Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

The pandemic’s true death toll: millions more than official counts

Countries have reported some five million COVID-19 deaths in two years, but global excess deaths are estimated at double or even quadruple that figure.
  1. David Adam

    1. David Adam is a science journalist in London.

    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed  Google Scholar

Relatives of a deceased person mourn during a mass burial of COVID-19 victims at the Parque Taruma cemetery in Manaus, Brazil.

A family stands at the grave of a relative who died from COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil, in May 2020. Credit: Andre Coelho/Getty

Last year’s Day of the Dead marked a grim milestone. On 1 November, the global death toll from the COVID-19 pandemic passed 5 million, official data suggested. It has now reached 5.5 million. But that figure is a significant underestimate. Records of excess mortality — a metric that involves comparing all deaths recorded with those expected to occur — show many more people than this have died in the pandemic.

Access options

Rent or buy this article

Prices vary by article type

from$1.95

to$39.95

Learn more

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Nature 601, 312-315 (2022)

doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-022-00104-8

Updates & Corrections

  • Clarification 31 January 2022: This article has been modified to include researchers’ views about COVID-19 deaths in China.

References

  1. De Nicola, G., Kauermann, G. & Hohle, M. AStA Wirtsch. Sozialstat. Arch. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11943-021-00297-w (2022).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Karlinsky, A. & Kobak, D. eLife 10, e69336 (2021).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  3. Simonsen, L. et al. PLoS Med. 10, e1001558 (2013).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  4. Paget, J. et al. J. Glob. Health 9, 020421 (2019).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  5. Jha, P. et al. Science https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abm5154 (2022).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Anand, A., Sandefur, J. & Subramanian, A. CGD Working Paper 589 (Center for Global Development, 2021).

  7. Karlinsky, A. Preprint at medRxiv https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.08.30.21262814 (2021).

  8. Koum Besson, E. S. et al. BMJ Glob. Health 6, e004564 (2021).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  9. Warsame, A. et al. Int. J. Infect. Dis. 113, 190–199 (2021).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

Download references

Subjects

Latest on:

Nature Careers

Jobs

  • Postdoctoral fellow at USC (Dr. Jian-Fu Chen lab), Los Angeles

    Two post-doc positions for studying neuroscience and craniofacial biology, crosstalk, and disease using mouse and iPSC models.

    Los Angeles, California

    USC - Center for Craniofacial Molecular Biology

  • Associate Editor, Physics of Living Systems

    The Associate Editor will decide on publishing the most exciting and consequential results in the physics of living systems.

    United States (US) - Remote

    American Physical Society

  • Senior Project Manager

    The Senior Project Manager will play a key role in enabling Springer Nature’s OA transformation, and optimising and expanding our OA business.

    London – Hybrid Working Model

    Springer Nature Ltd

  • Senior Commercial Manager (Open Access)

    This position offers a unique opportunity to influence the future of open access publishing.

    London – Hybrid Working Model

    Springer Nature Ltd

  • Postdoctoral Fellow in Immunology at Northwestern University

    Our T cell biology lab is looking for fellows interested in improving immunotherapies for cancer and autoimmune disease through immune engineering.

    Chicago, Illinois

    Choi Laboratory at Northwestern

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing

Search

Advanced search

Quick links