Research articles

Greenland ice sheet melt is currently the largest single contributor to sea-level rise. This work combines observations and theory to show that Greenland ice sheet imbalance with recent climate (2000–2019) has already committed at least 3.3% ice volume loss, equivalent to 274 mm of global sea-level rise.

The authors develop a climate risk index for marine species under two emission scenarios and find that exploited species in low-income countries have the greatest risk under the high emissions scenario. Mitigating emissions reduces risks, enhances ecosystem stability and benefits low-income countries that depend on fisheries.

Managing natural systems to mitigation climate change is a key strategy for limiting warming. In China, such natural climate solutions could offset 6% of CO₂ emissions during 2020–2030, contributing to mitigation goals but highlighting the importance of emissions reductions.

The Atlantic intertropical convergence zone can experience extreme northward shifts, with resultant precipitation changes. Model projections show the frequency of these extreme shifts will increase under climate change, driven by faster sea surface warming north of the Equator.

The Tibetan Plateau is an important source region of freshwater for large parts of Asia’s population. Here the authors quantify past and future terrestrial water-storage changes and find a large net loss in this region, with the Amu Darya and Indus basins as the most vulnerable hotspots.

A systematic review shows that >58% of infectious diseases confronted by humanity, via 1,006 unique pathways, have at some point been affected by climatic hazards sensitive to GHGs. These results highlight the mounting challenge for adaption and the urgent need to reduce GHG emissions.

The author investigates reproductive tradeoffs and contemporary selection of ocean acidification for a common coastal fish. Larvae are highly sensitive to acidification, with lower mortality for larger larvae, but effects are partially offset by tradeoffs between offspring size and number.

Phytoplankton vertical migration has a role in nutrient pumping and primary productivity in the oceans. Here the authors quantify the total amount of oceanic net primary productivity facilitated by this bio-pumping, under present and future warming conditions.

Ocean changes could affect the East Antarctic Ice Sheet and its contribution to sea level rise. Oceanographic observations off East Antarctica show substantial warming of mid-depth Circumpolar Deep Water, linked to poleward wind shifts, with implications for glacial melt and ice sheet stability.

Residential sector decarbonization is an essential part of mitigation, especially in the United States where per capita energy use is high by global standards. This article shows the emission reduction potential from individual and combined strategies applied to existing and new homes and to electricity supply.

Peatlands have historically acted as a carbon sink, but it is unclear how climate warming will affect this. The response of peatland carbon uptake to warming depends on the timing of summer warming; early warming leads to increased CO₂ uptake and later warming to decreased uptake.

Non-CO₂ effects must be addressed for climate-neutral aviation but are currently ignored in international climate policies. The authors provide a framework with different definitions of climate neutrality, then show how technological and demand-side mitigation efforts can help to achieve these targets.

Changes in the spatial pattern of aerosol could influence climate through effects on radiative forcing. Model experiments show that while aerosol absorption in the midlatitudes and regions of tropical descent can warm the planet, aerosol absorption in regions of tropical ascent can cool the planet.

Hydropower will be an important source to meet the increasing energy needs in Africa, yet it is also faced with growing climate-induced risks. Regional interconnections among power pools and variable renewable energy could both help to reduce capacity loss and variability.

Joint initiatives by state and non-state actors launched at climate summits are expected to enhance climate governance. However, those launched at earlier summits often perform better, as do initiatives in areas such as transport, energy and industry and ones with robust institutional arrangements.

Climate change may increase or decrease human migration. Applying an integrated assessment model with migration dynamics to income data, the authors show that the lowest-income groups have mobility reduced by 10–35%.

Falling raindrops play an essential but as-yet unquantified role in planetary climate change. Here the authors use the concept of precipitation efficiency to establish that raindrops play a critical role in predicting future tropical atmospheric circulation and extreme precipitation.

Climate change is expected to impact moisture supply, which is critical for production of food and carbon uptake by terrestrial ecosystems. A shift from ecosystem energy to water limitation is predicted between 1980 and 2100, with implications for ecosystem function under climate change.

The authors project the impacts of future changes in sea surface temperature, salinity and therefore density on the dispersal of buoyant mangrove propagules. They show that warmer and fresher oceans may increase propagule sinking rates, potentially reducing future mangrove resilience.

Detecting change in tropical cyclones is difficult from observational records. Here a reconstruction using reanalysis data of annual cyclone numbers shows they have declined globally and regionally over the twentieth century.