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Prediction of extreme floods in the eastern Central Andes based on a complex networks approach
Extreme rainfall events in the eastern Central Andes can result in substantial economic and ecological damage, yet their prediction is difficult. Here, the authors introduce the concept of network divergence and propose a general framework for the prediction of extreme events.
- N. Boers
- , B. Bookhagen
- & J. A. Marengo
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| Open AccessMissing driver in the Sun–Earth connection from energetic electron precipitation impacts mesospheric ozone
Energetic electron precipitation (EEP) from the Earth's outer radiation belt can lead to ozone loss in the mesosphere, yet long-term variability has not been quantified. Here, the authors present satellite observations and show that on solar cycle timescales EEP causes ozone to vary by up to 34%.
- M. E. Andersson
- , P. T. Verronen
- & A. Seppälä
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Long-term carbon loss in fragmented Neotropical forests
Tropical forest deforestation is a major source of CO2emissions, yet potential additional emissions through the creation of forest edge areas has been largely overlooked. Here, the authors combine remote sensing and knowledge on spatial processes to estimate carbon loss due to forest fragmentation.
- Sandro Pütz
- , Jürgen Groeneveld
- & Andreas Huth
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Antarctic contribution to meltwater pulse 1A from reduced Southern Ocean overturning
The Antarctic ice sheets contribution to rising sea levels at the end of the last ice age remains a matter of debate. Here, the authors present a suite of ice-sheet modelling experiments and conclude that the retreating Antarctic ice sheet may have contributed as much as 0.7 m per century to meltwater pulse 1A.
- N. R. Golledge
- , L. Menviel
- & R. H. Levy
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Sensitive response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to surface melt drainage over a soft bed
The delivery of meltwater to the base of the Greenland Ice Sheet has been shown to regulate ice flow, yet the role of soft basal sediment is unknown. Here, the authors use a three-dimensional ice sheet model to assess the impact of seasonal meltwater delivery on subglacial sediment shear strength and ice flow.
- M. Bougamont
- , P. Christoffersen
- & S. P. Carter
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Sea-level variability over five glacial cycles
Detailed sea-level records beyond ~150,000 years ago are limited. Here, the authors present a radiometrically constrained sea-level record from the Red Sea, spanning five glacial cycles and examine sea-level rise rates and the effects of past global ice-volume changes on monsoon intensity.
- K. M. Grant
- , E. J. Rohling
- & F. Williams
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How shorter black carbon lifetime alters its climate effect
Unlike most aerosols, black carbon absorbs solar radiation, potentially warming the atmosphere, yet its total climate effect remains uncertain. Here, the authors use a chemical transport and global circulation model to investigate the impact of black carbon emissions on global, annual mean radiative forcing.
- Øivind Hodnebrog
- , Gunnar Myhre
- & Bjørn H. Samset
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Persistence of pressure patterns over North America and the North Pacific since AD 1500
Synoptic-scale atmospheric pressure patterns control moisture delivery and thus drought occurrence across western North America, yet long-term records are lacking. Here, the authors use a novel combination of tree-ring data and self-organizing maps to reconstruct and analyse pressure patterns since AD 1500.
- Erika K. Wise
- & Matthew P. Dannenberg
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Validation of climate model-inferred regional temperature change for late-glacial Europe
Comparison of climate model hindcasts with proxy data is essential to improve model reliability, yet standardized palaeoclimate data sets are lacking. Here, Heiri et al. compare chironomid-based palaeotemperature records with the ECHAM-4 atmospheric general circulation model, showing excellent agreement.
- Oliver Heiri
- , Stephen J. Brooks
- & André F. Lotter
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Aridity threshold in controlling ecosystem nitrogen cycling in arid and semi-arid grasslands
Understanding the relationship between aridity and ecosystem N-cycling is important in predicting the effects of global climate change. Here, the authors present N isotopes across an aridity gradient and identify a tipping point, which marks a divergence in N-cycling controlling factors and mechanisms.
