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| Open AccessSolar geoengineering could redistribute malaria risk in developing countries
Solar geoengineering, an emergency climate intervention, could shift one billion people back into areas of malaria risk. Regional tradeoffs and potential adverse outcomes point to the need for health sector planning with Global South leadership.
- Colin J. Carlson
- , Rita Colwell
- & Christopher H. Trisos
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Article
| Open AccessJet stream position explains regional anomalies in European beech forest productivity and tree growth
Here the authors show that extremes in the summer jet stream position over Europe create a beech forest productivity dipole between northwestern and southeastern Europe and can result in regional anomalies in forest carbon uptake and growth.
- Isabel Dorado-Liñán
- , Blanca Ayarzagüena
- & Valerie Trouet
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Article
| Open AccessDeforestation-induced climate change reduces carbon storage in remaining tropical forests
Warming and drying from deforestation could amplify carbon storage losses in tropical remaining forests. Here the authors report this value to be extra 5.1% in the Amazon and 3.8% in Congo as compared to the direct biomass loss from deforestation.
- Yue Li
- , Paulo M. Brando
- & James T. Randerson
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| Open AccessGlobal field observations of tree die-off reveal hotter-drought fingerprint for Earth’s forests
Tree mortality is increasing due to droughts and other climate change-related stressors, but isolating climate signals for tree mortality is challenging. Here, the authors assemble a geo-referenced global database that quantifies how drought and hotter climate drive tree mortality events.
- William M. Hammond
- , A. Park Williams
- & Craig D. Allen
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Article
| Open AccessAssessing the climate change exposure of foreign direct investment
This study finds that foreign firms tend to shy away from countries with higher physical climate risks than do local firms. Chinese FDI is significantly more exposed to most physical climate risks than non-Chinese FDI across countries.
- Xia Li
- & Kevin P. Gallagher
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Article
| Open AccessProjected climate-driven changes in pollen emission season length and magnitude over the continental United States
Atmospheric conditions affect the release of anemophilous pollen. Zhang et al. use a pollen emission model together with future climate data to simulate changes in pollen emission. The study shows that climate change driven pollen increase and seasonal changes may increase seasonal allergies
- Yingxiao Zhang
- & Allison L. Steiner
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Article
| Open AccessDeep learning shows declining groundwater levels in Germany until 2100 due to climate change
Future groundwater levels in Germany are expected to decrease considerably under the influence of changing climate, exacerbating the trends and patterns already occurring. Simulations also show substantially reduced effects under stringent mitigation scenarios.
- Andreas Wunsch
- , Tanja Liesch
- & Stefan Broda
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Article
| Open AccessRobust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss
The degree to which Arctic sea ice decline influences the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation is widely debated. Here, the authors use a coordinated multi-model experiment to show that Arctic sea ice loss causes a weakening of the mid-latitude westerly winds, but the effect is overall small.
- D. M. Smith
- , R. Eade
- & A. Walsh
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Article
| Open AccessConsistent cooling benefits of silvopasture in the tropics
A new study shows that tropical silvopasture systems can provide significant cooling services for local communities, and identifies where these silvopasture systems can most effectively counteract global climate change to help communities adapt to warming.
- Lucas R. Vargas Zeppetello
- , Susan C. Cook-Patton
- & Yuta J. Masuda
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Article
| Open AccessTrend towards virtual and hybrid conferences may be an effective climate change mitigation strategy
Moving conferences from in-person to virtual and hybrid modes may have emissions reductions benefits. Here the authors find that the switch to virtual and hybrid conferencing reduces the carbon footprint by 94% when it comes to the switch to virtual conferencing, and 67% for hybrid conferences with carefully selected hubs.
- Yanqiu Tao
- , Debbie Steckel
- & Fengqi You
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Article
| Open AccessIncreased labor losses and decreased adaptation potential in a warmer world
Outdoor workers may need to adapt to warming by moving labor from midday to cooler hours. Here the authors find this adaptation strategy loses efficacy under additional climate change due to increased heat exposure in the coolest hours of the day.
- Luke A. Parsons
- , Drew Shindell
- & June T. Spector
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Article
| Open AccessFinancial stability in response to climate change in a northern temperate economy
Climate change will impact the global economy. Here, the authors propose a framework to evaluate its effect on economies across multiple regional and temporal scales, and project decreased financial stability in a northern temperate economy.
- Kayla Stan
- , Graham A. Watt
- & Arturo Sanchez-Azofeifa
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Perspective
| Open AccessQuantifying uncertainty in aggregated climate change risk assessments
The reasons for concern framework are an effective visualisation of climate change related risks. Here, the authors propose a new framework by which different levels of uncertainty can be included into this aggregated assessment in order to ensure a transparent communication of risks.
- Luke J. Harrington
- , Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
- & Friederike E. L. Otto
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Article
| Open AccessChanging impacts of Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone tsunamis in California under future sea-level rise
Rising sea level in the next century exposes the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach to higher hazards from Alaskan tsunamis. By 2100, waves generated by an M8 Alaskan earthquake cause similar impacts in California to waves from an Alaskan M9 today.
- Tina Dura
- , Andra J. Garner
- & Benjamin P. Horton
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Article
| Open AccessAssessing population exposure to coastal flooding due to sea level rise
The exposure of populations to sea-level rise is a leading indicator assessing the impact of future climate change on coastal regions. The authors identify three spatial zones of flooding such as mean higher water, the 100 year floodplain and the low-elevation coastal zone and show population exposure can differ between those zones.
- Mathew E. Hauer
- , Dean Hardy
- & Peter U. Clark
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| Open AccessThe role of urban trees in reducing land surface temperatures in European cities
Urban trees influence temperatures in cities. The authors here investigate in spatio-temporal variations in their cooling effect and find 8-12 K decreased temperatures for tree-rich urban areas in Central Europe during hot summers, and up to 4 K for Southern Europe, respectively.
- Jonas Schwaab
- , Ronny Meier
- & Edouard L. Davin
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Comment
| Open AccessImpacts of climate change to African indigenous communities and examples of adaptation responses
Climate change negatively impacts the livelihoods of indigenous communities across the world, including those located on the African continent. This Comment reports on how five African indigenous communities have been impacted by climate change and the adopted adaptation mechanisms.
- Walter Leal Filho
- , Newton R. Matandirotya
- & Richard Achia Mbih
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Article
| Open AccessHarmonizing corporate carbon footprints
Current carbon accounting and reporting practices remain unsystematic and incomparable, particularly for emissions along the value chain (scope 3). Here the authors present a framework to harmonize scope 3 emissions by accounting for reporting inconsistency, boundary incompleteness, and activity exclusion.
- Lena Klaaßen
- & Christian Stoll
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Article
| Open AccessCurrent and projected regional economic impacts of heatwaves in Europe
Heatwaves are becoming increasingly frequent and more intense, causing severe economic impacts through reduced labour productivity. Here, the authors show that economic damages in Europe exceed 1% of the GDP in vulnerable areas, which might increase by a factor of almost five in the medium term without climate action.
- David García-León
- , Ana Casanueva
- & Lars Nybo
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Article
| Open AccessEctomycorrhizal access to organic nitrogen mediates CO2 fertilization response in a dominant temperate tree
Root-mycorrhizal interactions could help explain the heterogeneity of plant responses to CO2 fertilisation and nutrient availability. Here the authors combine tree-ring and metagenomic data to reveal that tree growth responses to increasing CO2 along a soil nutrient gradient depend on the nitrogen foraging traits of ectomycorrhizal fungi.
- Peter T. Pellitier
- , Inés Ibáñez
- & Kirk Acharya
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Article
| Open AccessLarge uncertainties in trends of energy demand for heating and cooling under climate change
The energy demand for heating and cooling buildings is changing with global warming. Here the authors show that trends in cooling energy demands are increasing, although the magnitude is extremely uncertain, which highlights challenges for future energy demand quantification.
- Adrien Deroubaix
- , Inga Labuhn
- & Guillaume Siour
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Article
| Open AccessHeatstroke predictions by machine learning, weather information, and an all-population registry for 12-hour heatstroke alerts
In the context of climate change, heatstroke is expected to become an increasingly relevant public health concern. Here, the authors develop and validate prediction models for the number of all heatstroke cases in different cities in Japan.
- Soshiro Ogata
- , Misa Takegami
- & Kunihiro Nishimura
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Article
| Open AccessRapid ecosystem-scale consequences of acute deoxygenation on a Caribbean coral reef
How acute deoxygenation events affect tropical marine ecosystems remains poorly understood. This study integrates analyses of coral reef benthic communities with microbial community sequencing to show how a deoxygenation event rapidly altered a shallow tropical coral reef ecosystem in the Caribbean.
- Maggie D. Johnson
- , Jarrod J. Scott
- & Andrew H. Altieri
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Article
| Open AccessGlobal LiDAR land elevation data reveal greatest sea-level rise vulnerability in the tropics
Predicting the risk of flooding in coastal environments relies on accurate land elevation data, but this is not available in many parts of the world. Here the authors apply a global lowland digital terrain model derived from satellite LiDAR and determine that the regions most vulnerable to sea-level rise are in the tropics.
- A. Hooijer
- & R. Vernimmen
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Article
| Open AccessImpact of an accelerated melting of Greenland on malaria distribution over Africa
Release of freshwater into the oceans as a result of ice sheet melting could impact the distribution of climate-sensitive diseases. Here, the authors show that a rapid ice sheet melting in Greenland could cause an emergence of malaria in Southern Africa whilst transmission risks in West Africa may decline.
- Alizée Chemison
- , Gilles Ramstein
- & Cyril Caminade
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Article
| Open AccessLarge model structural uncertainty in global projections of urban heat waves
Understanding the uncertainties associated with urban heat wave (UHW) projection is critical for local actions to mitigate extreme heat risks in cities. Here, the authors show that choices of model structural design contribute a large proportion of the uncertainty in projecting UHWs under climate change.
- Zhonghua Zheng
- , Lei Zhao
- & Keith W. Oleson
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Article
| Open AccessCross-border climate vulnerabilities of the European Union to drought
European Union’s vulnerability to climate change stretches far beyond its borders. Here the authors find that more than 44% of the EU agricultural imports will become highly vulnerable to drought in future because of climate change.
- Ertug Ercin
- , Ted I. E. Veldkamp
- & Johannes Hunink
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Article
| Open AccessLimited application of reflective surfaces can mitigate urban heat pollution
Reflective surfaces have been recommended to mitigate urban heat pollution but can be expensive to apply at a large scale. This work shows that applying them to only the upstream half of a neighborhood can lead to disporportionately high cooling benefits relative to cost.
- Sushobhan Sen
- & Lev Khazanovich
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Article
| Open AccessPersistent inequality in economically optimal climate policies
Benefit-cost analyses of climate policies have generated conflicting assessments; as social welfare is affected by regional heterogeneity. Here the authors show that economically optimal pathways are consistent with climate stabilization but are characterized by persistent economic inequalities due to climate damages.
- Paolo Gazzotti
- , Johannes Emmerling
- & Massimo Tavoni
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Article
| Open AccessOpen fire exposure increases the risk of pregnancy loss in South Asia
Open fires can increase heavy exposure to hazardous particulate matters, and thus harm human health, particularly among the vulnerable individuals, such as pregnant women. Here, the authors show an association between maternal exposure to fire smoke and increased risk of pregnancy loss in South Asia.
