Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Perspective
  • Published:

Soil carbon is the blind spot of European national GHG inventories

Nature Climate Change volume 12, pages 324–331 (2022)Cite this article

Subjects

Abstract

Soil carbon is currently being monitored in European national greenhouse-gas (GHG) inventories. Reviewing the data and methods, we find that unreported losses could be around 70 MtCO2 yr–1 in croplands, and unreported gains could be around 15 MtCO2 yr–1 in grasslands and 45 MtCO2 yr–1 in forests. The share of European Union (EU) forest area for which soil carbon is being accurately reported is at most 33%, and more likely close to 24%. Accuracy is even worse for grasslands and croplands. Widespread adoption of key carbon-farming practices (peatland restoration, agroforestry, substituting maize with grass) could remove an additional 150–350 MtCO2 yr–1. Yet, if effective policies lead to realizing this potential, current GHG inventories would not capture their climate mitigation benefits.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Buy this article

  • Purchase on Springer Link
  • Instant access to full article PDF
Buy now

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Fig. 1: Land-related emissions in the EU 27 as reported in national GHG inventories.
Fig. 2: Net carbon stock changes in EU arable (cropland remaining cropland) mineral soils.
Fig. 3: Reported versus estimated soil carbon changes in the EU 27.

Similar content being viewed by others

Data availability

The raw data underlying all tables and figures in the manuscript are provided in the Supplementary Information as spreadsheets.

References

  1. Allen, M. et al. Technical Summary. In Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) (WMO, 2018).

  2. In-Depth Analysis in Support of the Commission Communication COM(2018) 773—A Clean Planet for All—A European Long-Term Strategic Vision for a Prosperous, Modern, Competitive and Climate Neutral Economy (European Commission, 2018).

  3. Pellerin, S. et al. Stocker du carbone dans les sols français, quel potentiel au regard de l’objectif 4 pour 1000 et à quel coût? (INRAE, 2019); https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02284521. Quantifies the carbon storage potential of eight major practices at the national scale in France for different carbon prices.

  4. Augère-Granier, M.-L. Agroforestry in the European Union (European Parliament, 2020).

  5. Lugato, E., Bampa, F., Panagos, P., Montanarella, L. & Jones, A. Potential carbon sequestration of European arable soils estimated by modelling a comprehensive set of management practices. Glob. Change Biol. 20, 3557–3567 (2014). Quantifies the carbon storage potential of six major practices at the European scale.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Barthelmes, A. Reporting Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Organic Soils in the European Union: Challenges and Opportunities (Greifswald Mire Centre, 2018). Identifies and quantifies the inaccuracies of European national GHG inventories regarding organic soils.

  7. Peatlands in the EU—Common Agriculture Policy (CAP) after 2020 (Greifswald Mire Centre, 2020).

  8. Haddaway, N. R. et al. How does tillage intensity affect soil organic carbon? A systematic review. Environ. Evid. 6, 30 (2017).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Ogle, S. M. et al. Scale and uncertainty in modeled soil organic carbon stock changes for US croplands using a process-based model. Glob. Change Biol. 16, 810–822 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Achat, D. L., Fortin, M., Landmann, G., Ringeval, B. & Augusto, L. Forest soil carbon is threatened by intensive biomass harvesting. Sci. Rep. 5, 15991 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Mayer, M. et al. Influence of forest management activities on soil organic carbon stocks: a knowledge synthesis. For. Ecol. Manage. 466, 118127 (2020).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Mary, B., Clivot, H., Blaszczyk, N., Labreuche, J. & Ferchaud, F. Soil carbon storage and mineralization rates are affected by carbon inputs rather than physical disturbance: evidence from a 47-year tillage experiment. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 299, 106972 (2020).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  13. Leifeld, J. et al. Organic farming gives no climate change benefit through soil carbon sequestration. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 110, E984–E984 (2013).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  14. Barthelmes, A., Couwenberg, J., Risager, M., Tegetmeyer, C. & Joosten, H. Peatlands and Climate in a Ramsar Context (Norden, 2015).

  15. Solberg, S. et al. Analyses of the impact of changes in atmospheric deposition and climate on forest growth in European monitoring plots: A stand growth approach. For. Ecol. Manage. 258, 1735–1750 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Zaehle, S. et al. Carbon and nitrogen cycle dynamics in the O-CN land surface model: 2. role of the nitrogen cycle in the historical terrestrial carbon balance. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 24, GB1006 (2010).

  17. Clivot, H. et al. Modeling soil organic carbon evolution in long-term arable experiments with AMG model. Environ. Model. Softw. 118, 99–113 (2019).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Bellamy, P. H. et al. Carbon losses from all soils across England and Wales 1978–2003. Nature 437, 245–248 (2005).

  19. Martin, M. P. et al. Feasibility of the 4 per 1000 aspirational target for soil carbon: a case study for France. Glob. Change Biol. 27, 2458–2477 (2021).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Fernández-Ugalde, O., Ballabio, C., Lugato, E., Scarpa, S. & Jones, A. Assessment of Changes in Topsoil Properties in LUCAS Samples Between 2009/2012 and 2015 Surveys (European Commission, 2020); https://doi.org/10.2760/5503

  21. Smith, P. et al. How to measure, report and verify soil carbon change to realize the potential of soil carbon sequestration for atmospheric greenhouse gas removal. Glob. Change Biol. 26, 219–241 (2020). Review of the scientific and technical challenges of soil monitoring.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Voltz, M. et al. La cartographie des sols en France: Etat des lieux et perspectives (INRA, 2018); http://www.gissol.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Rapport-complet-Carto-Sols-France-juillet2018.pdf

  23. Makipaa, R., Hakkinen, M., Muukkonen, P. & Peltoniemi, M. The costs of monitoring changes in forest soil carbon stocks. Boreal Environ. Res. 13, 120–130 (2008).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  24. Cevallos, G., Grimault, J. & Bellassen, V. Domestic Carbon Standards in Europe—Overview and Perspectives (I4CE, 2019).

