Abstract
Changes in extreme precipitation are among the most impact-relevant consequences of climate warming1, yet regional projections remain uncertain due to natural variability2 and model deficiencies in relevant physical processes3,4. To better understand changes in extreme precipitation, they may be decomposed into contributions from atmospheric thermodynamics and dynamics5,6,7, but these are typically diagnosed with spatially aggregated data8,9 or using a statistical approach that is not valid at all locations10,11. Here we decompose the forced response of daily regional scale extreme precipitation in climate-model simulations into thermodynamic and dynamic contributions using a robust physical diagnostic8. We show that thermodynamics alone would lead to a spatially homogeneous fractional increase, which is consistent across models and dominates the sign of the change in most regions. However, the dynamic contribution modifies regional responses, amplifying increases, for instance, in the Asian monsoon region, but weakening them across the Mediterranean, South Africa and Australia. Over subtropical oceans, the dynamic contribution is strong enough to cause robust regional decreases in extreme precipitation, which may partly result from a poleward circulation shift. The dynamic contribution is key to reducing uncertainties in future projections of regional extreme precipitation.
This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution
Access options
Access Nature and 54 other Nature Portfolio journals
Get Nature+, our best-value online-access subscription
$29.99 / 30 days
cancel any time
Subscribe to this journal
Receive 12 print issues and online access
$209.00 per year
only $17.42 per issue
Buy this article
- Purchase on Springer Link
- Instant access to full article PDF
Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout
Similar content being viewed by others
References
IPCC in Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaption (eds Field, C. B. et al.) 231–290 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2012).
Fischer, E. M., Beyerle, U. & Knutti, R. Robust spatially aggregated projections of climate extremes. Nat. Clim. Change 3, 1033–1038 (2013).
Wilcox, E. M. & Donner, L. J. The frequency of extreme rain events in satellite rain-rate estimates and an atmospheric general circulation model. J. Clim. 20, 53–69 (2007).
Rossow, W. B., Mekonnen, A., Pearl, C. & Goncalves, W. Tropical precipitation extremes. J. Clim. 26, 1457–1466 (2013).
Trenberth, K. E. Conceptual framework for changes of extremes of the hydrological cycle with climate change. Climatic Change 42, 327–339 (1999).
Allen, M. R. & Ingram, W. J. Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrological cycle. Nature 419, 224–232 (2002).
O’Gorman, P. A. Precipitation extremes under climate change. Curr. Clim. Change Rep. 1, 49–59 (2015).
O’Gorman, P. A. & Schneider, T. The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 106, 14773–14777 (2009).
Sugiyama, M., Shiogama, H. & Emori, S. Precipitation extreme changes exceeding moisture content increase in MIROC and IPCC climate models. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 107, 571–575 (2010).
Emori, S. & Brown, S. J. Dynamic and thermodynamic changes in mean and extreme precipitation under changed climate. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L17706 (2005).
Chen, G., Ming, Y., Singer, N. D. & Lu, J. Testing the Clausius–Clapeyron constraint on the aerosol-induced changes in mean and extreme precipitation. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, L04807 (2011).
Kharin, V. V., Zwiers, F. W., Zhang, X. & Wehner, M. Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the CMIP5 ensemble. Climatic Change 119, 345–357 (2013).
Pendergrass, A. G. & Hartmann, D. L. Changes in the distribution of rain frequency and intensity in response to global warming. J. Clim. 27, 8372–8383 (2014).
Westra, S., Alexander, L. V. & Zwiers, F. W. Global increasing trends in annual maximum daily precipitation. J. Clim. 26, 3904–3918 (2013).
Fischer, E. M. & Knutti, R. Detection of spatially aggregated changes in temperature and precipitation extremes. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, 547–554 (2014).
Donat, M. G., Lowry, A. L., Alexander, L. V., O’Gorman, P. A. & Maher, N. More extreme precipitation in the world’s dry and wet regions. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 508–513 (2016).
Fischer, E. M., Sedláček, J., Hawkins, E. & Knutti, R. Models agree on forced response pattern of precipitation and temperature extremes. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, 8554–8562 (2014).
Muller, C. J., O’Gorman, P. A. & Back, L. E. Intensification of precipitation extremes with warming in a cloud-resolving model. J. Clim. 24, 2784–2800 (2011).
