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| Open AccessCultural hitchhiking and competition between patrilineal kin groups explain the post-Neolithic Y-chromosome bottleneck
A population bottleneck 5000-7000 years ago in human males, but not females, has been inferred across several African, European and Asian populations. Here, Zeng and colleagues synthesize theory and data to suggest that competition among patrilineal kin groups produced the bottleneck pattern.
- Tian Chen Zeng
- , Alan J. Aw
- & Marcus W. Feldman
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Article
| Open AccessThe development of human social learning across seven societies
Social learning is a crucial human ability. Here, the authors examined children in 7 cultures and show that children’s reliance on social information and their preference to follow the majority vary across societies. However, the ontogeny of majority preference follows the same, U-shaped pattern across all societies.
- Edwin J. C. van Leeuwen
- , Emma Cohen
- & Daniel B. M. Haun
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Article
| Open AccessThe rise of South–South trade and its effect on global CO2 emissions
The rapid growth of South–South trade reflects a new phase of globalization. Here the authors show that some energy-intensive production activities, particularly raw materials and intermediate goods, and related CO2 emissions are relocating from China and India to other developing countries.
- Jing Meng
- , Zhifu Mi
- & Steven J. Davis
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Article
| Open AccessGender inequity in speaking opportunities at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting
Speaking at a scientific conference helps spread scientific results and is also fundamental for career advancement. Here the authors show that at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, the largest Earth and space science conference, women are offered speaking opportunities less often than men overall.
- Heather L. Ford
- , Cameron Brick
- & Petra S. Dekens
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Article
| Open AccessBurned forests impact water supplies
Wildland fire seasons in the United States are getting longer, yet the impacts of fire on water availability at the regional scale are unclear. Here the authors show that fire increased annual river flow throughout the West, while prescribed burns in the subtropical Southeast had limited impact on river flow.
- Dennis W. Hallema
- , Ge Sun
- & Steven G. McNulty
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Article
| Open AccessOptimal diversification strategies in the networks of related products and of related research areas
The probability that a region will develop a particular research activity increases with the number of similar activities in neighboring regions. Here the authors analyze diffusion strategies and show that it is not only important to know which activities to target but also when to target them.
- Aamena Alshamsi
- , Flávio L. Pinheiro
- & Cesar A. Hidalgo
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Article
| Open AccessTwo-thirds of global cropland area impacted by climate oscillations
Climate oscillations such as El Niño Southern Oscillation may impact global crop production. Here, the authors, using a unified framework of multiple climate oscillations, find that from 1961 to 2010 over two-thirds of the global cropland is located where crop productivity is influenced by climate oscillations.
- Matias Heino
- , Michael J. Puma
- & Matti Kummu
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Article
| Open AccessPre-Columbian earth-builders settled along the entire southern rim of the Amazon
Previous studies of Pre-Columbian earthworks in the Amazon basin have left a gap in the Upper Tapajós Basin (UTB). Here, the authors detect 104 Pre-Columbian earthworks in the UTB, suggesting continuous occupation across southern Amazonia and higher population densities than previously estimated.
- Jonas Gregorio de Souza
- , Denise Pahl Schaan
- & José Iriarte
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Comment
| Open AccessStrategically growing the urban forest will improve our world
- Theodore A. Endreny
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Article
| Open AccessSpatial variation of the rain–snow temperature threshold across the Northern Hemisphere
Land surface models often use a spatially uniform air temperature threshold when partitioning rain and snow. Here Jennings et al. show that the threshold varies significantly across the Northern Hemisphere and that threshold selection is a large source of uncertainty in snowfall simulations.
- Keith S. Jennings
- , Taylor S. Winchell
- & Noah P. Molotch
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Article
| Open AccessStructural change as a key component for agricultural non-CO2 mitigation efforts
To achieve the climate target of the Paris Agreement substantial emission reductions will be required across economic sectors. Here the authors show that agriculture can make a significant contribution to non-CO2 mitigation efforts through structural change in the livestock sector and the deployment of technical options.
- Stefan Frank
- , Robert Beach
- & Michael Obersteiner
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Article
| Open AccessProtecting tropical forests from the rapid expansion of rubber using carbon payments
Expansion of rubber plantations threatens tropical forest carbon stocks and biodiversity, but may be dis-incentivised using carbon finance. Here, Warren-Thomas et al. use forest and agricultural data for Cambodia to show that carbon prices of $30–$51 per tCO2 are needed to match forest protection costs.
