Commentary

The recent El Niño event has elevated the rise in CO₂ concentration this year. Here, using emissions, sea surface temperature data and a climate model, we forecast that the CO₂ concentration at Mauna Loa will for the first time remain above 400 ppm all year, and hence for our lifetimes.

The academic community could make rapid progress on quantifying the impacts of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, but a refocusing of research priorities is needed in order to provide reliable advice.

In the aftermath of COP21, potential post-2030 emission trajectories and their consistency with the 2 °C target are a core concern for the ocean scientific community in light of the end-century risks of impact scenarios.

The value of the social sciences to climate change research is well recognized, but notable gaps remain in the literature on adaptation in agriculture. Contributions focus on farmer behaviour, with important research regarding gender, social networks and institutions remaining under-represented.

An IPCC Special Report on 1.5 °C should focus on resolving fundamental scientific and political uncertainties, not fixate on developing unachievable mitigation pathways.

Insurance is gaining importance in and beyond the climate negotiations and offers many opportunities to improve climate risk management in developing countries. However, some caution is needed, if current momentum is to lead to genuine progress in making the most vulnerable more resilient to climate change.

It has been claimed that the early-2000s global warming slowdown or hiatus, characterized by a reduced rate of global surface warming, has been overstated, lacks sound scientific basis, or is unsupported by observations. The evidence presented here contradicts these claims.

Insights about climate are being uncovered thanks to improved capacities to observe ocean salinity, an essential climate variable. However, cracks are beginning to appear in the ocean observing system that require prompt attention if we are to maintain the existing, hard-won capacity into the near future.

The Paris Agreement contains an ambition to limit global warming to no more than 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, changing the context for policy-relevant research and extending a challenge to the IPCC and researchers.

Humans are adapting to climate change, but often in ways that further compound our effects on nature, and in turn the impact of climate change on us.

Implementation of policies to reduce forest loss challenges the Earth observation community to improve forest monitoring. An important avenue for progress is the use of new satellite missions and the combining of optical and synthetic aperture radar sensor data.

Social sciences and the humanities can utilize the concept of the Anthropocene to add meaning to climate research.

Using food prices to assess climate change impacts on food security is misleading. Differential impacts on income require a broader measure of household well-being, such as changes in absolute poverty.

Rapid growth in global CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels and industry ceased in the past two years, despite continued economic growth. Decreased coal use in China was largely responsible, coupled with slower global growth in petroleum and faster growth in renewables.

Policymakers have committed to tackling loss and damage as a result of climate change across three high-profile international processes. Framing post-2015 development as a means to address loss and damage can synergize these agendas.

Tropical forests could offset much of the carbon released from the declining use of fossil fuels, helping to stabilize and then reduce atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, thereby providing a bridge to a low-fossil-fuel future.

More effort should be put into standardization as a route to achieving international consensus and action on climate change. Cities are a good example of what is being achieved through this arguably unfashionable mechanism.

The European Commission needs to amend its new Scientific Advice Mechanism. Highly integrated, participatory assessments of policy alternatives are required for multidimensional, value-laden policy issues such as the European Union's climate and energy policies.

With the concept of climate services rapidly climbing research and research-funding agendas worldwide, the time is ripe for a debate about the objectives, scope and content of such services.

After Paris, policymakers will need new goals for protecting the climate. Science can help with a basket of measures because 'climate change' isn't just about temperature.