- Chao Wang
- , Xiaobo Wang
- & Edith Bai
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Weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex by Arctic sea-ice loss
The mechanism behind the severely cold winters experienced by the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere in recent years is not fully understood. Here, the authors combine observational analyses and model experiments to reveal a dynamic connection between Arctic sea-ice cover and the polar stratosphere.
- Baek-Min Kim
- , Seok-Woo Son
- & Jin-Ho Yoon
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Terrestrial selenium distribution in China is potentially linked to monsoonal climate
Selenium deficiency is a major health problem, particularly in the selenium-poor belt in China, yet its distribution in the terrestrial environment is poorly understood. Here, the authors combine geochemical and palaeoclimate data and show that selenium distribution in China may be related to East Asian monsoon rainfall.
- Tim Blazina
- , Youbin Sun
- & Lenny H.E. Winkel
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| Open AccessA Cenozoic-style scenario for the end-Ordovician glaciation
Claims that the end-Ordovician Earth was characterized by giant ice sheets, yet paradoxically warm oceans and elevated CO2 levels are open to debate. Here, Ghienne et al. examine sedimentary records from low and high palaeolatitude settings and propose a revision of the mechanisms for end-Ordovician events.
- Jean-François Ghienne
- , André Desrochers
- & Jan Veizer
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| Open AccessHolocene variations in peatland methane cycling associated with the Asian summer monsoon system
Although it has been widely suggested that the mid-Holocene minimum methane emissions are associated with hydrological change, direct evidence is missing. Here, the authors present evidence from the Tibetan Plateau using tracers of methanogenesis and methanotrophy, in combination with climate simulations.
- Yanhong Zheng
- , Joy S. Singarayer
- & Richard D. Pancost
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Formation of recent Pb-Ag-Au mineralization by potential sub-surface microbial activity
Studies suggest almost the same amount of biomass is present in subterranean settings as on Earth’s surface. Here, the authors propose that a large intraterrestrial microbial system was responsible for mineralization in southern Spain, and that microbes may play a major role in sub-surface ore-forming processes.
- Fernando Tornos
- , Francisco Velasco
- & Juan Manuel Escobar
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Southern Annular Mode-like changes in southwestern Patagonia at centennial timescales over the last three millennia
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) strongly impacts modern Southern Hemisphere climate, yet insight into its pre-industrial behaviour is lacking. Here, the authors present a high-resolution lake record and show that SAM variability coincided with major centennial-scale climate changes over the past 3,000 years.
- Patricio I. Moreno
- , I. Vilanova
- & R. De Pol-Holz
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Differentiating moss from higher plants is critical in studying the carbon cycle of the boreal biome
Satellite-derived indices used to estimate gross primary production and carbon cycling rarely differentiate between boreal mosses and vascular plants, despite differences in photosynthetic capacity. Here, the authors show that this may have led to an overestimation of the boreal carbon budget.
- Wenping Yuan
- , Shuguang Liu
- & Timo Vesala
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Natural snowfall reveals large-scale flow structures in the wake of a 2.5-MW wind turbine
Models of turbulent flows are often simulated in the laboratory, in sampling areas with dimensions <1 m. Here, the authors exploit a natural snowstorm to quantify turbulent flows, exploring the complex dynamics of the atmospheric boundary layer around a 2.5-MW utility-scale wind turbine.
- Jiarong Hong
- , Mostafa Toloui
- & Fotis Sotiropoulos
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Source identification of the Arctic sea ice proxy IP25
The organic geochemical biomarker IP25 has been widely applied in the reconstruction of Arctic sea ice, yet its source remains undetermined. Here, the authors report the identification of IP25in common pan-Arctic sea ice diatoms, thus establishing its applicability as a palaeo Arctic sea ice proxy.
- T. A. Brown
- , S. T. Belt
- & C. J. Mundy
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| Open AccessIntensification of the meridional temperature gradient in the Great Barrier Reef following the Last Glacial Maximum
The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is under threat from rising ocean temperatures, yet its response to past temperature change is poorly known. Felis et al. show that the GBR experienced a much steeper temperature gradient during the last deglaciation, suggesting it may be more resilient than previously thought.
- Thomas Felis
- , Helen V. McGregor
- & Jody M. Webster
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| Open AccessEvidence for global cooling in the Late Cretaceous
The Late Cretaceous experienced significant cooling, yet a lack of low-latitude records mean the regional extent of this cooling is poorly constrained. Linnert et al. present a TEX86sea surface temperature record from a palaeolatitude of ~35 °N and show that Late Cretaceous cooling was global in nature.
- Christian Linnert
- , Stuart A. Robinson
- & Ernest E. Russell
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Silicate deposition during decomposition of cyanobacteria may promote export of picophytoplankton to the deep ocean
The contribution of picophytoplankton to particle transport in the marine environment is relatively unknown. Here, the authors perform incubation experiments and show that decomposing picophytoplankton provides an efficient transport pathway for silica-enriched marine particles.
- Tiantian Tang
- , Kim Kisslinger
- & Cindy Lee
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Carbon storage and potential methane production in the Hudson Bay Lowlands since mid-Holocene peat initiation
Peatlands both store and emit potent greenhouse gases, yet their contribution to carbon dynamics during the past is poorly constrained. Here, Packalen et al.present new age constraints for peat development in the Hudson Bay Lowlands and quantify carbon storage and methane emissions during the Holocene.
- Maara S. Packalen
- , Sarah A. Finkelstein
- & James W. McLaughlin
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| Open AccessEnhanced role of eddies in the Arctic marine biological pump
Arctic sea ice has been in rapid decline in recent decades, yet the impact on biogeochemical cycling is unknown due to insufficient sampling. Watanabe et al.combine year-long mooring observations with numerical models to show that an eddy-induced biological pump would be enhanced by sea ice retreat.
- Eiji Watanabe
- , Jonaotaro Onodera
- & Michio J. Kishi
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| Open AccessDirect contribution of the seagrass Thalassia testudinum to lime mud production
Seagrass beds are effective blue-carbon sinks, yet their role as a lime mud source in the tropical carbonate factory is less well known. Here, the authors demonstrate that the species Thalassia testudinumcan significantly contribute to carbonate production via the precipitation of aragonite needles.
- Susana Enríquez
- & Nadine Schubert
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| Open AccessIce sheets as a significant source of highly reactive nanoparticulate iron to the oceans
Glacial meltwaters may help fertilize the iron-limited Polar Oceans, yet the contribution is poorly constrained. Hawkings et al.monitor iron fluxes during a full-melt season in Greenland, and propose that ice sheets provide highly reactive and potentially bioavailable iron, comparable with aeolian dust fluxes.
- Jon R. Hawkings
- , Jemma L. Wadham
- & Jon Telling
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Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the global yields of major crops
El Niño Southern Oscillation affects seasonal climate worldwide; however, it is uncertain how it impacts global crop yields. Here, the authors present a global assessment of the impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on crop productivity and show large differences among regions, crop types and cropping technologies.
- Toshichika Iizumi
- , Jing-Jia Luo
- & Toshio Yamagata
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Reactive nitrogen requirements to feed the world in 2050 and potential to mitigate nitrogen pollution
As global population and food demand rises, it is increasingly unclear how reactive nitrogen pollution will be mitigated. Bodirsky et al.run a series of model simulations and show that even under ambitious mitigation, reactive nitrogen pollution is likely to exceed critical environmental thresholds in the year 2050.
- Benjamin Leon Bodirsky
- , Alexander Popp
- & Miodrag Stevanovic
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Two-stroke scooters are a dominant source of air pollution in many cities
Primary and secondary organic aerosols emitted by road vehicles are hazardous to health and climate, with diesel trucks and cars considered the main offenders. Platt et al.show that, despite constituting a small fraction of the fleet, two-stroke scooters can dominate vehicular pollution in some cities.
- S.M. Platt
- , I.El. Haddad
- & A.S.H. Prévôt
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| Open AccessThe effectiveness of coral reefs for coastal hazard risk reduction and adaptation
The risks of flooding to coastal communities are increasing due to coastal development and climate change. Here, the authors use meta-analyses to quantitatively show that coral reefs can significantly reduce risks from natural hazards, and that reef defences can be enhanced cost effectively.
