Research articles

Ocean acidification can alter competitive dynamics between species. Although calcareous species recruited and grew at similar rates to fleshy seaweeds in ambient and low pH conditions, at later stages, in low pH, they were rapidly overgrown. These results suggest that changes in competitive balance could indirectly lead to profound ecosystem changes in an acidified ocean.

Climatic changes could transform rivers as drought becomes more frequent with potentially severe, but largely unknown, consequences at multispecies levels of organization. Now research shows experimentally how the intensification of drought may alter the underlying structure and functioning of freshwater food webs.

Wind power is a near-zero-emissions source of energy. Although at present wind turbines are placed on the Earth’s surface, high-altitude winds offer greater possibilities for power generation. This study uses a climate model to estimate power generation for both surface and high-altitude winds, and finds that the latter provide much more power, but at a possible climate cost. However, there are unlikely to be substantial climate effects in meeting the present global demand.

This study investigates uncertainties in impact assessments when using climate projections. The uncertainties in health-related metrics combining temperature and humidity are much smaller than if the uncertainties in the two variables were independent. The finding reveals the potential for joint assessment of projection uncertainties in other variables used in impact studies.

Prediction of how climate-altered flooding regimes will affect stream channels and their communities has been limited by a lack of long-term baseline data sets across different organismal groups. Research based on 30 years of monitoring data now shows that salmon, macroinvertebrate and meiofauna communities display markedly different responses following a major flooding event.

Climate-driven sea-level rise will result in coastline retreat due to landward movement of the coastal profile. However, coastlines adjacent to tidal inlets will also be influenced by changes in the rate of basin infill and variations in rainfall. A model demonstrates that typical practice, which fails to incorporate these processes, is liable to represent only 25–50% of total coastline change.

Blanket bog—characterized by an almost complete landscape covering of undecayed organic peat—is a highly distinctive biome restricted to regions that experience hyperoceanic climatic conditions. Bioclimatic modelling suggests there will be a dramatic shrinkage of the available climatic space for blanket bogs with only a few, restricted areas of persistence.

Increased dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) concentrations in sea water have been linked to a reduction of the temperature threshold at which corals bleach, however, the mechanism underlying this change is not known. This phenomenon is now explained in terms of increased phosphatase activities and imbalanced DIN supply resulting in phosphate starvation of algael symbionts.

Climate-induced range shifts have been detected in a number of European species for which long-term survey data are available. In North America, well-organized long-term data needed to document such shifts are much less common. Now observations made by ‘citizen scientists’ help to demonstrate that a major, climate-induced shift of North American butterflies is underway.

Few studies have considered the effects of changes in climatic variability on disease incidence. Now research based on laboratory experiments and field data from Latin America shows that frog susceptibility to the pathogenic chytrid fungus is influenced by temperature variation and predictability through effects on host and parasite acclimation.

Regional climates can be modified by urban development affecting the radiation and hydrological balances. This study looks at the expanding megapolitan area in the Sun Corridor, Arizona, USA, and models local climate change in line with urban development.

Emissions from landscape fires affect both climate and air quality. This study uses satellite-derived fire estimates and atmospheric modelling to quantify the effects on health from fire emissions in southeast Asia from 1997 to 2006. Strong El Nino years are found to increase the incidence of fires, in addition to those caused by anthropogenic land use change, leading to an additional 200 days per year when the WHO atmospheric particle target is exceeded and increase adult mortality by 2%. Reducing regional deforestation and degradation, and thereby forest fires caused by land use change would therefore improve public health.

Campaigns to promote pro-environmental behaviour usually emphasize self-interested reasons for engaging with a self-transcendent cause such as protecting the environment. However, psychological evidence suggests that this approach may fail to stimulate other, different, environmental behaviours. Research shows that communicating self-transcending motives for car-sharing increases recycling rates, whereas presenting self-interested reasons alone, or combined with self-transcending motives, does not.

Grasslands have always experienced drought, but future drought conditions are likely to be more severe and frequent as climates change. This study shows that many of the world’s grasslands probably have drought-tolerant grasses that can maintain ecosystem functions, and the resilience of grasslands globally requires the maintenance of grass diversity.

Historical records show increased aridity over many land areas since 1950. This study looks at observations and model projections from 1923 to 2010, to test the ability of models to predict future drought conditions. Models are able to capture the greenhouse-gas forcing and El Niño–Southern Oscillation mode for historical periods, which inspires confidence in their projections of drought.

Understanding the response of evapotranspiration to global warming should help to predict surface climate, including heatwaves and droughts. This study shows that increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and decreasing loadings of anthropogenic (and volcanic) aerosols have led to enhanced evapotranspiration in mid and high latitudes over recent decades.

Increasing Eurasian Arctic river discharges and climate model projections show an increased wetting trend in northern high latitudes in coming years. Now a study finds that the increase in river discharge has accelerated in the past decade and that enhancement of poleward atmospheric moisture transport decisively contributes to this increase.

There is increasing concern about the potential role of climate change in facilitating the spread of bacterial waterborne infectious diseases to new areas. Now research supports these concerns by finding an association between long-term environmental changes observed in the Baltic area and the recent emergence of Vibrio infections in the region.

In 2011 the waters along the west coast of Australia—a global hotspot of biodiversity—experienced an unprecedented (in recorded times) warming event with warming anomalies of 2–4 °C that persisted for more than ten weeks. Now research shows that biodiversity patterns of temperate seaweeds, invertebrates and fishes were significantly different following the warming event.

Glacial melting in the Tibetan Plateau affects the water resources of millions of people. This study finds that—partly owing to changes in atmospheric circulations and precipitation patterns—the most intensive glacier shrinkage is in the Himalayan region, whereas glacial retreat in the Pamir Plateau region is less apparent.