Letters

Island species are at risk as the climate changes. Island conifers are used as a model species and a combination of native and non-native occurrence data allows identification of realized, tolerable and fundamental niches; linking to island size provides an estimate of extinction risk.

Physically connected habitats are required for terrestrial species to shift their liveable ranges as the tropics warm. The authors show that over half of tropical forest area is currently unable to provide such climate connectivity, and that loss of connectivity is accelerating with deforestation.

Mass summertime fish die-offs across 359 Wisconsin lakes are attributed to high lake temperatures during periods of extreme heat, while infectious disease and winter conditions are shown to be poor predictors. Die-offs are projected to double by 2050 and quadruple by 2100 in north temperate lakes.

This study uses spatially explicit simulations of a simple coral reef ecosystem to show that evolutionary responses to shifting environmental conditions fundamentally change effective conservation management strategies.

The length of the dry season over tropical forests is a determining factor of ecosystem health and drought risk. Hydroclimate and vegetation data show that dry season length has increased over the Congo rainforest since the 1980s, owing to both an earlier dry season onset and a delayed end.

To limit warming, a rapid reduction in coal use is needed. Early retirement of coal power plants by members of the Powering Past Coal Alliance, which includes mainly wealthy countries that use little coal, would have a modest climate impact. Prospects for expanding the Alliance are examined.

Bird numbers are declining globally, with sharp decreases in alpine and Arctic regions. Increases in primary productivity in the Arctic (known as greening) are linked to increased nest predation, highlighting how changing climate conditions can affect food web dynamics.

Observations of feeding interactions show that warming simplifies the structure of food webs in stream ecosystems. Simulations show that consumer diversity and changes in abundance drive this simplification and can reduce ecosystem stability.

Observations of the tropical Pacific exhibit an increasing zonal sea surface temperature gradient, while climate models predict the opposite. This study shows that an increased gradient is consistent with greenhouse gas warming, and that climate model discrepancies arise from cold tongue biases.

Greenland Ice Sheet melt is contributing to sea-level rise; however, uncertainties exist about its future contributions. A regional climate model shows that clouds are the primary cause of this uncertainty, with melt varying significantly depending on the cloud water phase and atmospheric circulation.

Climate change is causing temperature records to be broken around the world with increased frequency. Under a business-as-usual scenario new records will be set every year for 58% of the world, whilst under heavy mitigation (RCP2.6) this would occur for 14% of the world.

Climate change is projected to directly impact fishing communities through changes to habitat for marine species. A socio-ecological approach is developed to assess fishing community exposure to climate change risk and applied to New England and Mid-Atlantic (USA) fishing communities.

There is a growing need to find cost-effective options for greenhouse gas abatement. In this study, spatially disaggregated marginal abatement cost curves are developed to facilitate economic appraisal of tropical reforestation.

Natural abundance radiocarbon is used to evaluate temperature sensitivities across Arctic soil carbon pools from Utqiaġvik, Alaska. Temperature sensitivity was consistent across pools irrespective of native decomposition rate.

Public concern about climate change is difficult to motivate. This study finds an increase in climate change concern among parents after their middle school-aged children participated in a climate change school curriculum.

Fifty years of monthly observation of rainforest canopy trees in the Central Amazon reveals that drought, heat, storms and extreme rain can all increase tree mortality. Pioneers, softwoods and evergreen functional groups were particularly vulnerable.

The frequency of extreme weather events is increasing due to climate change. Here, the authors exploit regional variation in the UK summer heatwave of 2018 and find that exposure to extreme temperatures influenced concern about energy security.

The life-cycle GHG emissions from plastics are expected to increase. Here, it is shown that an aggressive strategy of decarbonizing energy infrastructure, improving recycling, adopting bio-based plastics and reducing demand is required to keep emissions below 2015 levels.

Melting glaciers are increasing Himalayan glacial lakes and potentially the risk of outburst floods. An advanced automated algorithm identifies glacial lake outburst floods from Landsat images since the late 1980s to improve understanding of these events and trends in their frequency.

Uncertainties are often cited as a reason for mitigation inaction. Here, millions of scenarios are evaluated to assess the relative importance of human–earth system uncertainties and policy variables. The growth rate of global abatement is found to be the primary driver of long-term warming.