Abstract
IN view of the importance of the subject, a few remarks with regard to the note in NATURE of May 19, p. 684, on “Correlation of Upper Air Variables” may perhaps be permitted me, chiefly with the object of making clear the real issues in this question. Dines1 found very high coefficients of correlation (of the order of 0.8) between various upper air variables, specially with pressure at 9-kilometre level. This led to the formulation of the Dines-Shaw theory of the sub-stratosphere and the regions above 9 kilometres as the real seat of origin of meteorological causes. In 1920, Chapman2 applied certain statistical corrections to the coefficients of correlation found by Dines and raised these to +1.00 in several instances. A correlation of +1.00 establishes absolute causal nexus. A conclusion of this nature demands close scrutiny, specially as it is being widely quoted and applied in current writings.3 In a recent memoir4 noticed in NATURE5 I have examined the statistical analysis in some detail.
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References
M.O. No. 210b, Geophys. Mem. 2, 1912; M.O. No. 220c, Geophys. Mem. 13, 1919, etc.
Proc. Roy. Soc. 98 A (1920), pp. 235–248.
M.O. No. 220i, Geophys. Mem. 19, p. 215; Sir Napier Shaw, “The Birth and Death of Cyclones.”
Mem. Ind. Met. Dept., vol. xxiv. Part ii., “On Errors of Observation and Upper Air Relationships.”
NATURE, May 19, 1923, p. 684.
M.O. No. 210f, Geophys. Mem. 6, 1914.
M.O. No. 223, “Computer's Handbook,” Section 2.
Phil. Trans. 198 A, 1902, “Errors of Judgment,” etc.
Egon S. Pearson, Biometrika, xiv., 1922.
Quar. Jour. Met. Soc., xlvii., January 1921, p. 28, etc.
Ibid. p. 25.
Mem. Ind. Met. Dept., vol. xxiv. Part I., “The Seat of Activity in the Upper Air.”
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MAHALANOBIS, P. Correlation of Upper Air Variables. Nature 112, 323–324 (1923). https://doi.org/10.1038/112323b0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/112323b0
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