Featured
-
-
Article
| Open AccessDeep-sea hiatus record reveals orbital pacing by 2.4 Myr eccentricity grand cycles
Cenozoic deep-sea hiatuses reveal a ~2.4 Myr eccentricity signal corresponding to orbitally-forced intensification of deep-water circulation. The signal is disrupted by a chaotic orbital transition in the Solar System at about 56 Ma.
- Adriana Dutkiewicz
- , Slah Boulila
- & R. Dietmar Müller
-
Article
| Open AccessSystematic review of the uncertainty of coral reef futures under climate change
Global warming targets are considered inadequate to protect coral reefs, but this prognosis is based on models with similar approaches. This systematic review of studies that project coral responses to climate change found that divergent modelling methodologies had discrepancies in coral reef outcomes, and that those used for climate change syntheses may project more severe consequences than other methods.
- Shannon G. Klein
- , Cassandra Roch
- & Carlos M. Duarte
-
Article
| Open AccessAtlantic origin of the increasing Asian westerly jet interannual variability
The summer jet stream above East Asia has become more variable in recent decades, leading to weather and climate extremes across Eurasia. The authors show that a Scandinavian Pattern in preceding February is driving the strong variability.
- Lifei Lin
- , Chundi Hu
- & Dake Chen
-
Article
| Open AccessThe role of interdecadal climate oscillations in driving Arctic atmospheric river trends
Arctic atmospheric rivers (ARs) have been increasing faster over the Atlantic sector than the Pacific sector in recent decades. The observed phase shift of interdecadal climate oscillations is key to explaining this disparity in Arctic AR trends.
- Weiming Ma
- , Hailong Wang
- & Wieslaw Maslowski
-
Matters Arising
| Open AccessReply to: Satellite artifacts modulate FireCCILT11 global burned area
- Adrián Cardil
- , Marcos Rodrigues
- & Sergio de-Miguel
-
Matters Arising
| Open AccessSatellite artifacts modulate FireCCILT11 global burned area
- Louis Giglio
- & David P. Roy
-
Article
| Open AccessCross-basin and cross-taxa patterns of marine community tropicalization and deborealization in warming European seas
Climate change is shifting species distribution globally. Here, the authors track four decades of changes in the thermal affinity of 1,817 marine species across European seas, showing that most communities have responded to ongoing ocean warming via increases of warm-water species or decreases of cold-water species.
- Guillem Chust
- , Ernesto Villarino
- & Martin Lindegren
-
Comment
| Open AccessPlastic pollution amplified by a warming climate
Climate change and plastic pollution are interconnected global challenges. Rising temperatures and moisture alter plastic characteristics, contributing to waste, microplastic generation, and release of hazardous substances. Urgent attention is essential to comprehend and address these climate-driven effects and their consequences.
- Xin-Feng Wei
- , Wei Yang
- & Mikael S. Hedenqvist
-
Article
| Open AccessCircum-Antarctic bottom water formation mediated by tides and topographic waves
This study identifies the key roles of tides and topographic waves in forming Antarctic bottom water in different regions. The Antarctic coastline is divided into four overflow dynamical regimes, providing guidance for future observations.
- Xianxian Han
- , Andrew L. Stewart
- & Arnold L. Gordon
-
Article
| Open AccessHigh-latitude platform carbonate deposition constitutes a climate conundrum at the terminal Mesoproterozoic
Deposition of 1.2-billion-year-old Indian limestone in shallow seas near the poles imply balmy conditions of more than 15 °C and significantly higher atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, which expands the spectrum of Earth’s climatic extremes.
- Michiel O. de Kock
- , Ingrit Malatji
- & L. P. Maré
-
Article
| Open AccessReconciling ice core CO2 and land-use change following New World-Old World contact
Ice core records of gradually declining atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) for the period 1450–1700 CE support modelled scenarios of large-scale reorganisation of land use in the Americas following New World-Old World contact.
- Amy C. F. King
- , Thomas K. Bauska
- & Matthew B. Osman
-
Article
| Open AccessSustained growth of sulfur hexafluoride emissions in China inferred from atmospheric observations
Atmospheric measurements show that China’s emissions of the potent greenhouse gas, sulfur hexafluoride, grew rapidly between 2011 and 2021. This rise could offset some of China’s progress towards its greenhouse gas emission reduction goal.
- Minde An
- , Ronald G. Prinn
- & Matthew Rigby
-
Article
| Open AccessThe inclusion of Amazon mangroves in Brazil’s REDD+ program
A new study shows that deforestation of Amazon mangroves releases up to four times more carbon dioxide when compared to emissions arising from terrestrial biomes. This study set a foundation for the use of mangroves in Brazil’s international policy agreements.
