Featured
-
-
Article
| Open AccessHybrid AI-enhanced lightning flash prediction in the medium-range forecast horizon
In this work, authors propose a synergistic approach combining state-of-the-art deterministic forecasting model with artificial intelligence for predicting lightning occurrences. The strategy shows efficient predictive capabilities at medium-range forecast horizons.
- Mattia Cavaiola
- , Federico Cassola
- & Andrea Mazzino
-
Article
| Open AccessShear margins in upper half of Northeast Greenland Ice Stream were established two millennia ago
The flow of ice streams leaves traces in the stratigraphy of the ice sheets. Made visible by radar, they reveal the history of the upper North East Greenland Ice Stream. The ice stream is found to have existed in its current form for only about the last 2000 years.
- Daniela Jansen
- , Steven Franke
- & Paul D. Bons
-
Article
| Open AccessContribution of climate change to the spatial expansion of West Nile virus in Europe
West Nile Virus is emerging as an important pathogen in Europe, likely driven by recent climate and land-use changes. Here, the authors estimate the extent of the climate change-driven impact by modelling the change in West Nile Virus ecological suitability across the continent in the absence of climate change.
- Diana Erazo
- , Luke Grant
- & Simon Dellicour
-
Article
| Open AccessProcess-evaluation of forest aerosol-cloud-climate feedback shows clear evidence from observations and large uncertainty in models
This study shows that trees are likely to change clouds in the future and reveals that climate models struggle to accurately represent the relevant processes of aerosol-cloud-climate interactions over forests.
- Sara M. Blichner
- , Taina Yli-Juuti
- & Ilona Riipinen
-
Article
| Open AccessEast Antarctic warming forced by ice loss during the Last Interglacial
Climate simulations of the Last Interglacial show that Antarctic ice loss induces warming of East Antarctica. Meltwater equivalent to the ice loss induces warming of the subsurface. Both effects can further enhance Antarctic ice sheet deterioration
- David K. Hutchinson
- , Laurie Menviel
- & Andrew McC. Hogg
-
Article
| Open AccessLoess deposits in the low latitudes of East Asia reveal the ~20-kyr precipitation cycle
Earth’s orbit has tuned the variations of the East Asian summer monsoon. Here, a low latitude loess palaeoclimate record provides evidence that variation in monsoon rainfall is dominated by the precession cycle.
- Xusheng Li
- , Yuwen Zhou
- & Huayu Lu
-
Comment
| Open AccessOpening the door to multi-year marine habitat forecasts
Combining ocean predictions with physiological understanding yields the ability to forecast habitat multiple years into the future for a wide variety of marine organisms. However, several challenges remain before we see the regular production and use of marine habitat forecasts.
- Mark R. Payne
-
Article
| Open AccessSkillful multiyear prediction of marine habitat shifts jointly constrained by ocean temperature and dissolved oxygen
Here, the authors show that multiyear prediction of marine habitat shifts can be skillfully accomplished by combining trait based aerobic habitat constraints with a suite of initialized retrospective Earth System Model temperature forecasts.
- Zhuomin Chen
- , Samantha Siedlecki
- & Curtis A. Deutsch
-
Article
| Open AccessIncreased nitrous oxide emissions from global lakes and reservoirs since the pre-industrial era
Modeling shows that N2O emissions from global lakes and reservoirs have doubled since the pre-industrial era, this was mainly caused by widespread agricultural nitrogen application.
- Ya Li
- , Hanqin Tian
- & Shufen Pan
-
Article
| Open AccessLast millennium hurricane activity linked to endogenous climate variability
The authors present two independent reconstructions and a model simulations of Atlantic hurricane activity over the last millennium and show that it is mainly driven by internal climate variability instead of external forcings.
- Wenchang Yang
- , Elizabeth Wallace
- & Tyler S. Winkler
-
Article
| Open AccessRising rainfall intensity induces spatially divergent hydrological changes within a large river basin
Increasing rainfall intensity produces opposite hydrological effects across a large river basin in South China (drying in the uplands vs. wetting in the lowlands) due to spatially contrasting interactions between rainfall intensification and topography.
- Yiping Wu
- , Xiaowei Yin
- & Decheng Zhou
-
Article
| Open AccessGlobal distribution of surface soil organic carbon in urban greenspaces
Using observed data, Guo et al. present a comprehensive assessment of soil organic carbon density and stock in global urban greenspaces. This study elucidates the global distribution of soil organic carbon in urban greenspaces and provides a baseline for future projection.
