Research articles

Satellite altimetry shows global mean sea-level rise acceleration; however, sparse tide-gauge data limit understanding of the longer-term trend. A hybrid method of reconstruction for 1900–2015 shows acceleration since the 1960s, linked to increases and shifts in Southern Hemisphere westerly winds.

Lack of information is a barrier to climate change adaptation, and filling the information gap is a key component of adaptation projects. However, using a randomized controlled trial, this study finds no impact of a capacity-building workshop on community water management practices in Costa Rica.

Projections of temperature often focus on maximum warming levels, with variability less often considered. Investigating decadal variability in models shows those with higher equilibrium climate sensitivity also have a higher chance of super warming, and hiatus periods.

Exposure to dangerous heat following a major tropical cyclone is possible along coastlines globally. In a warmer world, the population at risk from this combination of extreme weather could rise markedly.

Island species are at risk as the climate changes. Island conifers are used as a model species and a combination of native and non-native occurrence data allows identification of realized, tolerable and fundamental niches; linking to island size provides an estimate of extinction risk.

Physically connected habitats are required for terrestrial species to shift their liveable ranges as the tropics warm. The authors show that over half of tropical forest area is currently unable to provide such climate connectivity, and that loss of connectivity is accelerating with deforestation.

Mass summertime fish die-offs across 359 Wisconsin lakes are attributed to high lake temperatures during periods of extreme heat, while infectious disease and winter conditions are shown to be poor predictors. Die-offs are projected to double by 2050 and quadruple by 2100 in north temperate lakes.

This study uses spatially explicit simulations of a simple coral reef ecosystem to show that evolutionary responses to shifting environmental conditions fundamentally change effective conservation management strategies.

The length of the dry season over tropical forests is a determining factor of ecosystem health and drought risk. Hydroclimate and vegetation data show that dry season length has increased over the Congo rainforest since the 1980s, owing to both an earlier dry season onset and a delayed end.

To limit warming, a rapid reduction in coal use is needed. Early retirement of coal power plants by members of the Powering Past Coal Alliance, which includes mainly wealthy countries that use little coal, would have a modest climate impact. Prospects for expanding the Alliance are examined.

Bird numbers are declining globally, with sharp decreases in alpine and Arctic regions. Increases in primary productivity in the Arctic (known as greening) are linked to increased nest predation, highlighting how changing climate conditions can affect food web dynamics.

Observations of feeding interactions show that warming simplifies the structure of food webs in stream ecosystems. Simulations show that consumer diversity and changes in abundance drive this simplification and can reduce ecosystem stability.

Highly mobile taxa, like birds, occupy ecosystems that lack fixed boundaries, and tracking how these spatial regimes respond to environmental change is difficult. Avian route data show the spatial regimes of Great Plains bird communities have shifted poleward and reorganized over the past 46 years.

Climate threats to iconic places may arouse public concern and protective sentiment. This study shows that mass coral bleaching influenced sentiments, threat perceptions and values associated with the Great Barrier Reef and climate change attitudes in Australian and international tourists.

The combined impacts of climate change and deforestation are estimated to reduce Amazon tree species richness by up to 58% by 2050, whilst deforestation alone may cause 19–36%, and climate change alone 31–37%.

Observations of the tropical Pacific exhibit an increasing zonal sea surface temperature gradient, while climate models predict the opposite. This study shows that an increased gradient is consistent with greenhouse gas warming, and that climate model discrepancies arise from cold tongue biases.

Greenland Ice Sheet melt is contributing to sea-level rise; however, uncertainties exist about its future contributions. A regional climate model shows that clouds are the primary cause of this uncertainty, with melt varying significantly depending on the cloud water phase and atmospheric circulation.

Climate change is causing temperature records to be broken around the world with increased frequency. Under a business-as-usual scenario new records will be set every year for 58% of the world, whilst under heavy mitigation (RCP2.6) this would occur for 14% of the world.

Non-human primates deliver ecological processes to tropical ecosystems. In this study, a trait-based approach is used to assess the vulnerability of 607 primate taxa to cyclones and droughts, extreme climatic events that are expected to increase or intensify in the coming decades.

Climate change is projected to directly impact fishing communities through changes to habitat for marine species. A socio-ecological approach is developed to assess fishing community exposure to climate change risk and applied to New England and Mid-Atlantic (USA) fishing communities.