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This Review assesses climate change damage functions, which relate climate variables to economic losses, and how integrated information from impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research could be used to improve estimates of economic risk.
Bias correction methods aim to remove introduced bias for climate model simulations; however, improper use can result in spurious climate signals. This Perspective considers the issues of bias correction and makes recommendations for research to overcome model biases.
Earth system models disagree on the fate of soil organic carbon under climate change. Reproducing spatial patterns of the climatological temperature sensitivity of soil carbon is a necessary condition for trustworthy simulations of the carbon-cycle–climate feedback.
Given the complexity and multi-faceted nature of policy processes, national-level policy preferences are notoriously difficult to capture. Now, research applying an automated text mining approach helps to shed light on country-level differences and priorities in the context of marine climate issues.
Water-cooled power plants will be affected by changes in water availability and temperature. A system approach examines US thermoelectric power generation and finds whilst individual plants may face constraints, overall the current system can adapt.
Soil carbon release remains a highly uncertain climate feedback. Research now shows that the temperature control on carbon turnover is more sensitive in cold climates, supporting projections of a strong carbon–climate feedback from northern soils.
The ocean is a key part of the climate system but is often neglected in individual country priorities. Analysis of Nationally Determined Contributions reveals 70% include marine issues. The level of inclusion varies dependent on country factors including vulnerability to rising seas.
Biofuels have lower CO2 emissions than fossil fuels, but competing land demands can limit expansion of production. This study shows Brazilian sugarcane ethanol could displace up to 13% of global crude oil consumption by 2045 whilst balancing forest conservation and future land demand for food.
Climate change may drive migration from affected regions. This study shows that, because skilled individuals will have greater migration opportunities, climate change may lead parents to have fewer children and invest more in each individual child, with consequences for local income inequality.
Changes in European river flow have amplified the dry-south–wet-north contrast. Model simulations show that anthropogenic climate change accounts for this change with strong decreases in the Mediterranean and weak increases in northern Europe.
Past studies suggest the North American monsoon will weaken in the future. Correcting for model sea-surface temperature biases, however, reveals a reduction in monsoon-related precipitation due to increased atmospheric stability.
Distribution modelling of vascular plants, butterflies and grasshoppers in central Europe suggests that habitat-based conservation strategies will be insufficient to save species from regional extinction under twenty-first-century climate change.
As a global media event, COP 21 had the potential to enhance understanding and motivate political action. This study shows that although media coverage reached the German public and promoted conference-specific knowledge, this did not translate into active engagement.
Projections of future climate do not typically include the effects of volcanic activity. By incorporating a range of volcanic futures into a coupled model, it is shown that volcanic forcing has quantifiable impacts on the time at which anthropogenic signatures emerge across various climate metrics.
The bleaching threat to coral reefs from warming is increasing, but risk locations are not clear. This study relates regional sea surface temperature variability to bleaching sensitivity and the future risk to coral reefs.
Understanding of anthropogenic climate change has evolved since the IPCC's First Assessment Report. Further progress relies on continued collaboration between observationalists and modellers.
As the climate changes, extreme storm and flood events are increasing in intensity and frequency, exposing more people to their impacts. Resilience planning needs to start now to limit these impacts.
