Featured
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| Open AccessStrategies for feeding the world more sustainably with organic agriculture
Organic agriculture requires fewer inputs but produces lower yields than conventional farming. Here, via a modeling approach, Muller et al. predict that if food waste and meat consumption are reduced, organic agriculture could feed the world without requiring cropland expansion.
- Adrian Muller
- , Christian Schader
- & Urs Niggli
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| Open AccessPoverty eradication in a carbon constrained world
The consequences of poverty eradication on limiting warming to 2 °C are not fully clear. Here, Hubacek et al. find that while ending extreme poverty does not jeopardize the climate target, moving everybody to a modest expenditure level increases required mitigation rate by 27%
- Klaus Hubacek
- , Giovanni Baiocchi
- & Anand Patwardhan
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| Open AccessHigh reactivity of deep biota under anthropogenic CO2 injection into basalt
The impacts of carbon capture and storage (CCS) on subsurface microorganisms are poorly understood. Here, the authors show that deep ecosystems respond quickly to CO2 injections and that the environmental consequences of their metabolic activities need to be properly assessed for sustainable CCS in basalt.
- Rosalia Trias
- , Bénédicte Ménez
- & Emmanuelle Gérard
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| Open AccessVolcanic suppression of Nile summer flooding triggers revolt and constrains interstate conflict in ancient Egypt
The degree to which human societies have responded to past climatic changes remains unclear. Here, using a novel combination of approaches, the authors show how volcanically-induced suppression of Nile summer flooding led to societal unrest in Ptolemaic Egypt (305–30 BCE).
- Joseph G. Manning
- , Francis Ludlow
- & Jennifer R. Marlon
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| Open AccessUpstream watershed condition predicts rural children’s health across 35 developing countries
Globally diarrheal disease through contaminated water sources is a major cause of child mortality. Here, the authors compile a database of 293,362 children in 35 countries and find that upstream tree cover is linked to a lower probability of diarrheal disease and that increasing tree cover may lower mortality.
- Diego Herrera
- , Alicia Ellis
- & Taylor H. Ricketts
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Article
| Open AccessIn situ wrapping of the cathode material in lithium-sulfur batteries
To suppress the polysulfide shuttling effect in Li-S batteries, here the authors report a carbon/sulfur composite cathode with a wrapping layer that overcomes the trade-off between limiting polysulfide diffusion and allowing electrolyte infiltration, and affords extraordinary cycling stability.
- Chenji Hu
- , Hongwei Chen
- & Liwei Chen
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| Open AccessAgricultural pesticide use and adverse birth outcomes in the San Joaquin Valley of California
The health consequences of exposure to pesticides are uncertain and subject to much debate. Here, the effect of exposure during pregnancy is investigated in an agriculturally dominated residential area, showing that an increase in adverse birth outcomes is observed with very high levels of pesticide exposure.
- Ashley E. Larsen
- , Steven D. Gaines
- & Olivier Deschênes
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| Open AccessMajor agricultural changes required to mitigate phosphorus losses under climate change
The impact of climate change on phosphorus (P) loss from land to water is unclear. Here, the authors use P flux data, climate simulations and P transfer models to show that only large scale agricultural change will limit the effect of climate change on average winter P loads in three catchments across the UK.
- M. C. Ockenden
- , M. J. Hollaway
- & P. M. Haygarth
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| Open AccessA 3 °C global RCP8.5 emission trajectory cancels benefits of European emission reductions on air quality
Current national pledges to reduce greenhouse gas emissions track to a temperature rise of about 3 °C. Here the authors use future projections to show that 3 °C warming under a business as usual scenario would result in large increases in ozone concentrations, off-setting any benefits from mitigation policies.
- A. Fortems-Cheiney
- , G. Foret
- & M. Beekmann
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| Open AccessReconciling irrigated food production with environmental flows for Sustainable Development Goals implementation
Sustainable development goals for water use and food production are in conflict, but this could be reduced by proper water management. Here, violations of global environmental flow requirements for rivers are quantified and related to reconciliation potentials in irrigated and rainfed agriculture.
- Jonas Jägermeyr
- , Amandine Pastor
- & Dieter Gerten
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Article
| Open AccessReduced ultrafine particle levels in São Paulo’s atmosphere during shifts from gasoline to ethanol use
The biofuel ethanol has been introduced into urban transportation in many countries. Here, by measuring aerosols in São Paulo, the authors find that high ethanol prices coincided with an increase in harmful nanoparticles by a third, as drivers switched from ethanol to cheaper gasoline, showing a benefit of ethanol.
- Alberto Salvo
- , Joel Brito
- & Franz M. Geiger
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Article
| Open AccessUnderstanding extreme sea levels for broad-scale coastal impact and adaptation analysis
Uncertainties in contemporary extreme sea levels (ESL) from mean sea level rise (SLR) projections have been overlooked in broad-scale risk and adaptation studies. Here, the authors quantify the uncertainties in present-day global ESL estimates and find that they exceed those from global SLR projections.
- T. Wahl
- , I. D. Haigh
- & A. B. A. Slangen
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| Open AccessThe social inefficiency of regulating indirect land use change due to biofuels
A Low Carbon Fuel Standard seeks to regulate indirect land use change by including its related carbon emissions in the carbon intensity of biofuels. Khannaet al. show the economic cost of abatement achieved by including this factor is much larger than the social cost of carbon.
- Madhu Khanna
- , Weiwei Wang
- & Evan H. DeLucia
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| Open AccessUnderstanding the origin of Paris Agreement emission uncertainties
The pledges put forward by each country to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement are ambiguous. Rogeljet al. quantify the uncertainty arising from the interpretation of these pledges and find that by 2030 global emissions can vary by −10% to +20% around their median estimate of 52 GtCO2e yr−1.