- Hongbo Guo
- , Enzai Du
- & Robert B. Jackson
-
Perspective
| Open AccessThe principles of natural climate solutions
Natural climate solutions can mitigate climate change but misunderstandings about what constitutes a natural climate solution generate unnecessary confusion and controversy. This Perspective distills five foundational principles of natural climate solutions and fifteen operational principles for practical implementation.
- Peter Woods Ellis
- , Aaron Marr Page
- & Susan C. Cook-Patton
-
Article
| Open AccessGreenhouse gas emissions from US irrigation pumping and implications for climate-smart irrigation policy
This study demonstrates the energy use of US pump irrigation produced 12.6 million tonnes CO2e in 2018, with spatial variability modulated by water source and fuel choice. These county-level estimates can inform strategic irrigation expansion and emissions reduction efforts.
- Avery W. Driscoll
- , Richard T. Conant
- & Nathaniel D. Mueller
-
Article
| Open AccessPersistent warm-eddy transport to Antarctic ice shelves driven by enhanced summer westerlies
The offshore heat supplied to the Antarctic continental shelves by warm eddies has a potential impact on the melting of ice shelves. Here, how warm eddies form and intrude onto the continental shelf and play an important role in ice shelf melting is shown.
- Libao Gao
- , Xiaojun Yuan
- & Guy D. Williams
-
Article
| Open AccessDrought may exacerbate dryland soil inorganic carbon loss under warming climate conditions
Drought is shown to enhance the temperature sensitivity of soil inorganic carbon dissolution but to weaken that of soil organic carbon decomposition, indicating that drought may exacerbate dryland soil carbon loss from inorganic carbon under warming.
- Jinquan Li
- , Junmin Pei
- & Ming Nie
-
Article
| Open AccessHigh Salinity Shelf Water production rates in Terra Nova Bay, Ross Sea from high-resolution salinity observations
Antarctic Bottom Water ventilates the deep ocean, but studies of its source regions are limited due to scarce observations. Miller et al. leverage mooring data to quantify the production rate of a key constituent water mass produced in the Ross Sea.
- Una Kim Miller
- , Christopher J. Zappa
- & Won Sang Lee
-
Article
| Open AccessAcceleration of the ocean warming from 1961 to 2022 unveiled by large-ensemble reanalyses
The authors used a state-of-the-science ensemble ocean reconstruction to analyze ocean heat content evolution over the last 62 years, focusing on the analysis of warming acceleration and the main sources of its uncertainty.
- Andrea Storto
- & Chunxue Yang
-
Article
| Open AccessAccurate nowcasting of cloud cover at solar photovoltaic plants using geostationary satellite images
Accurate nowcasting of cloud cover or fraction and its movement remains a significant challenge for stable solar photovoltaic electricity generation. Here, the authors combine continuous radiance images with high spatio-temporal resolutions to develop a nowcasting algorithm for predicting cloud cover at a leading time of 0–4 h.
- Pan Xia
- , Lu Zhang
- & Shengjie Jia
-
Article
| Open AccessSignificantly wetter or drier future conditions for one to two thirds of the world’s population
The authors disentangle uncertainty in rainfall projections, revealing regions where multiple global climate models agree on future drying and wetting patterns with implications for one to two thirds of the world’s population.
- Ralph Trancoso
- , Jozef Syktus
- & Robin Chadwick
-
Article
| Open AccessA global analysis of how human infrastructure squeezes sandy coasts
In a first global analysis, researchers find that sandy shores are severely squeezed between human infrastructure and the rising sea, as on average, the first road or building is currently situated at just 390 meters distance from the shoreline.
- Eva M. Lansu
- , Valérie C. Reijers
- & Tjisse van der Heide
-
Article
| Open AccessKnowledge-guided machine learning can improve carbon cycle quantification in agroecosystems
Existing models to estimate agroecosystem C cycle have large uncertainties. Here, the authors propose a knowledge-guided machine learning framework that improves C cycle quantification in agroecosystems by integrating process-based and machine learning models, and multi-source high-resolution data.
- Licheng Liu
- , Wang Zhou
- & Zhenong Jin
-
Perspective
| Open AccessRemotely sensing potential climate change tipping points across scales
Climate change could drive critical parts of the Earth system past tipping points, causing large-scale, abrupt and/or irreversible changes that harm societies. Here, the authors suggest that satellite remote sensing can play a unique role in helping manage these profound risks, by providing improved early warning of tipping points across scales.
- Timothy M. Lenton
- , Jesse F. Abrams
- & Niklas Boers
-
Article
| Open AccessIncreasing tropical cyclone intensity in the western North Pacific partly driven by warming Tibetan Plateau
The weakened vertical wind shear is the primary driver behind increasing tropical cyclone intensity in the western North Pacific monsoon trough. This weakening is partly driven by warming in the Tibetan Plateau.
