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US maize adaptability

Nature Climate Change volume 3, pages 690–691 (2013)Cite this article

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To the Editor —

Butler and Huybers1 argue that without adaptation a 2 °C increase in temperature would decrease maize yields in the US by 14%, but that with adaptation the same temperature increase would decrease yields by only 6%. Butler and Huybers modelled adaptation as decreasing sensitivity to extreme heat (degree days above 29 °C, which they call killing degree days; KDD). Here we show that their conclusions are based on an unjustified interpretation of the data, and that when properly analysed, the data do not support their statement that “losses are almost certainly overestimated if adaptation is not accounted for.”

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References

  1. Butler, E. & Huybers, P. Nature Clim. Change 3, 68–72 (2013).

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  2. Lobell, D. B. et al. Nature Clim. Change 3, 497–501 (2013).

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  3. Schlenker, W. & Roberts, M. J. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 106, 15594–15598 (2009).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University, 420 West 118th Street, 10027, New York, USA

    Wolfram Schlenker

  2. National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, 02138, Massachusetts, USA

    Wolfram Schlenker

  3. Department of Economics and Sea Grant College Program, University of Hawaii at Manoa, 2424 Maile Way, Honolulu, 96822, Hawaii, USA

    Michael J. Roberts

  4. Department of Environmental Earth System Science and Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, 473 Via Ortega, Stanford, 94305, California, USA

    David B. Lobell

Authors
  1. Wolfram Schlenker
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  2. Michael J. Roberts
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  3. David B. Lobell
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Correspondence to Wolfram Schlenker.

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Schlenker, W., Roberts, M. & Lobell, D. US maize adaptability. Nature Clim Change 3, 690–691 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1959

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