- Eleanor M. Warren-Thomas
- , David P. Edwards
- & Paul M. Dolman
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Article
| Open AccessThe mark of vegetation change on Earth’s surface energy balance
Depending on where and when it occurs, vegetation cover change can affect local climate by altering the surface energy balance. Based on satellite data, this study provides the first data-driven assessment of such effects for multiple vegetation transitions at global scale.
- Gregory Duveiller
- , Josh Hooker
- & Alessandro Cescatti
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| Open AccessEnergy use and life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of drones for commercial package delivery
The use of drones to deliver commercial packages is poised to become a new industry. Here the authors show that replacing truck delivery by drones can reduce greenhouse gas emissions and energy use when the drone size and additional warehousing requirements are limited.
- Joshuah K. Stolaroff
- , Constantine Samaras
- & Daniel Ceperley
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Article
| Open AccessResidential energy use emissions dominate health impacts from exposure to ambient particulate matter in India
Exposure to ambient particulate matter is a key contributor to disease in India and source attribution is vital for pollution control. Here the authors use a high-resolution regional model to show residential emissions dominate particulate matter concentrations and associated premature mortality.
- Luke Conibear
- , Edward W. Butt
- & Dominick V. Spracklen
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Article
| Open AccessPatterns of island change and persistence offer alternate adaptation pathways for atoll nations
Inundation and erosion could make many atoll islands uninhabitable over the next century. Here the authors present an analysis of change in the atoll nation of Tuvalu that shows a 2.9% increase in land area over the past four decades, with 74% of islands increasing in size, despite rising sea levels.
- Paul S. Kench
- , Murray R. Ford
- & Susan D. Owen
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Article
| Open AccessHeuristic and optimal policy computations in the human brain during sequential decision-making
Alhough humans often make a series of related decisions, it is unknown whether this is done by relying on optimal or heuristic strategies. Here, the authors show that humans rely on both the best heuristic and the optimal policy, and that these strategies are controlled by parts of the medial prefrontal cortex.
- Christoph W. Korn
- & Dominik R. Bach
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Article
| Open AccessCooperating with machines
Artificial intelligence is now superior to humans in many fully competitive games, such as Chess, Go, and Poker. Here the authors develop a machine-learning algorithm that can cooperate effectively with humans when cooperation is beneficial but nontrivial, something humans are remarkably good at.
- Jacob W. Crandall
- , Mayada Oudah
- & Iyad Rahwan
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Article
| Open AccessAcculturation orientations affect the evolution of a multicultural society
Cross-cultural interactions can cause cultural change, a process known as acculturation. Here, Erten et al. develop a model of cultural change under immigration, considering individuals’ orientations towards acculturation, and find that willingness to interact cross-culturally and resident cultural conservatism favour cultural coexistence.
- E. Yagmur Erten
- , Pieter van den Berg
- & Franz J. Weissing
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Article
| Open AccessFactoring economic costs into conservation planning may not improve agreement over priorities for protection
Prioritising areas for conservation is hindered by disagreements over ecological targets. Here, Armsworth et al. combine a simulation approach and case study to test if considering economic return on investment aids in prioritisation, and find that its impact on reaching agreements varies greatly.
- Paul R. Armsworth
- , Heather B. Jackson
- & Nathan A. Sutton
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Article
| Open AccessMorphology of travel routes and the organization of cities
Complex networks are a useful tool to investigate the structure of cities and their street networks. Here the authors investigate the shape of travel routes in 92 cities and define a metric called inness which reveals connections between common urban features in cities with similar inness profiles.
- Minjin Lee
- , Hugo Barbosa
- & Gourab Ghoshal
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Article
| Open AccessMultinational patterns of seasonal asymmetry in human movement influence infectious disease dynamics
Fine scale mobile phone data is improving capacity to understand seasonal patterns in human movement. Here, the authors use multi-year movement data across three nations, as well as a model of pathogen spread, to understand the consequences of seasonal travel for disease dynamics.
- Amy Wesolowski
- , Elisabeth zu Erbach-Schoenberg
- & C. J. E. Metcalf
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Article
| Open AccessSerendipity and strategy in rapid innovation
Organizations can take different approaches to innovation: they can either follow a strategic process or a serendipitous perspective. Here Fink et al. develop a statistical model to analyse how components combine to obtain a product and thus explain the mechanism behind the two approaches.
- T. M. A. Fink
- , M. Reeves
- & R. S. Farr
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Article
| Open AccessCounter-intuitive influence of Himalayan river morphodynamics on Indus Civilisation urban settlements
The Bronze-age Indus civilisation (4.6–3.9 ka) was thought to have been linked to the development of water resources in the Himalayas. Here, the authors show that along the former course of the Sutlej River the Indus settlements developed along the abandoned river valley rather than an active Himalayan river.