  25. Calvo Buendia, E. et al. (eds) in 2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Vol. 4 (IPCC, WMO, UNEP, 2019).

  26. Report on the Individual Review of the Annual Submission of Norway Submitted in 2020 (UNFCCC, 2021).

  27. Report of the Conference of the Parties on Its Nineteenth Session, Held in Warsaw from 11 to 23 November 2013 (UNFCCC, 2014).

  28. Hansen, M. C. et al. High-resolution global maps of 21st-century forest cover change. Science 342, 850–853 (2013).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  29. Lugato, E. et al. Soil erosion is unlikely to drive a future carbon sink in Europe. Sci. Adv. 4, eaau3523 (2018).

  30. Smith, J. et al. Projected changes in mineral soil carbon of European croplands and grasslands, 1990–2080. Glob. Change Biol. 11, 2141–2152 (2005).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  31. Yigini, Y. & Panagos, P. Assessment of soil organic carbon stocks under future climate and land cover changes in Europe. Sci. Total Environ. 557–558, 838–850 (2016).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. Wiesmeier, M. et al. Projected loss of soil organic carbon in temperate agricultural soils in the 21st century: effects of climate change and carbon input trends. Sci. Rep. 6, 32525 (2016).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  33. Griscom, B. W. et al. Natural climate solutions. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 114, 11645–11650 (2017).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  34. Doelman, J. C. et al. Afforestation for climate change mitigation: potentials, risks and trade‐offs. Glob. Change Biol. 26, 1576–1591 (2020).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  35. Emmett, B. A. et al. Soils Report from 2007 (Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, 2010).

  36. Grüneberg, E., Ziche, D. & Wellbrock, N. Organic carbon stocks and sequestration rates of forest soils in Germany. Glob. Change Biol. 20, 2644–2662 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  37. Ciais, P. et al. The European carbon balance. Part 2: croplands. Glob. Change Biol. 16, 1409–1428 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  38. IPCC 2013 Supplement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Wetlands (eds Hiraishi, T. et al.) (IPCC, 2014).

Download references

Acknowledgements

An early draft of this manuscript was submitted to the European Commission as an advisory note in view of the preparation of the impact assessment of future EU climate legislation. As such, it benefited from EU funding under grant no. 208659 and from the useful comments of V. Forlin (European Commission, DG Clima), F. Claeys (European Commission, DG Clima), V. Blujdea (European Commission, JRC) and R. A. Vinas (European Commission, JRC). The finalization of this work benefited from funding from the EJP Soil Road4Schemes project (European Commission, grant agreement no. 862695). Our understanding of which practices were captured by national greenhouse-gas inventories was kindly checked by the inventory compilers themselves: P. Weiss (Austria), A. Guns (Belgium), L. Stoeva (Bulgaria), E. Cienciala (Czech Republic), S. Gyldenkærne (Denmark), C. Robert (France), K. Black and B. Hyde (Ireland), M. Vitello (Italy), A. Said (Malta), P. Canaveira (Portugal), G. Nicodim (Romania), T. Priwitzer (Slovakia), B. Mali (Slovenia) and I. Martinez Castro (Spain). We also thank A. Barthelmes for her insights on wetlands. D.A. is affiliated with Université Laval as Adjunct Professor and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) as Honorary Scientist. Views and opinions expressed in this paper are those of the authors only.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. CESAER UMR1041, INRAE, Institut Agro, Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté, Dijon, France

    Valentin Bellassen

  2. Université Laval and AAFC, Québec City, Québec, Canada

    Denis Angers

  3. COWI, Copenhagen, Denmark

    Tomasz Kowalczewski

  4. FSC International, Bonn, Germany

    Asger Olesen

Authors
  1. Valentin Bellassen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Denis Angers
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Tomasz Kowalczewski
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Asger Olesen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

V.B. designed the study and wrote the first draft. V.B. and T.K. collected and analysed the data from greenhouse gas inventories. D.A. coordinated the compilation of average soil carbon changes (Table 3). D.A. and A.O. reviewed and revised the manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Valentin Bellassen.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

Peer review

Peer review information

Nature Climate Change thanks Liesl Wiese-Rozanov, Yusuf Yigini and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

Additional information

Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Supplementary information

Supplementary Information

Supplementary figures, tables, discussion and references.

Supplementary Data 1

Emissions and removals for EU land areas.

Supplementary Data 2

Reporting methods in EU GHG inventories and compilation of storage potential estimates at EU level.

Supplementary Data 3

Compilation of soil carbon change estimates at large scales from soil inventories.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Bellassen, V., Angers, D., Kowalczewski, T. et al. Soil carbon is the blind spot of European national GHG inventories. Nat. Clim. Chang. 12, 324–331 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01321-9

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01321-9

This article is cited by

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing