Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Analysis
  • Published:

Governance in socioeconomic pathways and its role for future adaptive capacity

Nature Sustainability volume 3, pages 35–41 (2020)Cite this article

Subjects

Abstract

Weak governance is one of the key obstacles for sustainable development. Undoubtedly, improvement of governance comes with a broad range of co-benefits, including countries’ abilities to respond to pressing global challenges such as climate change. However, beyond the qualitative acknowledgement of its importance, quantifications of future pathways of governance are still lacking. This study provides projections of future governance in line with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. We find that under a ‘rocky road’ scenario, 30% of the global population would still live in countries characterized by weak governance in 2050, while under a ‘green road’ scenario, weak governance would be almost entirely overcome over the same time frame. On the basis of pathways for governance, we estimate the adaptive capacity of countries to climate change. Limits to adaptive capacity exist even under optimistic pathways beyond mid-century. Our findings underscore the importance of accounting for governance in assessments of climate change impacts.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Buy this article

  • Purchase on Springer Link
  • Instant access to full article PDF
Buy now

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Fig. 1: Evolution of governance over the twenty-first century.
Fig. 2: Country groups and population-weighted projections.
Fig. 3: Rates of change of governance.
Fig. 4: Projections of the ND-GAIN adaptation readiness score.

Similar content being viewed by others

Data availability

Governance data are available on the Worldwide Governance Indicators website (https://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/#home). Historical GDP was obtained from the Penn World Tables 7.0 (https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/productivity/pwt/pwt-releases/pwt-7.0) and projected values through the IIASA SSP database (https://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/SspDb/). Data on educational attainment and gender equality in education are accessible through the Data Explorer of the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (http://dataexplorer.wittgensteincentre.org/wcde-v2/).

Code availability

Code underlying the results is available at https://github.com/marina-andrijevic/governance2019.

References

  1. IPCC Global Warming of 1.5 °C: An IPCC Special Report (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) (IPCC, 2018).

  2. Klein, R. J. T. et al. in Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (eds Field, C. B. et al.) 899–943 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).

  3. Acemoglu, D. & Robinson, J. A. Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty (Broadway Business, 2013).

  4. Hughes, B. B. et al. Strengthening Governance Globally: Forecasing the Next 50 Years: Patterns of Potential Human Progress (Routledge, 2014).

  5. UN General Assembly Transforming Our World: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (United Nations, 2015).

  6. Eisenack, K. et al. Explaining and overcoming barriers to climate change adaptation. Nat. Clim. Change 4, 867–872 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Dasgupta, S. & De Cian, E. The influence of institutions, governance, and public opinion on the environment: synthesized findings from applied econometrics studies. Energy Res. Soc. Sci. 43, 77–95 (2018).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Berrang-Ford, L. et al. Tracking global climate change adaptation among governments. Nat. Clim. Change 9, 440–449 (2019).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Weiler, F., Klöck, C. & Dornan, M. Vulnerability, good governance, or donor interests? The allocation of aid for climate change adaptation. World Dev. 104, 65–77 (2018).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Lesnikowski, A., Ford, J., Biesbroek, R., Berrang-Ford, L. & Heymann, S. J. National-level progress on adaptation. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 261–264 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Berrang-Ford, L. et al. What drives national adaptation? A global assessment. Climatic Change 124, 441–450 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Mahmud, T. & Prowse, M. Corruption in cyclone preparedness and relief efforts in coastal Bangladesh: lessons for climate adaptation? Glob. Environ. Change 22, 933–943 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Mauro, P. Corruption and growth. Q. J. Econ. 110, 681–712 (1995).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Abed, G. T. & Gupta, S. (eds) Governance, Corruption, and Economic Performance (IMF, 2002).

  15. O’Neill, B. C. et al. The roads ahead: narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century. Glob. Environ. Change 42, 169–180 (2017).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Samir, K. C. & Lutz, W. The human core of the shared socioeconomic pathways: population scenarios by age, sex and level of education for all countries to 2100. Glob. Environ. Change 42, 181–192 (2014).

    Google Scholar 

  17. Jiang, L. & O’Neill, B. C. Global urbanization projections for the shared socioeconomic pathways. Glob. Environ. Change 42, 193–199 (2017).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Crespo Cuaresma, J. Income projections for climate change research: a framework based on human capital dynamics. Glob. Environ. Change 42, 226–236 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Leimbach, M., Kriegler, E., Roming, N. & Schwanitz, J. Future growth patterns of world regions: a GDP scenario approach. Glob. Environ. Change 42, 215–225 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Dellink, R., Chateau, J., Lanzi, E. & Magné, B. Long-term economic growth projections in the shared socioeconomic pathways. Glob. Environ. Change 42, 200–214 (2017).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Crespo Cuaresma, J. & Lutz, W. in Vienna Yearbook of Population Research (eds Muttarak, K. & Jiang, L.) 241–262 (Verlag, 2016).

  22. Rao, N. D., Sauer, P., Gidden, M. & Riahi, K. Income inequality projections for the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Futures 105, 27–39 (2018).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A. & Mastruzzi, M. The Worldwide Governance Indicators: Methodology and Analytical Issues (World Bank, 2010).

  24. Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A., Mastruzzi, M. & Bank, T. W. The Worldwide Governance Indicators Project: Answering the Critics (World Bank, 2007).

  25. Inglehart, R. & Welzel, C. How development leads to democracy: what we know about modernization today. Foreign Aff. 88, 33–48 (2009).