- Angelo F. Bernardino
- , Ana Carolina A. Mazzuco
- & J. Boone Kauffman
-
Article
| Open AccessEmergent constraints on carbon budgets as a function of global warming
The authors combine climate simulations with observations to estimate carbon budgets which are better constrained and find they are more than 10% larger than the mean value from CMIP6 models.
- Peter M. Cox
- , Mark S. Williamson
- & Rebecca M. Varney
-
Article
| Open AccessGeographic range of plants drives long-term climate change
The geographic spread of plants exerted an important control over ancient climate change by modifying continental weathering and carbon burial rates. This effect is investigated using a new coupled vegetation-climate-biogeochemical model.
- Khushboo Gurung
- , Katie J. Field
- & Benjamin J. W. Mills
-
Matters Arising
| Open AccessField experiments show no consistent reductions in soil microbial carbon in response to warming
- Chao Yue
- , Jinshi Jian
- & Ben Bond-Lamberty
-
Article
| Open AccessCCl4 emissions in eastern China during 2021–2022 and exploration of potential new sources
The Montreal Protocol globally phased out ozone-layer depleting CCl4 by 2010. However, atmospheric measurements show eastern China emitted ~7.6 gigagrams/year in 2021–2022. Further, industrial sources of ongoing CCL4 emissions are identified.
- Bowei Li
- , Jiahuan Huang
- & Xuekun Fang
-
Article
| Open AccessModern anthropogenic drought in Central Brazil unprecedented during last 700 years
Speleothems from the Savanna region in Brazil documents the occurrence of an unprecedented long-term drought driven by anthropogenic forcing. Staring in the 1970´s the current drought is the most severe that has struck the region in the past 700 years.
- Nicolas Misailidis Stríkis
- , Plácido Fabrício Silva Melo Buarque
- & Valdir Felipe Novello
-
Article
| Open AccessAnthropogenic carbon pathways towards the North Atlantic interior revealed by Argo-O2, neural networks and back-calculations
Large emissions of anthropogenic carbon dioxide have been partly absorbed by the oceans. Here, the authors use Argo-O2 floats combined with existing methods to study the distribution of this anthropogenic CO2 in the North Atlantic Ocean.
- Rémy Asselot
- , Lidia I. Carracedo
- & Fiz F. Pérez
-
Article
| Open AccessAnthropogenic aerosols mask increases in US rainfall by greenhouse gases
The authors use rain gauge measurements to derive data-driven estimates of how climate change impacts extreme rain in the US. They find that the expected rainfall increases driven by burning fossil fuels are offset with drying caused by anthropogenic aerosols.
- Mark D. Risser
- , William D. Collins
- & Paul A. Ullrich
-
Article
| Open AccessReactive aldehyde chemistry explains the missing source of hydroxyl radicals
Hydroxyl radicals (OH) determine the tropospheric self-cleansing capacity. This study reveals that reactive aldehyde chemistry plays an important role in OH formation and helps narrow the gap between ambient OH observations and model simulations.
- Xinping Yang
- , Haichao Wang
- & Yuanhang Zhang
-
Article
| Open AccessHistorical changes in wind-driven ocean circulation drive pattern of Pacific warming
The tropical Pacific has exhibited a complex warming pattern since the 1950s. The authors here identify the critical role of the wind-driven ocean circulation in this warming pattern, and especially for the enhanced warming of the eastern Pacific.
- Shuo Fu
- , Shineng Hu
- & Yiqun Tian
-
Article
| Open AccessDeglaciation-enhanced mantle CO2 fluxes at Yellowstone imply positive climate feedback
The retreat of the #Yellowstone ice cap reduced mantle pressures. Using models, we predict this enhanced mantle melting 19-fold, segregating a globally-significant mass of CO2 and potentially contributing to feedbacks between deglaciation and climate.
- Fiona Clerc
- , Mark D. Behn
- & Brent M. Minchew
-
Article
| Open AccessAtlantic Water warming increases melt below Northeast Greenland’s last floating ice tongue
The 79 North Glacier features Greenland’s largest floating ice tongue, which has been thinning from below in the last few decades. Here, the drivers of the upward trend and interannual variability of basal melt are disentangled.
- Claudia Wekerle
- , Rebecca McPherson
- & Torsten Kanzow
-
Article
| Open AccessTransition from positive to negative indirect CO2 effects on the vegetation carbon uptake
It is unclear how indirect CO2 effect – via associated climate change – on vegetation carbon uptake changes globally. Here, the authors show that such initial positive effect has declined recently, shifting to negative in the early 21st century.