- Joeri Rogelj
- , Oliver Fricko
- & Keywan Riahi
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| Open AccessPathways for balancing CO2 emissions and sinks
COP21 led to a global commitment to decarbonization before 2100 to combat climate change, but leaves the timing and scale of mitigation efforts to individual countries. Here, the authors show that global carbon emissions need to peak within a decade to maintain realistic pathways for achieving the Paris Agreement.
- Brian Walsh
- , Philippe Ciais
- & Michael Obersteiner
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| Open AccessA coupled human-Earth model perspective on long-term trends in the global marine fishery
Global marine fish harvest increased over the 20th century, reaching a peak in the 1990s. Here, Galbraith and colleagues analyse a model combining both ecological and economic drivers to weigh the factors most likely to contribute to long-term changes in fish harvests.
- E. D. Galbraith
- , D. A. Carozza
- & D. Bianchi
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| Open AccessDisplacement efficiency of alternative energy and trans-provincial imported electricity in China
Alternative energy is widely believed to proportionally displace fossil fuels. Here, the authors analyse displacement values for China between 1995 and 2014 and show that alternative energy, primarily hydropower, displaced ∼1/4 of a unit of fossil electricity, twice the global average.
- Yuanan Hu
- & Hefa Cheng
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| Open AccessEstimating economic losses to tourism in Africa from the illegal killing of elephants
An ongoing elephant poaching crisis is threatening not only elephant populations but also the local economies that rely on nature-based tourism. Here, Naidoo and colleagues use an economic model to estimate the financial contribution of elephants to tourism and the possible consequences of their loss.
- Robin Naidoo
- , Brendan Fisher
- & Andrew Balmford
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| Open AccessOptimal bioenergy power generation for climate change mitigation with or without carbon sequestration
Prior mitigation assessments of atmospheric CO2 removal rely on bioenergy carbon capture and storage (BECCS), excluding bioenergy-biochar systems (BEBCS). Here, Woolf et al. find that BEBCS offers an alternative cost-effective solution, and may allow earlier CO2removal at a lower carbon price.
- Dominic Woolf
- , Johannes Lehmann
- & David R. Lee
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| Open AccessWildlife population trends in protected areas predicted by national socio-economic metrics and body size
Protected areas are intended to safeguard wildlife, but their effectiveness has at times been questioned. Barnes, Craigie, and colleagues show that protected areas do offer refuge—maintaining their bird and mammal abundances—but with greater success for larger-bodied species and in more developed nations.
- Megan D. Barnes
- , Ian D. Craigie
- & Stephen Woodley
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| Open AccessFull circumpolar migration ensures evolutionary unity in the Emperor penguin
Delimiting populations is crucial for conserving threatened species. Using genome-wide data from the whole of Antarctica, Cristofari et al.show that Emperor penguins are organised into a single global population that have shared demography since the late Quarternary.
- Robin Cristofari
- , Giorgio Bertorelle
- & Emiliano Trucchi
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Negative emissions physically needed to keep global warming below 2 °C
It is widely acknowledged that some form of carbon capture will be necessary to limit global warming to less than 2 °C, but to what extent remains unclear. Here, using climate-carbon models, the authors quantify the amount of negative emissions and carbon storage capacity required to meet this target.
- T. Gasser
- , C. Guivarch
- & P. Ciais
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Review Article |
Global potential of biospheric carbon management for climate mitigation
Carbon mitigation is considered an important and viable pathway towards climate stabilization, but competition for land is high. Here, Canadell and Schulze consider the sustainable implementation of a number of land-based biological carbon mitigation activities and assess the carbon savings achievable by 2050.
- Josep G. Canadell
- & E. Detlef Schulze
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Reactive nitrogen requirements to feed the world in 2050 and potential to mitigate nitrogen pollution
As global population and food demand rises, it is increasingly unclear how reactive nitrogen pollution will be mitigated. Bodirsky et al.run a series of model simulations and show that even under ambitious mitigation, reactive nitrogen pollution is likely to exceed critical environmental thresholds in the year 2050.
- Benjamin Leon Bodirsky
- , Alexander Popp
- & Miodrag Stevanovic
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| Open AccessThe effectiveness of coral reefs for coastal hazard risk reduction and adaptation
The risks of flooding to coastal communities are increasing due to coastal development and climate change. Here, the authors use meta-analyses to quantitatively show that coral reefs can significantly reduce risks from natural hazards, and that reef defences can be enhanced cost effectively.
- Filippo Ferrario
- , Michael W. Beck
- & Laura Airoldi
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| Open AccessCascading ecological effects of eliminating fishery discards
Discards from fishing vessels are food for scavenging species, so ending the practice may have ecological consequences. Here, Heath et al. show that improving selectivity so that unwanted fish are not caught, achieves conservation benefits, while simply requiring that vessels land their entire catch, does not.
- Michael R. Heath
- , Robin M. Cook
- & Douglas C. Speirs
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Human impacts drive a global topographic signature in tree cover
Humans have greatly altered the distribution of forests across the world. Here, the authors use estimates of tree cover from remote-sensing data to reveal that human impact has produced a strong tendency for forest remnants to persist primarily on sloped terrain.
- Brody Sandel
- & Jens-Christian Svenning
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| Open AccessSustainable biochar to mitigate global climate change
The storage in soils of biochar, the product of biomass pyrolysis, has been proposed as an attractive option to mitigate climate change. Amonette and co-workers model the potential impact of biochar and find that it could eliminate more carbon from the atmosphere than using the same biomass for biofuel.
- Dominic Woolf
- , James E. Amonette
- & Stephen Joseph