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| Open AccessModel spread in tropical low cloud feedback tied to overturning circulation response to warming
The magnitude of the tropical low cloud feedback, which contributes considerably to uncertainty in estimates of climate sensitivity, is closely linked to tropical deep convection and its effects on the tropical atmospheric overturning circulation.
- Kathleen A. Schiro
- , Hui Su
- & J. David Neelin
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Article
| Open AccessDrivers of recent decline in dust activity over East Asia
Changes in climatic factors mainly drive the decline of East Asian dust activity in the past two decades. The weakening of surface winds plays a dominant role, and the increasing of vegetation cover and soil moisture also has key contribution
- Chenglai Wu
- , Zhaohui Lin
- & Ying Li
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Article
| Open AccessA predictable prospect of the South Asian summer monsoon
The authors identify a predictable component of the South Asian summer monsoon that is associated with the variability of the monsoon trough modulated by tropical sea surface temperatures.
- Tuantuan Zhang
- , Xingwen Jiang
- & Zhenning Li
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| Open AccessEmergence of changing Central-Pacific and Eastern-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation in a warming climate
Under global warming, increased variability in El Niño sea surface temperature was projected to be detectable by about 2070. Here the authors show that the increased variability of a type of more impactful El Niño events is likely detectable by 2030.
- Tao Geng
- , Wenju Cai
- & Michael J. McPhaden
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Article
| Open AccessSouthern Indian Ocean Dipole as a trigger for Central Pacific El Niño since the 2000s
Predicting the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) since the 2000s has become increasingly challenging. Here the authors show that the Southern Indian Ocean Dipole has become a key precursor of Central Pacific El Niño since the 2000s with a 14-month lead.
- Hyun-Su Jo
- , Yoo-Geun Ham
- & Hyerim Kim
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| Open AccessDiscrepancies between observations and climate models of large-scale wind-driven Greenland melt influence sea-level rise projections
Here, the authors highlight that a better representation of large-scale wind-driven warming processes in climate models has potential for lessening sea-level rise projection uncertainties associated with Greenland ice sheet melt.
- Dániel Topál
- , Qinghua Ding
- & Ildikó Pieczka
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Article
| Open AccessOzone impact from solar energetic particles cools the polar stratosphere
This work reveals a significant energetic particle precipitation (EPP) impact on ozone and stratospheric temperatures during late winter/spring and highlights the need for an improved representation of decadal EPP forcing in climate simulations.
- Monika E. Szela̧g
- , Daniel R. Marsh
- & Niilo Kalakoski
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| Open AccessThe influence of recent and future climate change on spring Arctic cyclones
Rapid warming and Arctic sea ice melt will drive intensification of regional storms, increasing wind speeds and precipitation. Increasingly extreme storms exacerbate climate change effects and damage to local ecosystems, communities, and industries.
- Chelsea L. Parker
- , Priscilla A. Mooney
- & Linette N. Boisvert
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| Open AccessA potential explanation for the global increase in tropical cyclone rapid intensification
This study shows intensification rates of tropical cyclones around the world have significantly increased, and environmental conditions around storms are becoming more favorable. Human-caused climate change is contributing to both trends.
- Kieran Bhatia
- , Alexander Baker
- & Carolyn Whitlock
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| Open AccessVegetation type is an important predictor of the arctic summer land surface energy budget
An international team of researchers finds high potential for improving climate projections by a more comprehensive treatment of largely ignored Arctic vegetation types, underscoring the importance of Arctic energy exchange measuring stations.
- Jacqueline Oehri
- , Gabriela Schaepman-Strub
- & Scott D. Chambers
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| Open AccessIntercomparison of regional loss estimates from global synthetic tropical cyclone models
Various synthetic tropical cyclone datasets exist for risk assessment purposes. Here, the authors conduct a global dataset comparison to assess their suitability and applicability in answering different impact-related questions.
- Simona Meiler
- , Thomas Vogt
- & David N. Bresch
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Article
| Open AccessDeforestation intensifies daily temperature variability in the northern extratropics
A new study finds that deforestation in the northern extratropics can enhance horizontal temperature advection through biogeophysical processes, leading to higher local daily temperature variability, particularly in winter.
- Jun Ge
- , Qi Liu
- & Weidong Guo
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| Open AccessUsing modelled relationships and satellite observations to attribute modelled aerosol biases over biomass burning regions
Error attribution based on modelled relationships and satellite observations suggests that errors in global models are more important and require more concerns than emission errors in creating the overall uncertainties for biomass burning aerosols.
- Qirui Zhong
- , Nick Schutgens
- & Mian Chin
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Article
| Open AccessGlobal forestation and deforestation affect remote climate via adjusted atmosphere and ocean circulation
Based on coupled climate model simulations the authors show that changes to the Earth’s surface energy balance following global-scale forestation and deforestation may change the strength of the jet stream, the Hadley cell, and the ocean circulation, which alters remote climate patterns across the globe
- Raphael Portmann
- , Urs Beyerle
- & Sebastian Schemm
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| Open AccessTropical modulation of East Asia air pollution
In this study, it is suggested that the daily PM10 level in East Asia is remotely controlled by the convection over the equatorial Indian Ocean and western Pacific. This tropical modulation explains up to 15% of daily PM10 variability in the region.
- Myung-Il Jung
- , Seok-Woo Son
- & Deliang Chen
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Article
| Open AccessStrong influence of north Pacific Ocean variability on Indian summer heatwaves
New study finds that Summer Indian heatwaves are controlled by the large scale atmospheric circulation associated with the Pacific Meridional Mode.
- Vittal Hari
- , Subimal Ghosh
- & Rohini Kumar
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| Open AccessA central arctic extreme aerosol event triggered by a warm air-mass intrusion
Warm and moist air-mass intrusions into the Arctic are more frequent than the past decades. Here, the authors show that warm air mass intrusions from northern Eurasia inject record amounts of aerosols into the central Arctic Ocean strongly impacting atmospheric chemistry and cloud properties.
- Lubna Dada
- , Hélène Angot
- & Julia Schmale
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| Open AccessThe Holocene temperature conundrum answered by mollusk records from East Asia
Scientists have been puzzled by the disparity between climate simulations of the past 12,000 years and geological records. Dong et al. reconstructed past annual and seasonal temperatures from land snail records to examine the potential seasonal bias.
- Yajie Dong
- , Naiqin Wu
- & Houyuan Lu
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Article
| Open AccessDeep learning for twelve hour precipitation forecasts
Can AI learn from atmospheric data and improve weather forecasting? The neural network MetNet-2 achieves this by forecasting the fast changing variable of precipitation up to 12 h ahead more accurately and efficiently than traditional models based on hand-coded physics.
- Lasse Espeholt
- , Shreya Agrawal
- & Nal Kalchbrenner
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Article
| Open AccessLarge contribution of fossil-derived components to aqueous secondary organic aerosols in China
Isotope fingerprinting is used to track precursor sources and formation pathways of aqueous SOA, such as oxalic acid, finding that fossil fuel precursors contributions have largely been underestimated.
- Buqing Xu
- , Gan Zhang
- & Guoying Sheng
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Article
| Open AccessNatural and anthropogenic contributions to the hurricane drought of the 1970s–1980s
Atlantic hurricane numbers noticeably decreased in the 1970s and 1980s partly due to the cooling effect of eolian dust lofted from the Sahara, in response to local climate effects of aerosol pollutants emitted from Europe and North America.
- Raphaël Rousseau-Rizzi
- & Kerry Emanuel
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| Open AccessEarlier onset of North Atlantic hurricane season with warming oceans
There is a significant trend in recent decades towards an earlier start to North Atlantic hurricane seasons. Both the first named storm and first U.S. landfall of the year are occurring earlier. This shift is physically linked to warmer western North Atlantic sea surface temperatures in spring.
- Ryan E. Truchelut
- , Philip J. Klotzbach
- & Eric S. Blake
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| Open AccessCoarse sea spray inhibits lightning
Previous hypotheses cannot fully explain the large lightning excess over land compared to ocean. It is found that coarse sea spray that create large drops precipitates cloud water before it can freeze, thus robbing the fuel for cloud electrification
- Zengxin Pan
- , Feiyue Mao
- & Wei Gong
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| Open AccessTropical cyclone-blackout-heatwave compound hazard resilience in a changing climate
The study found that long-duration heatwaves are much more likely to follow power-damaging tropical cyclones in the future RCP8.5 climate, with the impact of longer-than-5-day tropical cyclone-blackout-heatwave compound hazard increasing by a factor of 23 over the 21st century.
- Kairui Feng
- , Min Ouyang
- & Ning Lin
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Article
| Open AccessInverse altitude effect disputes the theoretical foundation of stable isotope paleoaltimetry
The “inverse altitude effect” (IEA) directly contradicts the basic theory of stable isotope paleoaltimetry. This study explores the causes of the IAE from an atmospheric circulation perspective using δD in water vapor on the global scale.
