Abstract
Numerous theoretical calculations1,2 have been made of the effect of an increased carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere on the surface temperature of the Earth. Estimates of the increase in the surface temperature of the Earth caused by a doubling of the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere generally range from ∼0.7 to 2.9 °C. For a 10% increase in carbon dioxide, the corresponding temperature increases range from 0.096 to 0.40 °C. All these results are calculated from theoretical models which range in complexity from one-dimensional planetary radiation budget studies to three-dimensional general circulation models. Here a new approach to this problem is described which allows an empirical determination of the heating of the surface of the Earth by the carbon dioxide greenhouse effect to be calculated. This technique indicates that the heating of the Earth over the period 1880–1970 was 0.40 °C or less.
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Hoyt, D. An empirical determination of the heating of the Earth by the carbon dioxide greenhouse effect. Nature 282, 388–390 (1979). https://doi.org/10.1038/282388a0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/282388a0
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