- Ajit Singh
- , Kristina J. Thomsen
- & Sanjeev Gupta
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Article
| Open AccessChinese CO2 emission flows have reversed since the global financial crisis
China has entered a new normal phase of economic development with a changing role in global trade. Here the authors show that emissions embodied in China’s exports declined from 2007 to 2012, while developing countries become the major destinations of China’s export emissions.
- Zhifu Mi
- , Jing Meng
- & Klaus Hubacek
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Article
| Open AccessUniversal model of individual and population mobility on diverse spatial scales
Understanding and accurate prediction of human mobility is of increasing importance, but a universal framework is lacking. Here, the authors develop a unified model that accurately predicts both individual and population mobility and scaling behaviors on diverse spatial scales.
- Xiao-Yong Yan
- , Wen-Xu Wang
- & Ying-Cheng Lai
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Article
| Open AccessStrategies for feeding the world more sustainably with organic agriculture
Organic agriculture requires fewer inputs but produces lower yields than conventional farming. Here, via a modeling approach, Muller et al. predict that if food waste and meat consumption are reduced, organic agriculture could feed the world without requiring cropland expansion.
- Adrian Muller
- , Christian Schader
- & Urs Niggli
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Article
| Open AccessPoverty eradication in a carbon constrained world
The consequences of poverty eradication on limiting warming to 2 °C are not fully clear. Here, Hubacek et al. find that while ending extreme poverty does not jeopardize the climate target, moving everybody to a modest expenditure level increases required mitigation rate by 27%
- Klaus Hubacek
- , Giovanni Baiocchi
- & Anand Patwardhan
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Article
| Open AccessWater conservation benefits of urban heat mitigation
Cool roofs have been shown to mitigate heat in urban areas, but their impact on water conservation has not been examined. Here the authors conduct simulations with an urban canopy model to show that implementation of cool roofs in California can also reduce outdoor water consumption by up to 9%.
- Pouya Vahmani
- & Andrew D. Jones
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Article
| Open AccessVolcanic suppression of Nile summer flooding triggers revolt and constrains interstate conflict in ancient Egypt
The degree to which human societies have responded to past climatic changes remains unclear. Here, using a novel combination of approaches, the authors show how volcanically-induced suppression of Nile summer flooding led to societal unrest in Ptolemaic Egypt (305–30 BCE).
- Joseph G. Manning
- , Francis Ludlow
- & Jennifer R. Marlon
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Article
| Open AccessHighly compressed water structure observed in a perchlorate aqueous solution
Significant amounts of different perchlorate salts have been discovered on the surface of Mars. Here, the authors show that magnesium perchlorate has a major impact on water structure in solution, providing insight into how an aqueous fluid might exist under the sub-freezing conditions present on Mars.
- Samuel Lenton
- , Natasha H. Rhys
- & Lorna Dougan
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Article
| Open AccessSample composition alters associations between age and brain structure
The influence of sample composition on human neuroimaging results is unknown. Here, the authors weight a large, community-based sample to better reflect the US population and describe how applying these sample weights changes conclusions about age-related variation in brain structure.
- Kaja Z. LeWinn
- , Margaret A. Sheridan
- & Katie A. McLaughlin
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| Open AccessPan-Antarctic analysis aggregating spatial estimates of Adélie penguin abundance reveals robust dynamics despite stochastic noise
Adélie penguins are a key Antarctic indicator species, but data patchiness has challenged efforts to link population dynamics to key drivers. Che-Castaldo et al. resolve this issue using a pan-Antarctic Bayesian model to infer missing data, and show that spatial aggregation leads to more robust inference regarding dynamics.
- Christian Che-Castaldo
- , Stephanie Jenouvrier
- & Heather J. Lynch
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Article
| Open AccessTrade-driven relocation of air pollution and health impacts in China
International and domestic interprovincial trade of China are entangled, but their health impacts have been treated separately in earlier studies. Here Wang. quantify the complex impacts of trade on public health across China within an integrative framework.
- Haikun Wang
- , Yanxu Zhang
- & Michael B. McElroy
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Article
| Open AccessPrinting of small molecular medicines from the vapor phase
Traditional approaches used in the pharmaceutical industry are not precise or versatile enough for customized medicine formulation and manufacture. Here the authors produce a method to form coatings, with accurate dosages, as well as a means of closely controlling dissolution kinetics.