- Zhaowei Jing
- , Wusheng Yu
- & Rong Guo
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Matters Arising
| Open AccessReply to: Uncertainty in near-term temperature evolution must not obscure assessments of climate mitigation benefits
- Bjørn H. Samset
- , Jan S. Fuglestvedt
- & Marianne T. Lund
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| Open AccessCentral tropical Pacific convection drives extreme high temperatures and surface melt on the Larsen C Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula
Landfalling atmospheric rivers on the Antarctic Peninsula, which lead to strong surface melting that can cause ice shelf collapse, have been linked to localized deep convection in the central tropical Pacific northeast of Fiji.
- Kyle R. Clem
- , Deniz Bozkurt
- & John Turner
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| Open AccessMulti-year El Niño events tied to the North Pacific Oscillation
The causes of long-lasting behaviors of multi-year El Niño are still not fully understood. Here, the authors find that persistent two-way teleconnections between the North Pacific Oscillation and the tropical Pacific constitute a key source of multi-year El Niño.
- Ruiqiang Ding
- , Yu‐Heng Tseng
- & Feifei Li
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Article
| Open AccessAccelerated western European heatwave trends linked to more-persistent double jets over Eurasia
Europe is a heatwave hotspot exhibiting three-to-four times faster upward trends compared to the rest of the northern midlatitudes. Here, this accelerated trend is linked to the increased persistence of Eurasian double jets in the upper troposphere.
- Efi Rousi
- , Kai Kornhuber
- & Dim Coumou
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Article
| Open AccessSeparate luminous structures leading positive leader steps
The lightning's nature is that different-polarity leaders extend in air. Only negative leaders' development was previously associated to floating plasma. We found that the floating plasma could also lead the positive leader stepwise development.
- Shengxin Huang
- , Weijiang Chen
- & Zhiyuan Zhang
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Article
| Open AccessReactive halogens increase the global methane lifetime and radiative forcing in the 21st century
Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas and previous studies focus on its sources with less attention on the loss. Here the authors show that reactive halogen species, not considered in climate projections, significantly reduces the methane loss, increasing its lifetime, burden, and radiative forcing.
- Qinyi Li
- , Rafael P. Fernandez
- & Alfonso Saiz-Lopez
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Article
| Open AccessAmazonian terrestrial water balance inferred from satellite-observed water vapor isotopes
The evolution of the Amazon forest is tightly coupled to its terrestrial water balance. Here, the authors show that forest biomass changes in the Amazon are a driver of the spatiotemporal variation of evapotranspiration, and such changes could have a larger impact on water availability in the dry regions (southern, eastern) of the Amazon.
- Mingjie Shi
- , John R. Worden
- & Joshua B. Fisher
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Article
| Open AccessPotential fire risks in South America under anthropogenic forcing hidden by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
Fire emissions in South America consistently decreased in 2003–2019, although anthropogenic forcing could exacerbate drought and fire risks. Here the authors find that the decreasing fires were associated with climatic conditions unfavorable for intensifying and spreading fires, led by the phase transition of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.
- Yanfeng Wang
- & Ping Huang
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Article
| Open AccessWhat sets aeolian dune height?
Giant dunes—stunning landforms that grow in patterns as wind blows sand grains over thousands of years—are measured across the entire planet for the first time. With this data, it’s shown the dunes can, in principle, grow in scale indefinitely.
- Andrew Gunn
- , Giampietro Casasanta
- & Douglas J. Jerolmack
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Article
| Open AccessJet stream position explains regional anomalies in European beech forest productivity and tree growth
Here the authors show that extremes in the summer jet stream position over Europe create a beech forest productivity dipole between northwestern and southeastern Europe and can result in regional anomalies in forest carbon uptake and growth.
- Isabel Dorado-Liñán
- , Blanca Ayarzagüena
- & Valerie Trouet
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Article
| Open AccessNew seasonal pattern of pollution emerges from changing North American wildfires
Growing emissions from Pacific Northwest wildfires have increased atmospheric carbon monoxide in August, raising questions about potential health impacts as the seasonal pattern of air quality changes for large regions of North America.
- Rebecca R. Buchholz
- , Mijeong Park
- & Sheryl Magzamen
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Article
| Open AccessAttribution of 2020 hurricane season extreme rainfall to human-induced climate change
During the 2020 hurricane season climate change increased the extreme rainfall rates and amounts by 5–10%.