- Zefeng Chen
- , Weiguang Wang
- & Alessandro Cescatti
-
Article
| Open AccessSpatial patterns of Holocene temperature changes over mid-latitude Eurasia
New alkenone results and existing temperature records together show contrasting Holocene temperature trends and thus display spatial patterns over mid-latitude Eurasia, with implications for the Holocene temperature conundrum.
- Jiawei Jiang
- , Bowen Meng
- & Zhonghui Liu
-
Article
| Open AccessReal-world time-travel experiment shows ecosystem collapse due to anthropogenic climate change
Over 13 years, coastal Louisiana’s wetlands have been endangered by a sea-level rise rate comparable to what is expected later this century. While the rate may not persist over the next few decades, this natural experiment indicates a 75% drowning of these wetlands by 2070 under current carbon emissions.
- Guandong Li
- , Torbjörn E. Törnqvist
- & Sönke Dangendorf
-
Article
| Open AccessSediment discharge from Greenland’s marine-terminating glaciers is linked with surface melt
As Greenland’s huge calving glaciers melt, they pump sediment deep into biologically rich fjords. In this study, the quantity and path of this sediment is tracked and an empirical relationship is found between sediment and the amount of surface melt on the glacier.
- Camilla S. Andresen
- , Nanna B. Karlsson
- & Ida E. Gundel
-
Article
| Open AccessPolar bear energetic and behavioral strategies on land with implications for surviving the ice-free period
Declining Arctic sea ice is increasing polar bear land use. Here, the authors follow 20 different polar bears on land over 3 years and measure daily energy expenditure finding that despite behavioural and diet plasticity the bears are at risk of starvation.
- Anthony M. Pagano
- , Karyn D. Rode
- & Charles T. Robbins
-
Article
| Open AccessMapping the global distribution of C4 vegetation using observations and optimality theory
Due to fundamental anatomical and biochemical differences, C3 and C4 plant species tend to differ in their biogeography and response to climate change. Here, the authors use global observations and optimality theory to map patterns and temporal trends in C4 species distribution and the contribution of C4 plants to global photosynthesis.
- Xiangzhong Luo
- , Haoran Zhou
- & Christopher J. Still
-
Article
| Open AccessDansgaard-Oeschger cycles of the penultimate and last glacial period recorded in stalagmites from Türkiye
Abrupt millennial-scale climate variability, known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, characterized the last glacial. Stalagmite data from northern Türkiye show D-O events for the penultimate glacial period, though they were less frequent.
- F. Held
- , H. Cheng
- & D. Fleitmann
-
Article
| Open AccessHybrid AI-enhanced lightning flash prediction in the medium-range forecast horizon
In this work, authors propose a synergistic approach combining state-of-the-art deterministic forecasting model with artificial intelligence for predicting lightning occurrences. The strategy shows efficient predictive capabilities at medium-range forecast horizons.
- Mattia Cavaiola
- , Federico Cassola
- & Andrea Mazzino
-
Article
| Open AccessShear margins in upper half of Northeast Greenland Ice Stream were established two millennia ago
The flow of ice streams leaves traces in the stratigraphy of the ice sheets. Made visible by radar, they reveal the history of the upper North East Greenland Ice Stream. The ice stream is found to have existed in its current form for only about the last 2000 years.
- Daniela Jansen
- , Steven Franke
- & Paul D. Bons
-
Article
| Open AccessContribution of climate change to the spatial expansion of West Nile virus in Europe
West Nile Virus is emerging as an important pathogen in Europe, likely driven by recent climate and land-use changes. Here, the authors estimate the extent of the climate change-driven impact by modelling the change in West Nile Virus ecological suitability across the continent in the absence of climate change.
- Diana Erazo
- , Luke Grant
- & Simon Dellicour
-
Article
| Open AccessProcess-evaluation of forest aerosol-cloud-climate feedback shows clear evidence from observations and large uncertainty in models
This study shows that trees are likely to change clouds in the future and reveals that climate models struggle to accurately represent the relevant processes of aerosol-cloud-climate interactions over forests.
- Sara M. Blichner
- , Taina Yli-Juuti
- & Ilona Riipinen
-
Article
| Open AccessEast Antarctic warming forced by ice loss during the Last Interglacial
Climate simulations of the Last Interglacial show that Antarctic ice loss induces warming of East Antarctica. Meltwater equivalent to the ice loss induces warming of the subsurface. Both effects can further enhance Antarctic ice sheet deterioration
- David K. Hutchinson
- , Laurie Menviel
- & Andrew McC. Hogg
-
Article
| Open AccessLoess deposits in the low latitudes of East Asia reveal the ~20-kyr precipitation cycle
Earth’s orbit has tuned the variations of the East Asian summer monsoon. Here, a low latitude loess palaeoclimate record provides evidence that variation in monsoon rainfall is dominated by the precession cycle.
