Abstract
I WAS greatly interested in Mr. C. D. Stewart's letter (NATURE, February 20, p. 270) which expresses my meaning exactly. But I do not know why he should think I regard “as a general method of prediction one which is applicable only in particular conditions, namely, those of showery uncertain weather, and, it may be, in particular localities; and also, to some extent, to the lack of precise definition of the type of cloud to be observed”—i.e. “the smallest and thinnest fragment of cloud that can be clearly isolated.” Captain Cave mentioned some exceptions, and I others. Before the rains in India, I have often seen big clouds form and then dissolve without dropping moisture. I wrote “only for the man who, perhaps knowing nothing about scientific meteorology, desires to ascertain for himself the kind of weather he is likely to experience during the next few hours.” Such a one is not likely to examine the sky when it has settled to be wet or fair. Nevertheless, even during a downpour, if he is able to isolate a little dark cloudlet under the grey pall and see it dissolve, he may, even then, predict the early probability of finer weather with fair safety. Not long ago I arranged a game of golf under such conditions. I also wrote, “The nearer the cloudlet (the lower it is) the more closely do the conditions in which it floats approximate to those on the ground, and the more easily may it be observed; and, therefore, the more confident may be the prediction.” Of course, therefore, I referred to ‘doubtful conditions’ and to the ‘scud’ which then occurs. My eyes, at any rate, cannot make sure of cloudlets very high in the sky, for, because of the distance, what seem to be cloudlets may be considerable clouds. Moreover, these high clouds are so remote, and the conditions in which they float so unlike those in which I stand, that observation of them can be of little utility for weather prediction. On the other hand, observation of the fact that the sky is clear for all the distance up to them gives me an indication of the continuance of fine weather.
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REID, G. Weather Prediction from Observation of Cloudlets. Nature 117, 453 (1926). https://doi.org/10.1038/117453a0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/117453a0
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