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| Open AccessPacific decadal oscillation causes fewer near-equatorial cyclones in the North Indian Ocean
The north Indian Ocean is a hotbed for Low Latitude Cyclones (LLCs; originating between 5°N and 11°N). This study finds a remarkable decline in the frequency of LLCs in recent decades modulated by the remote influence of Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
- Shinto Roose
- , R. S. Ajayamohan
- & M. Rajeevan
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Article
| Open AccessWeakened AMOC related to cooling and atmospheric circulation shifts in the last interglacial Eastern Mediterranean
The warm last interglacial serves as a period to investigate climate change associated with a weakened AMOC. Here the authors report evidence of Eastern Mediterranean cooling and accompanied atmospheric circulation shifts affecting rainfall.
- Elan J. Levy
- , Hubert B. Vonhof
- & Gerald H. Haug
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Article
| Open AccessRecent increases in tropical cyclone rapid intensification events in global offshore regions
Rapid intensification of tropical cyclones has been occurring closer to land since 1980 due to climate change. This shift can degenerate the forecast skill and increase the danger that tropical cyclones pose to coastal regions.
- Yi Li
- , Youmin Tang
- & Qiang Wang
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Article
| Open AccessMolecular rearrangement of bicyclic peroxy radicals is a key route to aerosol from aromatics
The oxidation of aromatics contributes significantly to the formation of atmospheric aerosol. Using toluene as an example the authors demonstrate a molecular rearrangement channel in the oxidation mechanism and show that the bicyclic peroxy radicals are much less stable than previously thought and can lead to aerosol-forming low-volatility products with up to 9 oxygen atoms on sub-second timescales
- Siddharth Iyer
- , Avinash Kumar
- & Matti Rissanen
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Article
| Open AccessNational quantifications of methane emissions from fuel exploitation using high resolution inversions of satellite observations
High-resolution satellite data enables a unique verification of national methane emissions worldwide. Global estimates are 63 Tg a−1 for oil-gas, 30% higher than the UNFCCC reports due to under-reporting by four largest emitters, and 33 Tg a−1 for coal, consistent with previous estimates.
- Lu Shen
- , Daniel J. Jacob
- & Jintai Lin
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Article
| Open AccessFuture increased risk from extratropical windstorms in northern Europe
Storm severity indices of European winter storms in climate models show future increased storm losses in northwestern Europe, caused by changes in the location and intensity of storms, and increasing population.
- Alexander S. Little
- , Matthew D. K. Priestley
- & Jennifer L. Catto
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Article
| Open AccessOptimal reactive nitrogen control pathways identified for cost-effective PM2.5 mitigation in Europe
Reactive nitrogen (Nr) contributes strongly to PM2.5 air pollution in Europe. Here, authors identify diverse Nr control pathways for Europe depending on emission and pollution formation and a priority of NH3 control when costs are considered.
- Zehui Liu
- , Harald E. Rieder
- & Lin Zhang
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Article
| Open AccessUniversal alignment in turbulent pair dispersion
Turbulent pair dispersion is relevant for mixing processes such as microplastics transport in the ocean or dynamics of water droplets in clouds. The authors present a geometrical framework and empirical evidence that elucidate the universality of the process across scales, while forming a bridge with the classical Richardson theory.
- Ron Shnapp
- , Stefano Brizzolara
- & Markus Holzner
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Article
| Open AccessQBO deepens MJO convection
This paper shows that the vertical growth of deep convective systems within Madden-Julian oscillation envelopes is facilitated by mean state changes in the upper-troposphere and lower-stratosphere during easterly Quasi-Biennial Oscillation winters.
- Daeho Jin
- , Daehyun Kim
- & Lazaros Oreopoulos
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Article
| Open AccessRisks of synchronized low yields are underestimated in climate and crop model projections
Simultaneous harvest failures across crop-producing regions are major threats to global food security. A strongly meandering jet can trigger these, however, climate and crop models underestimate effects with consequences for climate risk assessments.
- Kai Kornhuber
- , Corey Lesk
- & Radley M. Horton
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Article
| Open AccessStratospheric water vapor affecting atmospheric circulation
This study investigates the role of water in the lower-most stratosphere, affecting dynamics of the stratosphere and troposphere, and shows that common water vapor transport schemes can cause biases, present in nearly all modern climate models.
- Edward Charlesworth
- , Felix Plöger
- & Martin Riese
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Article
| Open AccessRapid strengthening of westerlies accompanied intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciation
The amount and composition of North Pacific dust tracked by rock magnetism suggests that the intensification of North Hemisphere Glaciation ca. 2.7 million years ago marked the permanent crossing of a climate threshold.
