Research articles

The National Flood Insurance Program is a key tool for managing growing flood risk in the USA. This research shows that premiums based on local risk, rather than national averages, will generate large societal benefits, and investments in large-scale adaptation infrastructure will enhance these impacts.

The authors project changes in mean thermal stress, as well as its persistence and variability. They show complex impacts on species stability but universal increases in extinction risk, and highlight the need to go beyond average-temperature-based projections of biological performance.

The authors establish machine learning models to identify multifactor tipping points of global marine phytoplankton. They show that temperature and carbon dioxide dominate risks, and project crossing tipping points in tropical area production (50%) and resistance (41%) by 2100 under high emissions.

The authors report on the metabolic sensitivities of vertically migrating oceanic species to temperature and oxygen. They show that cold, rather than warmth, acts as an energetic barrier to these species, facilitating latitudinal range expansion under changing climate.

Climate change will impact agriculture, and this study shows cropping frequency and caloric yield are negatively impacted on the global scale by warming. While cold regions will increase cropping frequency, warm regions will see greater decreases, resulting in an overall decline in production.

The authors investigate the mechanism underlying the multigenerational resilience of a copepod to ocean acidification. They demonstrate that recovery of negative reproductive impacts is linked to epigenetic changes and highlight the need to consider plasticity in estimating future vulnerabilities.

Anthropogenic changes in ocean eddies are difficult to distinguish from natural variability due to short satellite records. Here model projections show a poleward shift and intensification of eddy kinetic energy in most eddy-rich regions; however, Gulf Stream eddy activity decreases.

Decarbonization of the aviation sector is difficult due to increasing demand and the current lack of scalable mitigation technologies. This Analysis examines pathways towards a net-zero aviation system with improved fuel and aircraft technologies, efficiency gains and contrail avoidance.

Observed warming of the Southern Hemisphere western boundary currents (WBCs) is still under debate. Here poleward shifts, associated with changes in the mid-latitude easterly winds, of the WBCs, not strengthening, are found to drive enhanced eddy generation and ocean warming in their extensions.

The authors use daily data to understand current thermal conditions across ocean depths and project changes under various future scenarios. They show varying responses in thermal range shifts on the basis of depth, highlighting complexities in predicting marine life habitat under global change.

The authors compile an underwater sonar database to understand the current and future distribution of pelagic fauna in the world’s oceans. They show loss of 3–22% of these fauna in low and mid latitudes under high-emissions scenarios, with impact reduced to less than half if global warming is contained below 2 °C.

A reliable and consistent inventory is important for the international community to track and promote the progress of climate finance. A machine learning classifier reveals that the current framework may overestimate the actual number of bilateral climate finance projects.

Assessing 3,129 species of trees and shrubs found in 164 global urban areas shows that over half of the species currently experience non-ideal climates. They project increases in risk due to climate change by 2050 and highlight cities where all species are at risk.

The authors use long-term ground and satellite data to reveal the impact of drought on autumn date of foliar senescence (DFS). They link increased drought impacts to precipitation changes and plant functional traits and project earlier DFS by the end of the century, particularly at high latitudes.

The Atlantic Niño is an important mode of tropical climate variability, but how it reacts to climate change is not well known due to model biases. Here the authors show a robust weakening of the Atlantic Niño of up to 24–48% under high emissions until the end of the century.

The Atlantic Niño/Niña is an important mode of tropical climate variability, but how it changes with global warming is not clear. Here the authors use a comprehensive model ensemble to show that the Atlantic Niño/Niña system will probably weaken under greenhouse warming.

The success of international climate cooperation relies on whether national commitments are believable under the Paris Agreement. Based on the survey with experienced climate policy professionals, the authors explore the determinants of credibility of national commitments.

For some parts of the climate system, the response to declining CO₂ concentrations does not mirror that during the preceding increase. Here the authors quantify this effect for temperature and precipitation, and show that large areas of the world show an asymmetric response to CO₂ forcing.

The authors reveal the complex interplay of factors influencing climate-related body-size changes in tree swallows. Nest warming increased chick size and success yet adult structural size decreased, and mass of males decreased but females did not, the latter linked to reproduction trade-offs.

The Arctic lowlands are characterized by a large number of lakes that cover a substantial part of the surface in some regions. Here, the authors apply a machine learning approach to satellite data to show that permafrost thaw since 2000 has caused a decline in surface water in these regions.