    Google Scholar 

  26. Epstein, D. L., Bates, R., Goldstone, J., Kristensen, I. & O’Halloran, S. Democratic transitions. Am. J. Pol. Sci. 50, 551–569 (2006).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Jha, C. K. & Sarangi, S. Women and corruption: what positions must they hold to make a difference? J. Econ. Behav. Organ. 151, 219–233 (2018).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Kraay, A. & Kaufmann, D. Growth without Governance (World Bank, 2002).

  29. Chen, C. et al. University of Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index Country Index Technical Report (Univ. Notre Dame, 2015).

  30. Brechin, S. R. & Espinoza, M. I. A case for further refinement of the Green Climate Fund’s 50:50 ratio climate change mitigation and adaptation allocation framework: toward a more targeted approach. Climatic Change 142, 311–320 (2017).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. Lobell, D. B. & Tebaldi, C. Getting caught with our plants down: the risks of a global crop yield slowdown from climate trends in the next two decades. Environ. Res. Lett. 9, 074003 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. Schleussner, C.-F. et al. Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C. Earth Syst. Dyn. 7, 327–351 (2016).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  33. King, A. D. & Harrington, L. J. The inequality of climate change from 1.5 to 2 °C of global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett. 45, 5030–5033 (2018).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  34. Schleussner, C.-F. et al. 1.5 °C hotspots: climate hazards, vulnerabilities, and impacts. Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour. 43, 135–163 (2018).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  35. King, A. D. et al. Emergence of heat extremes attributable to anthropogenic influences. Geophys. Res. Lett. 43, 3438–3443 (2016).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  36. Mace, M. J. & Verheyen, R. Loss, damage and responsibility after COP21: all options open for the Paris Agreement. Rev. Eur. Comp. Int. Environ. Law 25, 197–214 (2016).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  37. Serdeczny, O. in Loss and Damage from Climate Change: Concepts, Principles and Policy Options (eds Mechler, R. et al.) 205–220 (Springer, 2019).

  38. James, R. et al. Characterizing loss and damage from climate change. Nat. Clim. Change 4, 2014–2016 (2015).

    Google Scholar 

  39. Thomas, A. & Benjamin, L. Management of loss and damage in small island developing states: implications for a 1.5 °C or warmer world. Reg. Environ. Change 18, 2369–2378 (2018).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  40. Hegre, H. et al. Forecasting civil conflict along the shared socioeconomic pathways. Environ. Res. Lett. 11, 054002 (2016).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  41. Hallegatte, S. et al. Shock Waves: Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty (World Bank, 2015).

  42. Hinkel, J., Vuuren, D. P., Nicholls, R. J. & Klein, R. J. T. The effects of adaptation and mitigation on coastal flood impacts during the 21st century. An application of the DIVA and IMAGE models. Climatic Change 117, 783–794 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  43. Heslin, A., Deckard, N. D., Oakes, R. & Montero-Colbert, A. in Loss and Damage from Climate Change (eds Mechler, R. et al.) 237–258 (Springer, 2019).

  44. NatCatService (Munich RE, accessed 24 January 2018); http://natcatservice.munichre.com/

  45. Schleussner, C.-F., Donges, J. F., Donner, R. V. & Schellnhuber, J. H. Armed-conflict risks enhanced by climate-related disasters in ethnically fractionalized countries. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 113, 9216–9221 (2016).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  46. Abel, G. J., Brottrager, M., Crespo Cuaresma, J. & Muttarak, R. Climate, conflict and forced migration. Glob. Environ. Change 54, 239–249 (2019).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  47. Burke, M., Hsiang, S. M. & Miguel, E. Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production. Nature 527, 235–239 (2015).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  48. Heston, A., Summers, R. & Aten, B. Penn World Table 7.0 (Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and Prices at the Univ. Pennsylvania, June 2011).

  49. Wittgenstein Centre Human Capital Data Explorer Version 2.0 (Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital, 2018); http://dataexplorer.wittgensteincentre.org/wcde-v2/

  50. van den Boogaart, K. G. & Tolosana-Delgado, R. in Analyzing Compositional Data with R 13–50 (Springer, 2013).

  51. Lutz, W., Cuaresma, J. C. & Abbasi-Shavazi, M. J. Demography, education, and democracy: global trends and the case of Iran. Popul. Dev. Rev. 36, 253–281 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We are grateful to the scientific community for developing the SSP scenarios and to the International Institute for Advanced System Analysis for hosting the SSP database. M.A. and C.-F.S. acknowledge support by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (01LN1711A).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. IRI THESys, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany

    Marina Andrijevic & Carl-Friedrich Schleussner

  2. Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany

    Marina Andrijevic & Carl-Friedrich Schleussner

  3. Vienna University of Economics and Business, Vienna, Austria

    Jesus Crespo Cuaresma

  4. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria

    Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Raya Muttarak

  5. Austrian Institute of Economic Research, Vienna, Austria

    Jesus Crespo Cuaresma

  6. School of International Development, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK

    Raya Muttarak

  7. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany

    Carl-Friedrich Schleussner

Authors
  1. Marina Andrijevic
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Raya Muttarak
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

The research was designed by M.A., J.C.C. and C.-F.S. M.A. performed the analysis and created the display items. All authors contributed to the writing of the manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Marina Andrijevic.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

Additional information

Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Supplementary information

Supplementary Information

Supplementary Tables 1–3 and Figs. 1–7.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Andrijevic, M., Crespo Cuaresma, J., Muttarak, R. et al. Governance in socioeconomic pathways and its role for future adaptive capacity. Nat Sustain 3, 35–41 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0405-0

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0405-0

This article is cited by

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing