Reviews & Analysis

An insight into the global patterns of marine heatwaves from the surface to depths of 2,000 m reveals that subsurface events are more intense and long-lasting than surface ones. Biodiversity exposure to the effects of marine heatwaves is higher at depths of 50–250 m, suggesting that subsurface biodiversity could be at considerable risk.

Net-zero pledges are emerging around the world, but to be consequential they must compel credibility as a core objective of climate policy design. This paper proposes an approach, named backward induction, that aims to maximize policy credibility by balancing building commitment and cost efficiency.

In this Perspective, the authors highlight the potential of animal-borne sensors to overcome common limitations of traditional climate measurements. Animal-borne sensors can provide fine-grained and ecologically relevant sampling, and tagged animals could function as environmental sentinels worldwide.

A multi-model analysis shows that the incorporation of advances in damage functions — namely growth effects — substantially increases the social cost estimates of methane and nitrous oxide, although uncertainty remains.

Oxygen concentrations are a key aspect of water quality, with low levels linked to ecosystem stress. Research indicates that oxygen levels will decrease in hundreds of rivers across the USA and Central Europe under climate change.

Emission savings from three circular economy strategies aiming to close, slow and narrow China’s bulk material loops have been analysed using an integrated model. This analysis highlights that material recycling delivers substantial emission cuts, but demand reduction is equally crucial for decarbonizing bulk materials.

Weather station records are too short and sparse to effectively detect the signature of climate change in Antarctica. Using the isotopic composition of ice cores as a temperature proxy suggests that Antarctica is warming faster than the global average temperature and expectations from climate models for the region.

A network of more than 100 researchers tracked trees for up to 30 years in forest plots across South America, enabling estimation of the impacts of record temperatures and drought on carbon dynamics. The carbon sink in these forests ceased during the 2015–2016 El Niño, with drier forests losing the most carbon.

Arctic uplands consume atmospheric methane, but whereas methane emissions are reasonably well studied, Arctic soil methane uptake is poorly understood. High-resolution measurements show that the Arctic soil methane sink might currently be underestimated, and is driven by soil moisture and labile carbon availability, implying increased methane uptake with climate change.

Declining snow cover poses a substantial risk for many ski resorts that often counter this trend with snowmaking, leading to increasing emissions caused by ski tourism. Research now quantifies the risks of rising temperatures to the skiing industry at the pan-European level, together with the potential and emissions of snowmaking.

Amidst the Arctic sea-ice decline and the consequent increasing under-ice light transmittance, Arctic zooplankton face challenging times. The collection of a unique dataset in the central Arctic Ocean unravels the patterns of their vertical migration, signalling potential disruptions to the Arctic ecosystem.

Reducing the risk of maladaptation is critical to successful climate adaptation, yet such dichotomy hampers nuanced assessments of adaptation outcomes. The authors provide a framework to assess relevant dimensions of adaptation outcomes on a continuum and apply it to various adaptation options.

Atmospheric observations can quantify anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, but variability in net land carbon exchange delays the detection of changes. Now, research improves understanding of this variability and allows earlier detection of emissions changes.

Satellite-based analysis indicates that the relative change in cloud droplet number concentration with relative change in aerosol concentration is sublinear, contrary to common assumptions. The revised nonlinear method predicts that in heavily polluted regions the additional warming due to improvements in air quality will occur two to three decades later than predicted by the linear method.

The stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is uncertain on a rapidly warming planet. Geoengineering through solar radiation modification could halt global warming and potentially delay the demise of the ice sheet. But in high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios, collapse of the ice sheet ensues despite such intervention.

Studies on sea-level rise often claim to be useful for local decision-makers and adaptation planning. We asked researchers and practitioners to discuss the different ways in which science can inform local to global decision-making and what researchers can do to improve the utility of their findings.

A net-zero change in tree cover is often considered to have no impact on the biophysical effects of forests. Satellite observations now reveal an asymmetric influence of gross tree-cover gain versus loss on land surface temperature. Neglecting this influence might lead to biases in quantifying the biophysical effects of forests.

Climate change might alter mosquito-borne disease risk, but research now suggests that one emerging mosquito control approach might be largely resistant to warming temperatures.

Satellite radar altimetry enables the detection of sea-level changes by collecting data that have exceeded early expectations. This Perspective discusses potential advances that would enhance the data, allowing regional detection and attribution of sea-level change and improving ocean heat uptake estimates.

Natural disasters can trigger conflictive behaviour among affected individuals. Now, research based on survey experiments with Syrian and Iraqi refugees shows how people behave altruistically after experiencing drought, but only towards ingroup members.