- Joshua D. Bridges
- , John A. Tarduno
- & Timothy D. Herbert
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Article
| Open AccessRobust projection of East Asian summer monsoon rainfall based on dynamical modes of variability
Projecting regional hydrological response to climate change has been a longstanding challenge. By using the dominant precipitation modes as “fingerprints”, this study shows the robust Asian monsoon rainfall response to anthropogenic warming.
- Daokai Xue
- , Jian Lu
- & Yaocun Zhang
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| Open AccessSummer atmospheric circulation over Greenland in response to Arctic amplification and diminished spring snow cover
A shift in summer atmospheric circulation has accelerated Greenland Ice Sheet melt. The authors show that diminished North American snow cover supports these conditions by inducing a stationary Rossby wave that favors high pressure over Greenland.
- Jonathon R. Preece
- , Thomas L. Mote
- & Gabriel J. Kooperman
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Article
| Open AccessIncrease in Cape Verde hurricanes during Atlantic Niño
Atlantic Niño, the Atlantic counterpart of the Pacific El Niño, increases the likelihood of powerful hurricanes developing near the Cape Verde islands, elevating associated risks for the Caribbean islands and the U.S.
- Dongmin Kim
- , Sang-Ki Lee
- & Jason Dunion
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Matters Arising
| Open AccessReply to: Response to limited surface impacts of the January 2021 sudden stratospheric warming
- Nicholas A. Davis
- , Jadwiga H. Richter
- & Emerson LaJoie
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Matters Arising
| Open AccessResponse to Limited surface impacts of the January 2021 sudden stratospheric warming
- Judah Cohen
- , Laurie Agel
- & Ian White
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Article
| Open AccessRole of the Maritime Continent in the remote influence of Atlantic Niño on the Pacific
Equatorial Atlantic sea-surface temperature anomalies force an eastward propagating atmospheric Kelvin wave, enabling the Atlantic to impact the Pacific, with the interaction of the Kelvin wave and the Maritime Continent critical in this teleconnection.
- Siying Liu
- , Ping Chang
- & Ingo Richter
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Article
| Open AccessIncreasing global precipitation whiplash due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions
This study shows that the occurrence frequency of global precipitation whiplash is projected to be ~2.6 times higher by the end of the 21st century compared to 1979–2019, with increasingly rapid and intense transitions between the two extremes.
- Xuezhi Tan
- , Xinxin Wu
- & Bingjun Liu
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Article
| Open AccessUnified theoretical framework for black carbon mixing state allows greater accuracy of climate effect estimation
The authors build a unified theoretical framework of black carbon mixing state and find a universal law, applicable in most climate/atmospheric chemistry models, which can greatly increase accuracy of black carbon climate effect estimation.
- Jiandong Wang
- , Jiaping Wang
- & Aijun Ding
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Article
| Open AccessAerosol breezes drive cloud and precipitation increases
It is shown here that gradients in aerosol emissions, such as those that occur with wildfires or above cities, drive thermodynamic circulations called “aerosol breezes” that may enhance precipitation and cloudiness in the cleaner regions of the aerosol gradient.
- Gabrielle R. Leung
- & Susan C. van den Heever
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Article
| Open AccessThe most at-risk regions in the world for high-impact heatwaves
The global risk of record-breaking heatwaves is assessed, with the most at-risk regions identified. It is shown that record-smashing events that currently appear implausible could happen anywhere as a result of climate change.
- Vikki Thompson
- , Dann Mitchell
- & Julia M. Slingo
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| Open AccessWidespread detection of chlorine oxyacids in the Arctic atmosphere
Observations are reported of HClO3 and HClO4 in the atmosphere and their widespread occurrence over the pan-Arctic during spring, providing further insights into atmospheric chlorine cycling in the polar environment.
- Yee Jun Tham
- , Nina Sarnela
- & Alfonso Saiz-Lopez
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Article
| Open AccessFuture Indian Ocean warming patterns
Strong negative climatological air-sea interactions effectively damp warming over the eastern Indian Ocean, resulting in weakening of the winds therein. This, in turn, changes the strength of ocean currents, which is considered as the primary mechanism responsible for modulating warming patterns.
- Sahil Sharma
- , Kyung-Ja Ha
- & Eui-Seok Chung
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| Open AccessIncreasing extreme melt in northeast Greenland linked to foehn winds and atmospheric rivers
Extreme ice sheet melt events in northeast Greenland occur after intense water vapor transport into northwest Greenland by atmospheric rivers. Through the foehn effect, the air becomes warmer and drier as it descends the ice sheet slope.
- Kyle S. Mattingly
- , Jenny V. Turton
- & Thomas L. Mote
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Matters Arising
| Open AccessReply to: No evidence of worsening Arctic springtime ozone losses over the 21st century
- Peter von der Gathen
- , Rigel Kivi
- & Markus Rex
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Matters Arising
| Open AccessNo evidence of worsening Arctic springtime ozone losses over the 21st century
- L. M. Polvani
- , J. Keeble
- & K. H. Rosenlof
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Article
| Open AccessPredictability of fossil fuel CO2 from air quality emissions
The historical changes in country emissions of greenhouse gases and air quality pollutants are classified together as a function of economic development, providing valuable guidance to emission scenario development.
- Kazuyuki Miyazaki
- & Kevin Bowman
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Article
| Open AccessSea level rise from West Antarctic mass loss significantly modified by large snowfall anomalies
The authors combine measurements of ice loss from West Antarctica with climate modelling to show that periods of drought or extremely heavy precipitation can significantly increase or decrease rates of mass loss for periods lasting several years.
- Benjamin J. Davison
- , Anna E. Hogg
- & Pierre Dutrieux
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Article
| Open AccessEvidence-based guidance on reflective pavement for urban heat mitigation in Arizona
While reflective pavement has been proposed and applied in pilot projects, its actual cooling performance remains unclear. Here, authors assessed the cooling potential of reflective pavement in Phoenix, AZ, using multiple heat metrics, reflectivity measures, and literature to provide a set of implementation guidelines.
- Florian A. Schneider
- , Johny Cordova Ortiz
- & Ariane Middel
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Article
| Open AccessVariability conceals emerging trend in 100yr projections of UK local hourly rainfall extremes
Climate projections at km-scale show that local hourly precipitation extremes in the UK become 4-times more frequent by 2070, while they do not intensify gradually with warming, but tend to cluster in time.
- Elizabeth J. Kendon
- , Erich M. Fischer
- & Chris J. Short
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Article
| Open AccessSoil moisture-evaporation coupling shifts into new gears under increasing CO2
When soil moisture is within the transitional regime that is neither too dry nor too wet, its variation affects evaporation and thus climate. This study shows that, under global warming, more areas will experience a transitional regime.
- Hsin Hsu
- & Paul A. Dirmeyer
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Article
| Open AccessNorth Atlantic oscillation controls multidecadal changes in the North Tropical Atlantic−Pacific connection
The drivers of multidecadal changes in the North Tropical Atlantic−Pacific connection are still not fully understood. Here, the authors show that they are mainly controlled by multidecadal variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation.
- Ruiqiang Ding
- , Hyacinth C. Nnamchi
- & Xumin Li
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Article
| Open AccessThe role of tropical waves in the genesis of Tropical Cyclone Seroja in the Maritime Continent
Tropical cyclone Seroja was one of the first cyclones to strike near-equatorial regions of Indonesia and East Timor. The unusual cyclogenesis close to a land mass was due to “perfect storm” conditions associated with multiple wave interactions.
- Beata Latos
- , Philippe Peyrillé
- & Adrian J. Matthews
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| Open AccessVariation of lightning-ignited wildfire patterns under climate change
This study shows that climate change is expected to result in a 41% increase in the frequency of lightning worldwide. This increase has the potential to amplify the risk of lightning-induced wildfires.
- Francisco J. Pérez-Invernón
- , Francisco J. Gordillo-Vázquez
- & Patrick Jöckel
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Article
| Open AccessOrigins of Barents-Kara sea-ice interannual variability modulated by the Atlantic pathway of El Niño–Southern Oscillation
This paper finds that the winter sea-ice over the Barents-Kara Seas has exhibited strengthened interannual variations in recent decades likely due to increased amplitudes of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation in a warming climate.
- Binhe Luo
- , Dehai Luo
- & Yao Yao
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Article
| Open AccessEquatorial waves as useful precursors to tropical cyclone occurrence and intensification
Here, the authors show that pre-existing equatorial waves are useful precursors to tropical cyclone occurrence and intensification up to two weeks ahead.