- Tao Xue
- , Guannan Geng
- & Tong Zhu
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Article
| Open AccessDisproportionate exposure to urban heat island intensity across major US cities
Individual exposure to heat is associated with adverse health and economic outcomes. Here, the authors show that people of color and people living in poverty bear a disproportionate burden of urban heat exposure in almost all major cities in the continental United States.
- Angel Hsu
- , Glenn Sheriff
- & Diego Manya
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Article
| Open AccessSpurious North Tropical Atlantic precursors to El Niño
It has been suggested that sea surface temperatures in the North Tropical Atlantic exert strong influence on the evolution of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Here, the authors argue that observed statistics are fully consistent with ENSO driving climate variations in the Atlantic and not vice versa.
- Wenjun Zhang
- , Feng Jiang
- & Axel Timmermann
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Article
| Open AccessAgricultural subsidies and global greenhouse gas emissions
Agricultural sectors receive US$600 billion per year in government support, providing incentives for GHG emission-intensive production. Here, the authors show that removing this support will not reduce global GHG emissions by much; rather it will need to be radically redirected to contribute to climate change mitigation.
- David Laborde
- , Abdullah Mamun
- & Rob Vos
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Article
| Open AccessDeforestation reduces rainfall and agricultural revenues in the Brazilian Amazon
Deforestation in the Amazon region has suggested to influence precipitation in a non-linear way. Here, the authors show that forest loss is associated with decreasing precipitation after a scale-dependent threshold is crossed, which can cause stress on agriculture if deforestation is expanded.
- Argemiro Teixeira Leite-Filho
- , Britaldo Silveira Soares-Filho
- & Jan Börner
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Article
| Open AccessMarginal ice zone fraction benchmarks sea ice and climate model skill
Climate models struggle to track the response of Arctic sea ice to warming, leading to efforts to improve sea-ice models. Here the author shows standard model metrics are poor judges of the impact of model improvements, but a new one, marginal ice zone fraction, is optimally suited to this task.
- Christopher Horvat
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Article
| Open AccessClimate signals in river flood damages emerge under sound regional disaggregation
This study introduces an empirical modeling approach allowing to separate climate and socio-economic drivers of damages by fluvial floods. It shows that climate signals are clearly detectable in Asia and Latin America.
- Inga J. Sauer
- , Ronja Reese
- & Katja Frieler
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Article
| Open AccessOcean surface energy balance allows a constraint on the sensitivity of precipitation to global warming
There is some disagreement between climate models about how much precipitation changes under global warming. Here, the authors use the ocean surface energy balance to constrain the sensitivity of precipitation to historical warming and find that it is increasing by 0.68 ± 0.51% per degree warming.
- Wei Wang
- , T. C. Chakraborty
- & Xuhui Lee
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Article
| Open AccessClimatic conditions are weak predictors of asylum migration
Adverse climatic conditions are commonly reported to shape asylum migration, but their effect relative to other drivers is unknown. Here the authors compare climatic, economic, and political factors as predictors of future asylum flows to the EU and find that war and repression are the most important factors.
- Sebastian Schutte
- , Jonas Vestby
- & Halvard Buhaug
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Article
| Open AccessPolicy assessments for the carbon emission flows and sustainability of Bitcoin blockchain operation in China
The growing energy consumption and carbon emissions of Bitcoin mining could potentially undermine global sustainability efforts. Here, the authors show the annual energy consumption of the Bitcoin blockchain in China is expected to peak in 2024 at 296.59 Twh and generate 130.50 million metric tons of carbon emissions.
- Shangrong Jiang
- , Yuze Li
- & Shouyang Wang
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Article
| Open AccessMeasuring inequality in community resilience to natural disasters using large-scale mobility data
Understanding how cities respond to extreme weather is critical; as such events are becoming more frequent. Using anonymized mobile phone data for Houston, Texas during Hurricane Harvey in 2017, the authors find that mobility behavior exposes neighborhood disparities in resilience capacity and recovery.
