artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping our society in many ways, and climate change is no exception. This Perspective presents a framework to assess how AI affects GHG emissions and proposes approaches to align the technology with climate change mitigation.

Following a complete cessation of anthropogenic emissions, global warming will continue before cooling. We modelled this zero-emissions scenario in the context of realistic emissions pathways and revealed an existing commitment to temporarily exceeding 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming thresholds half a decade before these targets would have otherwise been reached.

How the species that form ecological communities respond to climate change will affect the future resilience of ecosystems, and their capacity to support humankind. The responses of animals and plants to four decades of warming demonstrate the sensitivity of high-latitude ecosystems to increasing temperatures.

Climate change and rising CO₂ concentrations have been increasing plant productivity over the past two decades. Now, research projects that this increase will cease over most of the Northern Hemisphere, except the Arctic, by 2060.

A model based on plausible changes in expectations of future oil and gas demand identifies the ultimate financial owners of potential stranded assets to be predominantly OECD-based individual investors (through pension funds and shareholdings) and governments of non-OECD countries.

Using a cryosphere–hydrology–crop model, future changes in the amount and sources of water withdrawals for irrigation are investigated for South Asia under different climate change and socioeconomic scenarios. The model reveals that meltwater and groundwater will become increasingly important to complement rainfall runoff to provide food for millions.

Climate change can affect marine ecosystems in various ways, including modulation of seasonality, with consequences for the entire marine food web. Projections from a state-of-the-art Earth system model suggest that marine phytoplankton bloom timing could be shortened in high-latitude, high-productivity oceans.

Mitigation scenario ensembles are becoming an important tool to bring new and robust insights into the transition to net zero. This Perspective unpacks their potential and identifies key steps for better use of scenario ensembles and to foster good practices.

Anthropogenic climate change is accelerating melting at the surface of the Greenland ice sheet. Evidence now suggests that extensive melting is also occurring at the base of the ice at much faster rates than previously thought.

Climate change is causing more frequent and intense precipitation extremes; however, these changes are difficult to project. This paper shows that observations of the increased frequency of extreme precipitation events over the past four decades can be used to reduce uncertainty in future climate model projections by 20–40%.

In response to future warming and freshening of the North Atlantic Ocean, climate models project a slowing of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Geological data and climate modelling for the past 11,700 years suggest the AMOC may be much less sensitive to large freshening of the ocean than often assumed.