- Jing Xu
- , Ping Zhao
- & Lu Liu
-
Article
| Open AccessA stratospheric precursor of East Asian summer droughts and floods
Summer floods and droughts show a north-south dipole in East Asia centered near 30°N. Here, the authors show that the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation plays an important role in this dipole and its prediction.
- Ruhua Zhang
- , Wen Zhou
- & Jiali Luo
-
Article
| Open AccessSevere 21st-century ocean acidification in Antarctic Marine Protected Areas
Biodiversity in established or proposed Antarctic Marine Protected Areas is threatened by climate change. The authors show that projected ocean acidification is severe in Antarctic coastal waters due to strong vertical mixing of anthropogenic carbon.
- Cara Nissen
- , Nicole S. Lovenduski
- & Judith Hauck
-
Article
| Open AccessGlobal increase in tropical cyclone ocean surface waves
Ocean waves caused by tropical cyclones show a significant global increase of energy and area over the last 44 years, leading to critical emerging wave hazard.
- Jian Shi
- , Xiangbo Feng
- & Jinhai Zheng
-
Article
| Open AccessHigher emissions scenarios lead to more extreme flooding in the United States
This paper assesses future changes in flood magnitude across the conterminous United States based on multiple climate change scenarios. The results suggest that annual maximum peak discharge is projected to become more extreme under higher emission scenarios.
- Hanbeen Kim
- & Gabriele Villarini
-
Article
| Open AccessIncreased Asian aerosols drive a slowdown of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
Increased anthropogenic aerosol emissions from Asia generate circumglobal Rossby waves that contribute to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation slowdown by suppressing heat loss in the Labrador Sea.
- Fukai Liu
- , Xun Li
- & Lei Zhou
-
Article
| Open AccessRobust changes in global subtropical circulation under greenhouse warming
In this paper, the authors reveal a robust weakening of the subtropical atmospheric circulation across CMIP6 models driven by global-mean surface warming, which is partially offset by the direct CO2 effect.
- Shijie Zhou
- , Ping Huang
- & Peng Hu
-
Article
| Open AccessThe impact of extreme heat on lake warming in China
Heat extremes occur more frequently with global warming. Here the authors show that short-term heat extremes play a critical role in shaping long-term dynamics of lake surface temperature, contributing 36.5% of the warming trends in Chinese lakes.
- Weijia Wang
- , Kun Shi
- & R. Iestyn Woolway
-
Article
| Open AccessProjected soil carbon loss with warming in constrained Earth system models
Large uncertainties remain in Earth system models in predicting soil carbon-climate feedbacks. Here, the authors constrained projected soil carbon changes in ESMs using observation-derived data, and found that global soil will become a carbon source under future warming.
- Shuai Ren
- , Tao Wang
- & Shilong Piao
-
Matters Arising
| Open AccessReply to: Sea-level rise may not uniformly accelerate cliff erosion rates
- Jennifer R. Shadrick
- , Dylan H. Rood
- & Martin D. Hurst
-
Matters Arising
| Open AccessSea-level rise may not uniformly accelerate cliff erosion rates
- M. E. Dickson
- , H. Matsumoto
- & A. P. Young
-
Article
| Open AccessThe potential of emerging bio-based products to reduce environmental impacts
Zuiderveen and colleagues find that emerging bio-based products have on average 45% lower greenhouse gas life cycle emissions compared to their fossil counterparts, yet, there is a large variation between individual bio-based products with none of them reaching netzero emissions.
- Emma A. R. Zuiderveen
- , Koen J. J. Kuipers
- & Mark A. J. Huijbregts
-
Article
| Open AccessSolar cycle as a distinct line of evidence constraining Earth’s transient climate response
Here, the solar-cycle forcing and response are used to constrain climate sensitivity. Solar forcing does not involve aerosols and thus provides an independent and tighter constraint, reducing current uncertainty range by 2/3.
- King-Fai Li
- & Ka-Kit Tung
-
Article
| Open AccessShoreface erosion counters blue carbon accumulation in transgressive barrier-island systems
Landward barrier migration facilitates erosion of shoreface-exposed marsh and lagoon carbon stocks at rates outpacing backbarrier carbon accumulation, thus demonstrating the ephemeral nature of blue carbon storage along transgressive coasts.
- Mary Bryan Barksdale
- , Christopher J. Hein
- & Matthew L. Kirwan
-
Article
| Open AccessUncertainties in critical slowing down indicators of observation-based fingerprints of the Atlantic Overturning Circulation
Ben-Yami et al. present methods to quantify uncertainties and address biases in indicators for detecting stability changes in key Earth system components. Data gap filling introduces biases, but the stability decline in the North Atlantic remains significant.
