Research articles

Moving towards net-zero emissions requires carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies, which bring environmental and socioeconomic risks. This study reveals that demand and technological interventions in hard-to-abate sectors help to achieve net-zero targets with less reliance on CDR.

Soil carbon storage is vulnerable to various climatic and anthropogenic global change stressors (for example drought, warming, land-use intensification). Here the authors show that multiple stress factors act simultaneously to reduce soil carbon storage and persistence across global biomes.

The authors quantify how climate change-related disturbances—drought, fires and insect outbreaks—impact the sensitivity of primary productivity to subsequent water stress. They show significant increases in sensitivity following drought and fire, leading to decreased terrestrial carbon uptake.

Internal variability can strongly influence global temperature trends. Here the authors show that if the internal variability in the eastern tropical Pacific is removed from recent trends, the constrained projected warming with future CO₂ emissions is higher than currently expected.

The authors use a mechanistic microclimate model to model the below-canopy conditions for 300,000 tropical forest locations across 30 years. They show that small temperature increases have already resulted in novel temperature regimes across most sites, and highlight areas that may act as refugia.

Polluted water contributes to water scarcity. Here the authors project water demands, availability and quality under climate and socio-economic changes and show that 56–66% of the global population will be exposed to clean water scarcity at the end of the century.

International maritime shipping accounts for an important proportion of global CO₂ emissions, but its role in a world with deep decarbonization has not been thoroughly examined. Through a multi-model comparison, this study reveals the necessity of reducing and stabilizing emissions from this sector in the next few decades.

How climate services support on-farm management is not well understood. Here research shows that multi-decadal projections help farmers better identify future climate risks through reducing complexity and psychological distance, although this may be impeded by lack of confidence in data.

Projections of Arctic warming have large uncertainties. Here the authors consider ocean heat transport and its contribution to Arctic warming; high-resolution model results show increased Bering Strait transport compared with lower-resolution results, with implications for projected warming rates.

Defining thresholds for extreme weather events is important for adaptation but often ignores impacts on climate-vulnerable communities. This research finds current practices do not capture experiences of women in informal settlements and self-reported impact data could help to address the issue.

Climate change will affect the adoption of residential rooftop solar photovoltaics by changing the patterns of both electricity generation and demand. This research projects that climate change will increase the future value and optimal capacity of household rooftop solar across the United States.

Existing global economic damage assessments only focus on the impacts induced by annual temperature changes. Including variability and extremes of temperature and precipitation in climate damage projections raises global gross domestic product losses and exacerbates global disparities of economic damage.

The 15th Conference of the Parties (COP15) in Copenhagen marked an important step in global climate action with parties submitting 2020 mitigation targets. However, this retrospective study shows that many countries either have failed to meet their targets or have reduced their emissions through carbon leakage.

The authors link intensification of cold upwelling in two western boundary currents to the observed death of marine organisms, and upwelling avoidance behaviour in bull sharks. They raise concerns of increased risk of cold-mortality events for climate migrants at their poleward distribution limits.

The authors use individual-based models to assess the contribution of frugivore-mediated seed dispersal to forest restoration. They show that the movement of large birds—which disperse seeds with higher carbon storage potential—is limited in landscapes with low forest cover (<40%).

The degree to which changes in marine organisms due to warming can influence tropical cyclones is not well known. Here the authors show that changing chlorophyll patterns can lead to more landfalling tropical cyclones in East Asia.

Hydrological sensitivity describes how much precipitation changes for a given warming. Here, the authors show that the hydrological sensitivity differs between the three tropical ocean basins, which influences land rainfall changes across the tropical and mid-latitude regions.

The authors use resurrected strains of a diatom species to compare temperature optima, cell size and gene expression across 60 years. Modern samples have a 1 °C higher temperature optima and probably support increased nutrient uptake, highlighting the adaptation potential of diatoms to global change.

Using a global meta-analysis approach, the authors show that elevated CO₂ alone can increase primary productivity and leaf C/N ratio and stimulate nitrogen fixation and nitrogen use efficiency. They project increasing carbon sink and decreasing reactive nitrogen loss under climate change.

As the financial system is increasingly important in catalysing the green transition, it is critical to assess the impediments it may face. This study shows that existing financial regulations may impair the shift of financial resources from high-carbon to low-carbon assets.