Environ. Res. Lett. http://doi.org/h5m (2012)

Predicted shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns as the global climate warms have the potential to profoundly impact the transmission and incidence of certain infectious diseases. In particular, a widening of the tropical climatic belt has been suggested to facilitate the expansion of tropical and subtropical diseases.

One of the most important diseases in terms of human health is dengue fever; a resurging mosquito-vectored disease affecting some 40% of the world's population. Richard Erickson from the Institute of Environmental and Human Health, Texas Tech University, USA and co-authors, modelled changes in dengue season length by the end of the twenty-first century — based on the ecological response of the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) for three cities, Atlanta, Chicago and Lubbock, chosen because they are located on the edges of the range of the mosquito in the US.

They found that projected warming both increased mosquito range northwards and shortened mosquito lifespans in the south, limiting the incubation of the disease at the southern end of the range. The findings illustrate that climatic change may impair as well as enhance disease transmission.