Letters

Increasingly, financial institutions will be exposed to climate risks that will exacerbate the negative economic impacts of climate change. An agent-based integrated assessment model is used to analyse climate impacts on the global banking system, finding an increase in banking crises and public bailout costs.

Winter warming in the Arctic will increase the CO₂ flux from soils. A pan-Arctic analysis shows a current loss of 1,662 TgC per year over the winter, exceeding estimated carbon uptake in the growing season; projections suggest a 17% increase under RCP 4.5 and a 41% increase under RCP 8.5 by 2100.

Global warming projections exhibit a contracted intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and an expanded Hadley cell. Here, equatorial Pacific warming is shown to contract seasonal ITCZ migration and counteract Hadley cell expansion, leading to an equatorward shift in the Asian subtropical monsoon.

Ocean warming and acidification will affect the structure and bioavailability of biomolecules. The toxic form of two neurotoxins will increase with climate change, presenting an ecotoxicology risk with global hotspots as exemplified by saxitoxin toxicity in Alaskan butter clam.

Improved predictions of coral bleaching are critical. In a coordinated global survey effort during the 2016 El Niño, time-series patterns of peak hot temperatures, cool period durations and temperature bimodality were found to be better predictors of coral bleaching than common threshold metrics.

A 30-year dataset shows that marsh plants increased primary productivity and stem density with CO₂ enrichment, but diameter and height decreased under nitrogen limitation. The addition of nitrogen reversed these changes, which is important to allow marshes to keep pace with rising sea levels.

Understanding which factors influence future economic impacts from climate change is important for informing mitigation and adaptation strategies. This study demonstrates that projected economic impacts are primarily attributed to variation in socioeconomic development and future emissions trajectories, rather than uncertainties in the climate response.

Future climate conditions threaten crops in sub-Saharan Africa. It is shown that most major sub-Saharan African crops have wild relatives that occur in regions better suited for future climate conditions, suggesting an opportunity for adaptation that does not require the adoption of new production systems.

The Indian Ocean is warming at an accelerated rate, and modelling experiments show teleconnections affecting the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). In a warming climate, reduced tropical Atlantic rainfall causes salinity changes strengthening the AMOC, while other factors weaken it.

Bananas are a staple food crop and important agricultural export for many countries. Here, it is shown that global banana yields have increased historically and will continue to increase in Africa but reduced yields are expected among the larger producers.

The supply of dense Antarctic Bottom Water to the Atlantic overturning circulation has declined in recent years. Observations show that since 2014 this has stabilized and slightly recovered due to variability in upstream dense waters, with implications for the global climate.

Along the West Antarctic Peninsula, a 25-year dataset indicates that oceanic CO₂ uptake depends on upper ocean stability and phytoplankton dynamics. Diatoms achieve high oceanic CO₂ uptake and uptake efficiency. There has been a nearly fivefold increase in oceanic CO₂ uptake due to sea ice changes.

Climate models project an increase in summer weather persistence for the northern mid-latitudes. In a 2 °C world, two-week-long hot-and-dry conditions increase by up to 20% for eastern North America. The chance of a week of heavy rainfall increases by 26%, adding to the risk of extremes in the future.

Fires play an important role in ecosystem dynamics. Long-term controls on global burnt area include fuel continuity and moisture, with ignitions and human activity becoming dominant in specific ecosystems. Changes in fuel continuity and moisture are the main drivers of changes of fire globally.

Climate change will increase meltwater and iceberg discharge from Antarctica, with implications for future climate and sea levels. Iceberg melt will partly offset greenhouse warming in the Southern Ocean and dampen the positive feedback loop between ice-sheet melting and subsurface warming.

Additional electricity generation is required to compensate for losses from inefficient transmission and distribution infrastructure. In this study, emissions from compensatory generation and the potential for reductions are estimated for 142 countries.

Elevated CO₂ increases plant biomass, providing a negative feedback on global warming. Nutrient availability was found to drive the magnitude of this effect for the majority of vegetation globally, and analyses indicated that CO₂ will continue to fertilize plant growth in the next century.

Lack of information is a barrier to climate change adaptation, and filling the information gap is a key component of adaptation projects. However, using a randomized controlled trial, this study finds no impact of a capacity-building workshop on community water management practices in Costa Rica.

Projections of temperature often focus on maximum warming levels, with variability less often considered. Investigating decadal variability in models shows those with higher equilibrium climate sensitivity also have a higher chance of super warming, and hiatus periods.

Exposure to dangerous heat following a major tropical cyclone is possible along coastlines globally. In a warmer world, the population at risk from this combination of extreme weather could rise markedly.