Singh, M. S. & O’Gorman, P. A. Influence of microphysics on the scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, 6037–6044 (2014).
Vallis, G. K., Zurita-Gotor, P., Cairns, C. & Kidston, J. Response of the large-scale structure of the atmosphere to global warming. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 141, 1479–1501 (2015).
He, J. & Soden, B. J. A re-examination of the projected subtropical precipitation decline. Nat. Clim. Change 7, 53–57 (2017).
Pfahl, S. & Wernli, H. Quantifying the relevance of cyclones for precipitation extremes. J. Clim. 25, 6770–6780 (2012).
Zappa, G., Shaffrey, L. C., Hodges, K. I., Sansom, P. G. & Stephenson, D. B. A multimodel assessment of future projections of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones in the CMIP5 climate models. J. Clim. 26, 5846–5862 (2013).
Zappa, G., Hawcroft, M. K., Shaffrey, L., Black, E. & Brayshaw, D. J. Extratropical cyclones and the projected decline of winter Mediterranean precipitation in the CMIP5 models. Clim. Dynam. 45, 1727–1738 (2015).
Lau, W. K. M. & Kim, K.-M. Robust Hadley Circulation changes and increasing global dryness due to CO2 warming from CMIP5 model projections. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 112, 3630–3653 (2015).
Huang, P. Time-varying response of ENSO-induced tropical Pacific rainfall to global warming in CMIP5 models. Part I: multimodel ensemble results. J. Clim. 29, 5763–5778 (2016).
Vecchi, G. A. et al. Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing. Nature 441, 73–76 (2006).
Turner, A. G. & Annamalai, H. Climate change and the South Asian summer monsoon. Nat. Clim. Change 2, 587–595 (2012).
O’Gorman, P. A. Sensitivity of tropical precipitation extremes to climate change. Nat. Geosci. 5, 697–700 (2012).
Shepherd, T. Atmospheric circulation as a source of uncertainty in climate change projections. Nat. Geosci. 7, 703–708 (2014).
Trenberth, K. E., Fasullo, J. T. & Shepherd, T. G. Attribution of climate extremes. Nat. Clim. Change 5, 725–730 (2015).
Simmons, A. J., Untch, A., Jakob, C., Kallberg, P. & Undén, P. Stratospheric water vapour and tropical tropopause temperatures in ECMWF analyses and multi-year simulations. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 125, 353–386 (1999).
Huffman, G. J. et al. Global precipitation at one-degree daily resolution from multi-satellite observations. J. Hydrometeorol. 2, 36–50 (2001).
Xiang, B., Zhao, M., Held, I. M. & Golaz, J.-C. Predicting the severity of spurious “double ITCZ” problem in CMIP5 coupled models from AMIP simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett. 44, 1520–1527 (2017).
Herold, N., Behrangi, A. & Alexander, L. S. Large uncertainties in observed daily precipitation extremes over land. J. Geophys. Res. 122, 668–681 (2017).
Dee, D. P. et al. The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 137, 553–597 (2011).
Acknowledgements
We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modelling groups for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP the US Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. We thank NASA for providing GPCP precipitation data and ECMWF for giving access to ERA-Interim reanalysis data. P.A.O’G. acknowledges support from NSF AGS-1552195. We thank S. Fueglistaler for helpful discussions.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
S.P. initiated the study, performed the analysis based on code provided by P.A.O’G. and drafted the paper. All authors discussed the results and edited the manuscript.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Competing interests
The authors declare no competing financial interests.
Supplementary information
Supplementary Information
Supplementary Information (PDF 3292 kb)
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Pfahl, S., O’Gorman, P. & Fischer, E. Understanding the regional pattern of projected future changes in extreme precipitation. Nature Clim Change 7, 423–427 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3287
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3287
This article is cited by
-
Future changes in the precipitation regime over the Arabian Peninsula with special emphasis on UAE: insights from NEX-GDDP CMIP6 model simulations
Scientific Reports (2024)
-
The economic commitment of climate change
Nature (2024)
-
Locally opposite responses of the 2023 Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei extreme rainfall event to global anthropogenic warming
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science (2024)
-
Plant responses to changing rainfall frequency and intensity
Nature Reviews Earth & Environment (2024)
-
Climate warming contributes to the record-shattering 2022 Pakistan rainfall
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science (2024)