Ecological epidemiology articles within Nature Communications

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  • Article
    | Open Access

    Prior studies mapping climatologically suitable areas for malaria transmission have used relatively simple thresholds for precipitation. Here the authors show that when models incorporate hydrological processes a more complex pattern of malaria suitability emerges in Africa and future shifts in suitability are more pronounced.

    • M. W. Smith
    • , T. Willis
    •  & C. J. Thomas

  • Comment
    | Open Access

    Weather may marginally affect COVID-19 dynamics, but misconceptions about the way that climate and weather drive exposure and transmission have adversely shaped risk perceptions for both policymakers and citizens. Future scientific work on this politically-fraught topic needs a more careful approach.

    • Colin J. Carlson
    • , Ana C. R. Gomez
    •  & Sadie J. Ryan

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Prior studies have investigated macroecological patterns of host sharing among viruses, although certain mammal clades have not been represented in these analyses, and the findings have not been used to predict the true network. Here the authors model the species level traits that predict viral sharing across all mammal clades and validate their predictions using an independent dataset.

    • Gregory F. Albery
    • , Evan A. Eskew
    •  & Kevin J. Olival

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Because many primary commodities cause deforestation and deforestation can increase malaria transmission, international trade can thus indirectly influence malaria risk. Here the authors use trade databases for commodites associated with deforestation to demonstrate that consumption of such commodities in developed nations could increase malaria risk in developing nations.

    • Leonardo Suveges Moreira Chaves
    • , Jacob Fry
    •  & Manfred Lenzen

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Yersinia pestis, the causative agent of plague, can change its biofilm production to influence the dynamics of flea-borne transmission. Here, the authors sequence Y. pestis isolates sampled over 40 years in China and show evidence for climate-associated selection on rpoZ to increase biofilm production.

    • Yujun Cui
    • , Boris V. Schmid
    •  & Ruifu Yang

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Dengue and Zika virus are related flaviviruses, and introduction of Zika in the Americas may have impacted dengue epidemiology. Here, Borchering et al. show that dengue incidence was unusually low in 2017 in Brazil and Colombia, and simulations incorporating immune-mediated interactions predict reductions in dengue following Zika outbreaks with subsequent rebounds.

    • Rebecca K. Borchering
    • , Angkana T. Huang
    •  & Derek A. T. Cummings

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Climate affects dynamics of infectious diseases, but the impact on respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) epidemiology isn’t well understood. Here, Baker et al. model the influence of temperature, humidity and rainfall on RSV epidemiology in the USA and Mexico and predict impact of climate change on RSV dynamics.

    • Rachel E. Baker
    • , Ayesha S. Mahmud
    •  & Bryan T. Grenfell

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The capacity to predict zoonotic disease outbreaks is hampered by data availability and complex relationships between humans, wildlife, and the environment. Here the authors present a modelling framework that identifies potential high-risk locations for Ebola outbreaks under various climatic, demographic, and land use scenarios.

    • David W. Redding
    • , Peter M. Atkinson
    •  & Kate E. Jones

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Here, Shah et al. perform a meta-analysis and show that people who live or work in agricultural land in Southeast Asia are on average 1.7 times more likely to be infected with a pathogen than controls, suggesting that agricultural land-use increases infectious disease risk.

    • Hiral A. Shah
    • , Paul Huxley
    •  & Kris A. Murray

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Here, Llewellyn and colleagues present evidence of meiotic sex in Trypanosoma cruzi, the causative agent of Chagas disease. These findings have implications for the epidemiology of the disease in endemic regions and challenge existing ideas that the parasites are strictly clonal.

    • Philipp Schwabl
    • , Hideo Imamura
    •  & Martin S. Llewellyn

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Obtaining data on antimicrobial resistance (AMR) from healthy human populations is difficult. Here, Hendriksen et al. use metagenomic analysis to obtain AMR data from untreated sewage from 79 sites in 60 countries, finding correlations with socio-economic, health and environmental factors.

    • Rene S. Hendriksen
    • , Patrick Munk
    •  & Frank M. Aarestrup

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Flaviviruses have emerged or re-emerged in several regions, but factors underlying emergence are incompletely understood. Here, Pandit et al. identify potential sylvatic reservoirs of flaviviruses and, in combination with vector distribution data, predict regions of global vulnerability.

    • Pranav S. Pandit
    • , Megan M. Doyle
    •  & Christine K. Johnson

  • Article
    | Open Access

    There is some evidence that social context can mediate the progression of cancers. Here, the authors show that Drosophila flies housed in social isolation experienced faster cancer tumor progression than flies in groups, and that flies select for social environments that minimize cancer risk.

    • Erika H. Dawson
    • , Tiphaine P. M. Bailly
    •  & Frederic Mery

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The disease dynamics of bovine tuberculosis have been of interest given the pathogen’s effect on wild animal and livestock health. Here, the authors show that a brief cessation of testing for bovine tuberculosis in 2001 altered the population synchrony of the disease dynamics across regions of Great Britain.

    • Aristides Moustakas
    • , Matthew R. Evans
    •  & Yannis Markonis

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Wolbachia infection in mosquitoes reduces dengue virus spread under specific lab conditions, prompting its use in disease control. Here, King et al. show that Wolbachia increases mean and variance in mosquito susceptibility and explain how this affects Wolbachia invasion and dengue transmission.

    • Jessica G. King
    • , Caetano Souto-Maior
    •  & M. Gabriela M. Gomes

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The authors examine the role of monkey populations in the sylvatic cycle of chikungunya virus in the Kédougou region, Senegal. The authors show that monkeys are amplification hosts, as opposed to reservoir hosts for infection. These findings expand our knowledge of the transmission dynamics of chikungunya virus in this region of Senegal.

    • Benjamin M. Althouse
    • , Mathilde Guerbois
    •  & Kathryn A. Hanley

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Agrochemicals can affect the life cycle of human parasites in unexpected ways. Here, Halstead et al. show in mesocosm experiments that agrochemicals increase the density of snails hosting schistosome parasites, and modeling analysis suggests this could lead to increased risk of human schistosomiasis.

    • Neal T. Halstead
    • , Christopher M. Hoover
    •  & Jason R. Rohr

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Human infections with Campylobacter fetus are often assumed to be derived from livestock. Here, Iraola et al. provide evidence that healthy humans may act as carriers and dispersers, and C. fetus may have originated in humans as an intestinal pathobiont and then adapted as a livestock pathogen.

    • Gregorio Iraola
    • , Samuel C. Forster
    •  & Trevor D. Lawley

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Monitoring of the spread of invasive mosquitos is important both for preventing and for understanding disease outbreaks. Here the author report that a scalable citizen science system can provide accurate early warning of the invasion process of the Asian tiger mosquito in Spain, with far more scalable coverage than that of traditional surveillance methods.

    • John R. B. Palmer
    • , Aitana Oltra
    •  & Frederic Bartumeus

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The risk of epidemics originating from wild animals demands close monitoring of emerging infectious disease (EID) events and their predictors. Here, the authors update a global database of EID events, analyze their environmental and biological correlates, and present a new global hotspot map of zoonotic EID risk.

    • Toph Allen
    • , Kris A. Murray
    •  & Peter Daszak

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Since its introduction to the US in 1999, the West Nile virus (WNV) has become endemic in the Americas. Here, the authors develop a model of WNV transmission dynamics between birds, mosquitoes and humans, which they integrate in conjunction with data assimilation methods, mosquito infection data and reported human cases in a New York county to show its utility for forecasting infection rates.

    • Nicholas B. DeFelice
    • , Eliza Little
    •  & Jeffrey Shaman

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Insect populations have fluctuated enormously over the past century, with many changes being attributed to anthropogenic climate change. Rochlinet al. show that the pesticide DDT and increasing urbanization are more strongly associated with changes in the number and diversity of mosquitoes on both coasts of North America.

    • Ilia Rochlin
    • , Ary Faraji
    •  & A. Marm Kilpatrick

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Environmental change is thought to have driven the recent emergence of Lyme disease in Europe. Using a decade of human disease incidence data across a large area in Norway, Mysterud et al.show that incidence correlates with deer population, but that deer population plays a limited role in recent disease emergence.

    • Atle Mysterud
    • , William Ryan Easterday
    •  & Hildegunn Viljugrein

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Wolbachia bacteria infect insects and could potentially be used to control populations of malaria-transmitting mosquitoes. Here, the authors provide evidence that natural Wolbachia infections affect the rate of egg laying and are associated with reduced presence of malaria parasites in Anophelesmosquitoes.

    • W. Robert Shaw
    • , Perrine Marcenac
    •  & Flaminia Catteruccia

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Co-infection of plants with multiple pathogen strains is predicted to alter disease dynamics. Here, Susi et al.use experimental and natural population data to show that co-infected host plants spread more disease and cause more devastating epidemics than singly infected hosts.

    • Hanna Susi
    • , Benoit Barrès
    •  & Anna-Liisa Laine

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