- Maya Ben-Yami
- , Vanessa Skiba
- & Niklas Boers
-
Article
| Open AccessGlobal transcontinental power pools for low-carbon electricity
By building transcontinental power pools, Yang and colleagues find global electricity demand can be 100% met by renewables, at an affordable cost.
- Haozhe Yang
- , Ranjit Deshmukh
- & Sangwon Suh
-
Article
| Open AccessDecadal oscillation provides skillful multiyear predictions of Antarctic sea ice
A decadal-scale oscillatory pattern is identified that is a dominant mode of Antarctic sea ice variability. This mode is primarily driven by tropical-polar connections, offering insights into the multi-year predictability of Antarctic sea ice.
- Yusen Liu
- , Cheng Sun
- & Xichen Li
-
Article
| Open AccessParticle-associated denitrification is the primary source of N2O in oxic coastal waters
Incomplete denitrification associated with the micro-niche of marine particles, instead of nitrification as previously assumed, is a major source of N2O in the turbid coastal waters, even though the water is well-oxygenated.
- Xianhui S. Wan
- , Hua-Xia Sheng
- & Shuh-Ji Kao
-
Article
| Open AccessCalifornia’s zero-emission vehicle adoption brings air quality benefits yet equity gaps persist
Zero-emission vehicle adoption brings near-roadway air quality benefits to all communities in California, yet equity gaps persist in disadvantaged communities, calling for targeted policies.
- Qiao Yu
- , Brian Yueshuai He
- & Yifang Zhu
-
Article
| Open AccessThe emergence of modern zoogeographic regions in Asia examined through climate–dental trait association patterns
The timing of the emergence of the modern Asian terrestrial biota is unclear. Here, the authors apply redescription mining to herbivore dental trait data, finding that different aspects of modern zoogeographic patterns originated in the Pliocene and Middle and Late Miocene.
- Liping Liu
- , Esther Galbrun
- & Indrė Žliobaitė
-
Article
| Open AccessCarbonate chemistry and carbon sequestration driven by inorganic carbon outwelling from mangroves and saltmarshes
Global observations from mangroves and saltmarshes unravel hidden carbon pathways. Inorganic carbon outwelling is revealed to dominate carbon budgets, impact coastal pH, and enhance the climate mitigation potential of blue carbon ecosystems.
- Gloria M. S. Reithmaier
- , Alex Cabral
- & Isaac R. Santos
-
Article
| Open AccessHigher Antarctic ice sheet accumulation and surface melt rates revealed at 2 km resolution
High-resolution 2-km Antarctic maps reveal higher snowfall and surface melt than low-resolution products, reconciling satellite-observed ice sheet mass change. Projected higher surface melt near grounding lines threatens future ice shelf stability.
- Brice Noël
- , J. Melchior van Wessem
- & Michiel R. van den Broeke
-
Article
| Open AccessDemographics and risk of isolation due to sea level rise in the United States
Risk of isolation is expected to disproportionately affect racial minority populations in the U.S. as sea level rise increases. Communities with more renters, older adults, and lower-income populations will also be impacted.
- Kelsea Best
- , Qian He
- & Tom Logan
-
Article
| Open AccessWarming-induced vapor pressure deficit suppression of vegetation growth diminished in northern peatlands
Growing vapor pressure deficit inhibits vegetation growth. Here, Chen et al. combine satellite and eddy covariance data with field experiments showing that plant growth in northern peatlands is not constrained by water even in the presence of a warming-induced water pressure deficit.
- Ning Chen
- , Yifei Zhang
- & Xianwei Wang
-
Article
| Open AccessA physiological approach for assessing human survivability and liveability to heat in a changing climate
Research examining the ability to survive or safely live under extreme heat often oversimplifies human exposure and responses. Here, the authors apply a physiology-based approach for young and older adults to improve survivability estimates and introduce liveability in current and future climates.
- Jennifer Vanos
- , Gisel Guzman-Echavarria
- & Ollie Jay
-
Article
| Open AccessOcean warming drives rapid dynamic activation of marine-terminating glacier on the west Antarctic Peninsula
Warm ocean waters and favourable bathymetry caused Cadman Glacier on the Antarctic Peninsula to increase speed by 94% from 2018 to 2019. This led to increased ice discharge, glacier retreat of 8 kilometres, and glacier thinning by 20 meters per year.
- Benjamin J. Wallis
- , Anna E. Hogg
- & Carlos Moffat