- Xiangbo Feng
- , Gui-Ying Yang
- & John Methven
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Article
| Open AccessRevised historical Northern Hemisphere black carbon emissions based on inverse modeling of ice core records
Black Carbon is an important climate forcer with poorly constraint historic emission fluxes and therefore large emission uncertainty. Here, ice-core data are combined with modelling to reconstruct historical emissions of Black carbon and finding gaps with the existing inventories, which implies potential climate sensitivity biases
- Sabine Eckhardt
- , Ignacio Pisso
- & Andreas Stohl
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Article
| Open AccessMethane emissions offset atmospheric carbon dioxide uptake in coastal macroalgae, mixed vegetation and sediment ecosystems
Coastal ecosystems are promoted as nature-based solutions to climate change. Here, the authors show that natural methane emissions across a variety of vegetated and unvegetated coastal habitats can, however, offset one-third of the carbon sink capacity attributed to atmospheric carbon dioxide uptake.
- Florian Roth
- , Elias Broman
- & Alf Norkko
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Article
| Open AccessNon-linear effects of secondary organic aerosol formation and properties in multi-precursor systems
Tiny airborne particles play a critical role in two major environmental issues: climate change and air pollution. Our study highlights the important, yet often overlooked non-linear interaction of organic compounds on the formation of such particles.
- Masayuki Takeuchi
- , Thomas Berkemeier
- & Nga Lee Ng
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Article
| Open AccessStratospheric impacts on dust transport and air pollution in West Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean
Today, most operational dust forecasts extend only 2-5 days. New research finds that the stratosphere exerts long-lasting influence on Saharan dust emission and transport, contributing to subseasonal predictability for dust and air pollution over West Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean.
- Ying Dai
- , Peter Hitchcock
- & Adwoa Aboagye-Okyere
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| Open AccessUnexpected limitation of tropical cyclone genesis by subsurface tropical central-north Pacific during El Niño
Wind stress curl anomalies break the ocean dynamical bond between sea surface and subsurface, constraining tropical cyclone genesis in the tropical central-north Pacific, leading to comparable number of TC for El Niño and La Niña in the western North Pacific.
- Cong Gao
- , Lei Zhou
- & Raghu Murtugudde
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| Open AccessRisk of the hydrogen economy for atmospheric methane
H2 has the potential to become the green, low-carbon fuel of the future. However, hydrogen emissions impact atmospheric methane (CH4). Bertagni et al. investigate the fate of atmospheric CH4 in scenarios of H2 economy.
- Matteo B. Bertagni
- , Stephen W. Pacala
- & Amilcare Porporato
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Article
| Open AccessMulti-task machine learning improves multi-seasonal prediction of the Indian Ocean Dipole
A multi-task learning model is proposed to improve seasonal-to-annual prediction of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). This model captures the inter-basin interactions between ENSO and IOD and distinctive precursors of positive and negative IOD events.
- Fenghua Ling
- , Jing-Jia Luo
- & Toshio Yamagata
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Article
| Open AccessMulti-angular polarimetric remote sensing to pinpoint global aerosol absorption and direct radiative forcing
Chen et al. demonstrate the use of multi-angular polarimetric remote sensing to pinpoint global aerosol absorption and direct radiative forcing.
- Cheng Chen
- , Oleg Dubovik
- & Ying Zhang
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Article
| Open AccessA global survey of diurnal offshore propagation of rainfall
This study provides a global climatology of observed diurnal rainfall offshore propagation, identifies hotspots, and discusses the driving mechanisms for different regions.
- Junying Fang
- & Yu Du
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Article
| Open AccessAerosol effects on clouds are concealed by natural cloud heterogeneity and satellite retrieval errors
The authors showed that previous analyses which have estimated that the cloud water content decreases with increasing number of cloud droplets may have a negative bias due to variability in satellite data, thus underestimating aerosol-cloud-climate cooling.
- Antti Arola
- , Antti Lipponen
- & Harri Kokkola
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Article
| Open AccessIncrease in tropical cyclone rain rate with translation speed
Using satellite observations, the authors show that the average tropical cyclone (TC) rain rate increases significantly with translation speed. On average, the rain rate of a fast-moving TC is about 24% higher than that of a slow one.
- Shifei Tu
- , Johnny C. L. Chan
- & Yu Zhang
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Article
| Open AccessChemistry-driven changes strongly influence climate forcing from vegetation emissions
The modelling of BVOC chemistry strongly affects how doubling of BVOC emissions affects climate. Lower oxidant depletion with state-of-science chemistry leads to 43% smaller positive forcing from smaller methane increases and cloud albedo decreases.
- James Weber
- , Scott Archer-Nicholls
- & Alex T. Archibald