- Boyeong Hong
- , Bartosz J. Bonczak
- & Constantine E. Kontokosta
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Article
| Open AccessMalaria trends in Ethiopian highlands track the 2000 ‘slowdown’ in global warming
The effect of climate change on highland malaria transmission remains unclear because of increasing and decreasing trends. Here, Rodó et al. analyze malaria case data and climate data for the Ethiopian highlands from 1968 to 2008 and find that changes in temperature and associated climate variability facilitated the effect of interventions at the beginning of the 21st century.
- Xavier Rodó
- , Pamela P. Martinez
- & Mercedes Pascual
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Article
| Open AccessIrrigation of biomass plantations may globally increase water stress more than climate change
The authors here model how water stress would be affected either by biomass plantations combined with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) in a strong climate mitigation scenario (1.5 °C warming in 2100) or by climate impacts in a strong climate change scenario (3 °C warming in 2100).
- Fabian Stenzel
- , Peter Greve
- & Dieter Gerten
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Article
| Open AccessContrasting long-term temperature trends reveal minor changes in projected potential evapotranspiration in the US Midwest
Warming in the US Midwest is believed to increase the water needed to grow crops. This study finds that, on the contrary, due to rising rainfall and minimum temperature, and decreasing maximum temperature, potential crop water demand remains unchanged despite the warming climate.
- Bruno Basso
- , Rafael A. Martinez-Feria
- & Joe T. Ritchie
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Article
| Open AccessMean sea surface temperature changes influence ENSO-related precipitation changes in the mid-latitudes
El Niño-driven precipitation profoundly affects the mid-latitudes, but how this impact changes in the future is uncertain. Here, the authors show that changes in the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures causes an increase in rainfall linked to El Niño events of about 20% over East Asia and North America.
- Young-Min Yang
- , Jae-Heung Park
- & Xiao Luo
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Article
| Open AccessPower sector investment implications of climate impacts on renewable resources in Latin America and the Caribbean
Substantial investment will be required in renewables to implement climate change mitigation. Here, the authors focus on Latin America and the Caribbean and find that climate impacts on renewables would result in additional investments $12-114 billion by 2100.
- Silvia R. Santos da Silva
- , Mohamad I. Hejazi
- & Chris R. Vernon
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Article
| Open AccessProjecting heat-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios in China
Global warming is expected to increase mortality due to heat stress in many regions. Here, the authors asses how mortality due to high temperatures changes in China changes for different demographic groups and show that heat-related excess mortality is increasing under climate change, a process that is strongly amplified by population ageing.
- Jun Yang
- , Maigeng Zhou
- & Qiyong Liu
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Article
| Open AccessUnder-reporting of greenhouse gas emissions in U.S. cities
Many cities in the US self-report greenhouse gas emissions. Here, the authors find that US cities under-report their own greenhouse gas emissions, on average, by 18.3% because city inventories omit some fuels and source types and estimate transportation emissions differently.
- Kevin Robert Gurney
- , Jianming Liang
- & Thomas Lauvaux
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Article
| Open AccessGreater fuel efficiency is potentially preferable to reducing NOx emissions for aviation’s climate impacts
The regulation of aircraft engine NOx emissions was introduced to improve local air quality and reduce NOx emissions at altitude. Here, the authors find that greater fuel efficiency of aircrafts, and therefore lower CO2 emissions, could be preferable to reducing NOx emissions in terms of the aviation industries future climate impacts.
- Agnieszka Skowron
- , David S. Lee
- & Bethan Owen
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Article
| Open AccessSouthern Ocean in-situ temperature trends over 25 years emerge from interannual variability
The Southern Ocean takes up the most heat and carbon, yet because of its remote and harsh location, it remains relatively sparsely measured. Here the authors use a 25 year temperature series which shows a clear, long term trend in subsurface warming that emerges from interannual variability.
- Matthis Auger
- , Rosemary Morrow
- & Rebecca Cowley