- Xusheng Li
- , Yuwen Zhou
- & Huayu Lu
-
Comment
| Open AccessOpening the door to multi-year marine habitat forecasts
Combining ocean predictions with physiological understanding yields the ability to forecast habitat multiple years into the future for a wide variety of marine organisms. However, several challenges remain before we see the regular production and use of marine habitat forecasts.
- Mark R. Payne
-
Article
| Open AccessSkillful multiyear prediction of marine habitat shifts jointly constrained by ocean temperature and dissolved oxygen
Here, the authors show that multiyear prediction of marine habitat shifts can be skillfully accomplished by combining trait based aerobic habitat constraints with a suite of initialized retrospective Earth System Model temperature forecasts.
- Zhuomin Chen
- , Samantha Siedlecki
- & Curtis A. Deutsch
-
Article
| Open AccessIncreased nitrous oxide emissions from global lakes and reservoirs since the pre-industrial era
Modeling shows that N2O emissions from global lakes and reservoirs have doubled since the pre-industrial era, this was mainly caused by widespread agricultural nitrogen application.
- Ya Li
- , Hanqin Tian
- & Shufen Pan
-
Article
| Open AccessLast millennium hurricane activity linked to endogenous climate variability
The authors present two independent reconstructions and a model simulations of Atlantic hurricane activity over the last millennium and show that it is mainly driven by internal climate variability instead of external forcings.
- Wenchang Yang
- , Elizabeth Wallace
- & Tyler S. Winkler
-
Article
| Open AccessRising rainfall intensity induces spatially divergent hydrological changes within a large river basin
Increasing rainfall intensity produces opposite hydrological effects across a large river basin in South China (drying in the uplands vs. wetting in the lowlands) due to spatially contrasting interactions between rainfall intensification and topography.
- Yiping Wu
- , Xiaowei Yin
- & Decheng Zhou
-
Article
| Open AccessGlobal distribution of surface soil organic carbon in urban greenspaces
Using observed data, Guo et al. present a comprehensive assessment of soil organic carbon density and stock in global urban greenspaces. This study elucidates the global distribution of soil organic carbon in urban greenspaces and provides a baseline for future projection.
- Hongbo Guo
- , Enzai Du
- & Robert B. Jackson
-
Perspective
| Open AccessThe principles of natural climate solutions
Natural climate solutions can mitigate climate change but misunderstandings about what constitutes a natural climate solution generate unnecessary confusion and controversy. This Perspective distills five foundational principles of natural climate solutions and fifteen operational principles for practical implementation.
- Peter Woods Ellis
- , Aaron Marr Page
- & Susan C. Cook-Patton
-
Article
| Open AccessGreenhouse gas emissions from US irrigation pumping and implications for climate-smart irrigation policy
This study demonstrates the energy use of US pump irrigation produced 12.6 million tonnes CO2e in 2018, with spatial variability modulated by water source and fuel choice. These county-level estimates can inform strategic irrigation expansion and emissions reduction efforts.
- Avery W. Driscoll
- , Richard T. Conant
- & Nathaniel D. Mueller
-
Article
| Open AccessPersistent warm-eddy transport to Antarctic ice shelves driven by enhanced summer westerlies
The offshore heat supplied to the Antarctic continental shelves by warm eddies has a potential impact on the melting of ice shelves. Here, how warm eddies form and intrude onto the continental shelf and play an important role in ice shelf melting is shown.
- Libao Gao
- , Xiaojun Yuan
- & Guy D. Williams
-
Article
| Open AccessDrought may exacerbate dryland soil inorganic carbon loss under warming climate conditions
Drought is shown to enhance the temperature sensitivity of soil inorganic carbon dissolution but to weaken that of soil organic carbon decomposition, indicating that drought may exacerbate dryland soil carbon loss from inorganic carbon under warming.
- Jinquan Li
- , Junmin Pei
- & Ming Nie
-
Article
| Open AccessHigh Salinity Shelf Water production rates in Terra Nova Bay, Ross Sea from high-resolution salinity observations
Antarctic Bottom Water ventilates the deep ocean, but studies of its source regions are limited due to scarce observations. Miller et al. leverage mooring data to quantify the production rate of a key constituent water mass produced in the Ross Sea.
- Una Kim Miller
- , Christopher J. Zappa
- & Won Sang Lee
-
Article
| Open AccessAcceleration of the ocean warming from 1961 to 2022 unveiled by large-ensemble reanalyses
The authors used a state-of-the-science ensemble ocean reconstruction to analyze ocean heat content evolution over the last 62 years, focusing on the analysis of warming acceleration and the main sources of its uncertainty.
- Andrea Storto
- & Chunxue Yang