- Kevin A. Reed
- , Michael F. Wehner
- & Colin M. Zarzycki
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Article
| Open AccessDrying in the low-latitude Atlantic Ocean contributed to terrestrial water storage depletion across Eurasia
Total water storage in Eurasia can be driven by both climate variability and human activities, with the latter suggested as the key factor for water loss. However, here the authors show that drying in the low-latitude Atlantic Ocean is the dominant force in storage depeletion during 2003-2017.
- Zexi Shen
- , Qiang Zhang
- & Wenhuan Wu
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Article
| Open AccessBlack carbon-climate interactions regulate dust burdens over India revealed during COVID-19
Black carbon produced by human activities impacts climate. Here, the authors find that black carbon-climate interactions regulate Indian dust during the premonsoon season and further affect the outbreak of the subsequent Indian summer monsoon.
- Linyi Wei
- , Zheng Lu
- & Yiquan Jiang
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Article
| Open AccessThe future poleward shift of Southern Hemisphere summer mid-latitude storm tracks stems from ocean coupling
Mid-latitude storm tracks control most of the weather and climate variability in the extratropics. Here the authors show that, in the Southern Hemisphere, ocean processes will act to shift the summer storm tracks poleward in coming decades.
- Rei Chemke
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Article
| Open AccessProjected climate-driven changes in pollen emission season length and magnitude over the continental United States
Atmospheric conditions affect the release of anemophilous pollen. Zhang et al. use a pollen emission model together with future climate data to simulate changes in pollen emission. The study shows that climate change driven pollen increase and seasonal changes may increase seasonal allergies
- Yingxiao Zhang
- & Allison L. Steiner
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Article
| Open AccessEnhanced jet stream waviness induced by suppressed tropical Pacific convection during boreal summer
The Northern Hemisphere summer circulation in the midlatitudes has become more “meandering” over the past decades, but the cause of the change remains elusive. Here the authors reveal that the waiver trending pattern results from internal climate forcing associated with sea surface temperature low frequency variability over the tropical Eastern Pacific.
- Xiaoting Sun
- , Qinghua Ding
- & Yihui Ding
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Article
| Open AccessSpatial and temporal expansion of global wildland fire activity in response to climate change
Global climatic fire-prone regions were identified, assessing possible future climate change impacts. A general spatial expansion of these regions and a frequency increase of the fire-prone conditions are expected, especially in Boreal regions.
- Martín Senande-Rivera
- , Damián Insua-Costa
- & Gonzalo Miguez-Macho
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Article
| Open AccessLimited surface impacts of the January 2021 sudden stratospheric warming
Experimental forecasts show that a disturbed stratospheric polar vortex was not to blame for the deadly North American cold air outbreak in February 2021 - but it may have acted to sustain weather patterns and increase predictability in early 2021.
- N. A. Davis
- , J. H. Richter
- & E. LaJoie
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Article
| Open AccessBlack carbon footprint of human presence in Antarctica
The snow surrounding research facilities and shore tourist-landing sites in Antarctica was found to be darker than elsewhere in the continent, which suggests that local emissions of black carbon are accelerating seasonal snowmelt in impacted regions.
- Raúl R. Cordero
- , Edgardo Sepúlveda
- & Gino Casassa
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Article
| Open AccessAbrupt emissions reductions during COVID-19 contributed to record summer rainfall in China
In the summer of 2020, China experienced record rainfall and flooding. Here, the authors investigate the connection between the rainfall and the abrupt decrease in emissions due to Covid-19 and find that the emission decrease may have contributed to the rainfall.
- Yang Yang
- , Lili Ren
- & Zhen-Qiang Zhou
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Article
| Open AccessA re-appraisal of the ENSO response to volcanism with paleoclimate data assimilation
It has been argued that volcanic eruptions can influence the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but the strength of this relationship is not well known. Here, the authors use paleoclimate data assimilation methods to study the linkage over the last millennium and find that there is only a weak association between volcanism and ENSO.
- Feng Zhu
- , Julien Emile-Geay
- & Jonathan King
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Article
| Open AccessRobust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss
The degree to which Arctic sea ice decline influences the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation is widely debated. Here, the authors use a coordinated multi-model experiment to show that Arctic sea ice loss causes a weakening of the mid-latitude westerly winds, but the effect is overall small.
- D. M. Smith
- , R. Eade
- & A. Walsh
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Article
| Open AccessContrasting impacts of forests on cloud cover based on satellite observations
How forests influence cloud cover in different regions is not well understood. Here, the authors use satellite data to show that forests enhance clouds over most temperate and boreal forests but inhibited clouds over forests of Amazon, Central Africa, and Southeast US relative to nonforest areas.
- Ru Xu
- , Yan Li
- & Bojie Fu