- Olga Shalev
- , Shreya Raghavan
- & Max Shtein
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Article
| Open AccessPeer punishment promotes enforcement of bad social norms
Punishment by peers can enforce social norms, such as contributing to a public good. Here, Abbink and colleagues show that individuals will enforce norms even when contributions reduce the net benefit of the group, resulting in the maintenance of wasteful contributions.
- Klaus Abbink
- , Lata Gangadharan
- & John Thrasher
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| Open AccessReconciling irrigated food production with environmental flows for Sustainable Development Goals implementation
Sustainable development goals for water use and food production are in conflict, but this could be reduced by proper water management. Here, violations of global environmental flow requirements for rivers are quantified and related to reconciliation potentials in irrigated and rainfed agriculture.
- Jonas Jägermeyr
- , Amandine Pastor
- & Dieter Gerten
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Article
| Open AccessPrevalence of sexual dimorphism in mammalian phenotypic traits
Systemic dissection of sexually dimorphic phenotypes in mice is lacking. Here, Karp and the International Mouse Phenotype Consortium show that approximately 10% of qualitative traits and 56% of quantitative traits in mice as measured in laboratory setting are sexually dimorphic.
- Natasha A. Karp
- , Jeremy Mason
- & Jacqueline K. White
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Article
| Open AccessEnergy efficiency to reduce residential electricity and natural gas use under climate change
Climate change may alter building energy demand. Here, the authors quantify changes in residential electricity and natural gas demand in Los Angeles County and find that rising temperatures may increase electricity demand by 41–87% between 2020 and 2060, but improved efficiency could lower this increase to 28%.
- Janet L. Reyna
- & Mikhail V. Chester
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Article
| Open AccessPayoff information hampers the evolution of cooperation
Knowledge of payoffs has been assumed to be weakly beneficial for the emergence of cooperation between humans. Here the authors provide evidence to the contrary, showing that during interactions in a competitive environment access to information about payoffs leads to less cooperative behaviour.
- Steffen Huck
- , Johannes Leutgeb
- & Ryan Oprea
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Article
| Open AccessLife cycle assessment needs predictive spatial modelling for biodiversity and ecosystem services
Life cycle assessments are used by corporations to determine the sustainability of raw source materials. Here, Chaplin-Krameret al. develop an improved life cycle assessment approach incorporating spatial variation in land-use change, and apply this framework to a bioplastic case study.
- Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer
- , Sarah Sim
- & Gretchen Daily
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Editorial
| Open AccessFake news threatens a climate literate world
As the challenges and environmental consequences of climate change manifest, the need for a society of science-literate citizens is becoming increasingly apparent. Achieving this, however, is no easy task, particularly given the proliferation of fake news and the seeds of confusion it can sow
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Article
| Open AccessExercise contagion in a global social network
Some argue that health-related behaviours, such as obesity, are contagious, but empirical evidence of health contagion remains inconclusive. Here, using a large scale quasi-experiment in a global network of runners, Aral and Nicolaides show that this type of contagion exists in fitness behaviours.
- Sinan Aral
- & Christos Nicolaides
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Article
| Open AccessLong-term trends in the intensity and relative toxicity of herbicide use
Quantifying the toxicity of herbicides applied in the field is difficult. Here, the author applies a quotient to evaluate changes in relative toxicity over the past 25 years and finds that increased herbicide use does not necessarily constitute increased toxicity.
- Andrew R. Kniss
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Article
| Open AccessArchaeogenomic evidence reveals prehistoric matrilineal dynasty
In ancient cultures without a writing system, it is difficult to infer the basis of status and rank. Here the authors analyse ancient DNA from nine presumed elite individuals buried successively over a 300-year period at Chaco Canyon, and show evidence of matrilineal relationships.
- Douglas J. Kennett
- , Stephen Plog
- & George H. Perry
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Article
| Open AccessPathways towards instability in financial networks
The spread of instabilities in financial systems, similarly to ecosystems, is influenced by topological features of the underlying network structures. Here the authors show, independently of specific financial models, that market integration and diversification can drive the system towards instability.
- Marco Bardoscia
- , Stefano Battiston
- & Guido Caldarelli
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Article
| Open AccessConsistent negative response of US crops to high temperatures in observations and crop models
Future agricultural productivity is threatened by high temperatures. Here, using 9 crop models, Schaubergeret al. find that yield losses due to temperatures >30 °C are captured by current models where yield losses by mild heat stress occur mainly due to water stress and can be buffered by irrigation.
- Bernhard Schauberger
- , Sotirios Archontoulis
- & Katja Frieler