J. Clim. 30, 9847–9869 (2017)

Arctic storms significantly influence sea-ice conditions, contributing, for example, to the record-breaking low sea-ice extent observed in 2012. During the summer, cyclogenesis — the development or strengthening of storms — is impacted by the Arctic frontal zone (AFZ), a band of strong temperature gradients that straddle the Arctic coastline in response to land–sea thermal contrasts. Using the CESM large ensemble and a cyclone detection and tracking algorithm, Alex Crawford and Mark Serreze from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, Colorado, examine how summertime cyclone activity in the Arctic will be affected by future changes in the AFZ.

Credit: Stocktrek Images Inc/Alamy Stock Photo

By comparing the period 2071–2090 with 1990–2005, it is found that the June AFZ is strengthened throughout much of the troposphere, highlighting a shift toward its earlier seasonal development. These changes occur in response to antecedent snow melt and a resulting amplification of land–sea temperature contrasts. As a consequence, increased and intensified Arctic cyclogenesis is projected over the Eurasian coastline, but little change is observed in cyclone frequency overall. Thus, future changes in the AFZ impact regional cyclogenesis and have associated impacts on sea-ice melt, temperature, and snowfall.