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Historians and scientists have long theorized that the global climate and global patterns of violence might be connected, but this idea has never been directly tested with data. Now a new analysis examines whether civil conflicts might be linked to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the dominant mode of interannual variability in the modern global climate. Using data on tropical countries collected between 1950 and 2004, the study finds that the probability of new civil conflicts breaking out in El Niño years is double that seen in cooler La Niña years. Overall, these findings suggest that the ENSO may have played a part in initiating 21% of all civil conflicts since 1950. This study represents the first demonstration that the stability of modern societies is associated with the global climate. The cover image shows the number of months per year, with blue equal to zero and red equal to twelve, that surface temperatures warm in response to El Niño. The warming of the tropics is caused by an atmospheric Kelvin wave generated in the Pacific Ocean and trapped near the Equator by Earths rotation. Cover image: Solomon M. Hsiang.
Conflict poisons both land and sea, and lost natural resources lead to more violence. Ecology is an unlikely objective during wartime, but one that can help to secure peace.
The week in science: black scientists disadvantaged at NIH; lab safety at Yale; and the launch of the 'eBay for science' — a website for outsourcing research.
Some of the most powerful earthquakes emanate from remote ocean-floor faults. Geophysicists are now laying networks of sensors to keep tabs on these hidden killers.
Concerns about antibiotics focus on bacterial resistance — but permanent changes to our protective flora could have more serious consequences, says Martin Blaser.
With fossil-fuel supplies set to dwindle, the race is on to find ways of making fuels from renewable sources of biomass. Two experts discuss the broad strategies — biochemical and thermochemical — that have emerged as practical approaches.
Nanoscale devices have now been made that mimic biological connections in the brain by responding to the relative timing of signals. This achievement might lead to the construction of artificial neural networks for computing applications.
Most galaxies harbour giant black holes; some are 'silent' whereas others produce copious amounts of radiation. The awakening of a silent monster has just been witnessed as it breaks apart and swallows a nearby star. See Letters p.421 & p.425
The idea that climate influences the onset of wars is enticing, but controversial. A study now finds a convincing correlation between global climate and civil conflict in countries affected by the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. See Letter p.438
Infection with a harmless bacterium makes the mosquitoes that transmit dengue virus resistant to viral infection. The resistant population can rapidly replace the natural, susceptible population. See Letters p.450 & p.454
In the search for a job, contacts matter. Peter J. Feibelman explains how to assemble a personal 'old boy' network while still a PhD student or postdoc.