Research articles

The media uses specific language to report scientific knowledge to various audiences. A study focused on broadcast, newspapers and twitter reporting of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report shows that coverage and framing of the Report was influenced by its sequential three-part structure and by the availability of accessible narratives and visuals.

Cooling has been observed over the past century in the northern Atlantic, and this study presents multiple lines of evidence that suggest it may be a result of a reduction in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The decrease in this circulation, particularly after 1970, seems to be unprecedented in the past millennium and melt from the Greenland Ice Sheet may be a contributing factor.

Africa’s savannahs and shrublands have been assumed to provide a large area for the expansion of cropland with relatively little damage to the environment. Research now shows that conversion would be likely to have high carbon and biodiversity costs.

Over half of the wood harvested globally is used as fuel. Unsustainable harvesting can deplete woody biomass, contributing to forest degradation, deforestation and climate change. A spatially explicit assessment of pan-tropical woodfuel supply and demand is used to estimate where harvest exceeds regrowth and the resultant GHG emissions for 2009.

The Mekong Delta in Vietnam is facing rising sea levels that are expected to exacerbate ongoing problems of saline intrusion into agricultural land. An assessment of hydrology, agriculture and human behaviour identifies the combination of adaptation strategies that are likely to yield the most effective results for those living in the Mekong Delta.

Saturation state is shown to be the key component of marine carbonate chemistry affecting larval shell development and growth in two commercially important bivalve species.

Modelling studies of climate change impacts on phytoplankton typically consider individual properties, which ignores the complex nature of the marine environment. This work undertakes regional assessments using multiple properties, including interactions, and finds shifts of <20–300% in phytoplankton physiological rates.

Millions of people in China lack ready access to clean water and sanitation. Projected impacts of climate change may delay China’s progress towards reducing the burden of water-, sanitation- and hygiene-attributable infectious disease.

The global ocean is a major heat reservoir of the climate system. This study investigates ocean warming for 2005–2013 in the context of global sea-level rise and Earth’s energy budget, and finds that the deep ocean (below 2,000 m) has contributed negligibly to both.

A systematic analysis shows that China’s climate policy on carbon intensity reduction may not help all Chinese regions to become more efficient and could actually lock the whole nation into a long-term emission-intensive economic structure.

A project to develop an approach to adaptation to sea-level rise with a local community is described. The result is a theoretically informed, empirically tested and locally supported adaptation pathway.

Climate change is increasing ocean temperatures and acidification. This study tests the adaptive evolution of a globally important phytoplankton, Emiliania huxleyi, and finds they are able to evolve to cope with the changing marine environment.

With food demand set to double, agriculture will account for a larger proportion of total future greenhouse-gas emissions. Yet global food production and land-use scenarios have received relatively little attention in relation to climate change mitigation. This study shows that to avoid dangerous climate change, we must address food demand, as sustainable intensification of agriculture does not, in itself, suffice.

The near-term costs of greenhouse-gas emissions reduction may be offset by the air-quality co-benefits of mitigation policies. Now research estimates the monetary value of the human health benefits from air-quality improvements due to US carbon abatement policies, and finds that the benefits can offset 26–1,050% of the cost of mitigation policies.

The slowdown in global warming has been identified predominately through changes in the Pacific Ocean. This study investigates the teleconnections and seasonal changes associated with the slowdown. The present forcing from the tropical Pacific is found to produce many of the changes in atmospheric circulation, for example, changes in the upper troposphere wave patterns increase the chances of cold European winters.

The current slowdown in global warming has raised questions about the accuracy of climate model projections. This work selects models that are largely in phase with the natural variability, in this case the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, of the climate system. The selected models are able to predict the recent Pacific Ocean temperature and spatial trends.

Technology is expected to play an important role in climate change adaptation, but little is known about whether it is actually being transferred to developing countries. Research now shows that in most of the adaptation projects managed by the Global Environment Facility, technology transfer is occurring mainly in the form of early deployment of existing technologies.

Deforestation affects climate, biodiversity and other ecosystem services. This study quantifies Indonesia’s increasing rate of primary forest loss, which runs counter to the declining rates of loss in Brazil. The results highlight the value of thematically consistent and spatially and temporally explicit information in tracking forest change.

Most integrated assessment models used to estimate the long-term economic loss from current carbon emissions, and to evaluate climate policy, are deterministic. By including the risk of damage in these models, research now shows that estimates of the optimal rate of emissions abatement and carbon taxation are double the levels obtained by using the standard formulation.

Studies into the effects of climate change on crop yields have tended to focus on the average state of the climate. Now, research into the effects of adverse weather events on wheat yields in Europe suggests that the probability of single and multiple adverse events occurring within a season is expected to increase substantially by the year 2060.