- Filippo Ferrario
- , Michael W. Beck
- & Laura Airoldi
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Inner gorges cut by subglacial meltwater during Fennoscandian ice sheet decay
Whether the origins of inner gorges were fluvial or subglacial has been debated for decades. Here, Jansen et al. present new evidence, in the form of a suite of cosmogenic nuclide exposure ages and a deglaciation map, which suggests a subglacial meltwater origin for inner gorges in northern Sweden.
- J.D. Jansen
- , A.T. Codilean
- & S. Xu
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Plasma irregularities in the D-region ionosphere in association with sprite streamer initiation
Sprites are spectacular optical emissions in the mesosphere with an enigmatic filamentary nature. Qin et al.present high-speed video and modelling data revealing sub-millisecond dynamics to reconstruct the structures on a km-scale, showing that pre-existing plasma irregularities are responsible for their initiation.
- Jianqi Qin
- , Victor P. Pasko
- & Hans C. Stenbaek-Nielsen
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| Open AccessArctic tree rings as recorders of variations in light availability
Tree rings are widely used to reconstruct historical records of surface temperature. Here, Stine and Huybers analyse tree-ring records north of 50°N and show that changes in the light environment associated with both volcanic eruptions and global dimming significantly influence tree-ring growth.
- A. R. Stine
- & P. Huybers
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| Open AccessMadden–Julian Oscillation prediction skill of a new-generation global model demonstrated using a supercomputer
Prediction of the Madden–Julian Oscillation using complex cloud-resolving models has been limited by computational power. Here, Miyakawa et al.run a series of simulations using the newly developed 10 peta-flop ‘K computer’ and demonstrate a Madden–Julian Oscillation predictive window of 27 days.
- Tomoki Miyakawa
- , Masaki Satoh
- & Kunio Yoneyama
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Chemodiversity of dissolved organic matter in lakes driven by climate and hydrology
Lakes play an important role in the global carbon cycle and understanding their organic matter cycling is vital. Kellerman et al.apply an ultrahigh-resolution technique to 120 lakes across Sweden and show that the molecular composition is shaped by water dynamics and temperature.
- Anne M. Kellerman
- , Thorsten Dittmar
- & Lars J. Tranvik
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Orbital control of western North America atmospheric circulation and climate over two glacial cycles
A palaeoclimate record from Devils Hole, North America, has long called into question the theory of orbital-scale climate variability. Lachniet et al.present a new, well-dated, speleothem record and reveal evidence for strong orbital forcing of palaeoclimate in this region for at least the past 175 kyrs.
- Matthew S. Lachniet
- , Rhawn F. Denniston
- & Victor J. Polyak
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| Open AccessSiple Dome ice reveals two modes of millennial CO2 change during the last ice age
Whether all rapid climate events during the last ice age impacted the global carbon cycle is not clearly understood. Ahn and Brook present a high-resolution record of atmospheric CO2 from Antarctica and suggest that only Greenland stadials associated with massive iceberg discharge influenced atmospheric CO2.
- Jinho Ahn
- & Edward J. Brook
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| Open AccessMarine ice regulates the future stability of a large Antarctic ice shelf
Signs of instability in the Antarctic Larsen C ice shelf have raised concerns that it might soon collapse like its northern neighbour Larsen B. Kulessa et al.combine an ice-shelf model with satellite and geophysical data to show that despite dynamic similarities, Larsen C is presently stabilized by marine ice.
- Bernd Kulessa
- , Daniela Jansen
- & Peter R. Sammonds
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| Open AccessOn the fate of pumice rafts formed during the 2012 Havre submarine eruption
Pumice rafts result from volcanic eruptions into and onto water, and can be extensive and potentially hazardous, but tracking their dispersal is difficult. Jutzeler et al.combine satellite imagery and an ocean model to accurately forecast pumice raft dispersal routes.
- Martin Jutzeler
- , Robert Marsh
- & Leif Karlstrom
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Paired oxygen isotope records reveal modern North American atmospheric dynamics during the Holocene
The Pacific North American teleconnection strongly influences modern climate in North America, yet long-term variability remains unknown. Liu et al.reconstruct precipitation histories from palaeoisotope proxy records and identify modern atmospheric patterns during the Holocene.
- Zhongfang Liu
- , Kei Yoshimura
- & Fasong Yuan
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| Open AccessTimescales for detecting a significant acceleration in sea level rise
Global sea levels are rising as a result of climate change, but at what rate, and whether this rate is increasing is open to debate. Haigh et al.show that the earliest detection of significant increase in the rate of sea level rise can only be achieved once interannual and multidecadal variability is removed.
- Ivan D. Haigh
- , Thomas Wahl
- & Sönke Dangendorf
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| Open AccessCorals record long-term Leeuwin current variability including Ningaloo Niño/Niña since 1795
El Niño Southern Oscillation has a strong impact on current strength and ocean temperatures off the western Australian coast, but long-term variability is poorly understood. Zinke et al.show a strong link between La Niña and El Niño events and decadal Leeuwin current variability in coral records since 1795.
- J. Zinke
- , A. Rountrey
- & M.T. McCulloch
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Fossil pollen records indicate that Patagonian desertification was not solely a consequence of Andean uplift
It is postulated that the Patagonian steppe evolved purely as a consequence of Andean uplift 15 million years ago, yet direct evidence is lacking. Palazzesi et al.present a bioclimatic analysis of pollen assemblages and show that Patagonian desertification began much more recently than previously thought.
- L. Palazzesi
- , V.D. Barreda
- & R. Ventura Santos
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| Open AccessSize and frequency of natural forest disturbances and the Amazon forest carbon balance
The world’s tropical forests represent a terrestrial carbon sink, yet its size is uncertain. Espírito-Santo et al.characterize full Amazon disturbances combining forest inventories and remote sensing data, and use statistical modelling to quantify the Amazon aboveground forest carbon balance.
- Fernando D.B. Espírito-Santo
- , Manuel Gloor
- & Oliver L. Phillips
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| Open AccessEvidence for external forcing of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation since termination of the Little Ice Age
The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation strongly influences Northern Hemisphere climate, yet its primary driver is poorly understood. Knudsen et al.analyse proxy records from the past ~450 years and show that external forcing has dominated control of the oscillation since the termination of the Little Ice Age.
- Mads Faurschou Knudsen
- , Bo Holm Jacobsen
- & Jesper Olsen
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| Open AccessThe dynamic surface tension of atmospheric aerosol surfactants reveals new aspects of cloud activation
The formation of cloud droplets from aerosol particles in the atmosphere is difficult to comprehend experimentally and theoretically. Here, the authors measure the dynamic surface tension of atmospheric aerosols and evidence previously overlooked processes, likely to improve this understanding.
- Barbara Nozière
- , Christine Baduel
- & Jean-Luc Jaffrezo
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| Open AccessPotential climate engineering effectiveness and side effects during a high carbon dioxide-emission scenario
The effectiveness of climate engineering in averting potentially catastrophic climate change has thus far been poorly evaluated. Keller et al. use an Earth system model to show that five different climate engineering scenarios are likely to have either a limited impact or potentially severe side effects.
- David P. Keller
- , Ellias Y. Feng
- & Andreas Oschlies
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Global heat and salt transports by eddy movement
Modelling studies suggest that oceanic mesoscale eddies play an important role in the global transport of heat and salt, yet there are few direct observations. Dong et al.present a method to calculate eddy transport through the use of satellite data and Argo profiles and confirm model-based estimates.
- Changming Dong
- , James C. McWilliams
- & Dake Chen
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Discovery of a novel methanogen prevalent in thawing permafrost
The microbes responsible for releasing the potent greenhouse gas methane from thawing permafrost remain largely unknown. Mondav and Woodcroft et al. investigate methane flux across a thaw gradient in Sweden and recover a near-complete genome of the dominant methanogen Candidatus ‘Methanoflorens stordalenmirensis’.
- Rhiannon Mondav
- , Ben J. Woodcroft
- & Gene W. Tyson