Research articles

There are large uncertainties in wind-wave climate projections that need to be resolved to allow adaptation planning. A multi-method ensemble of global wave climate projections shows robust changes in wave height, period and direction that put 50% of the global coast at risk.

Two independent methods, applied to observations and climate models, suggest that changes in atmospheric circulation drive cold winters in mid-latitudes and coincident mild Arctic winters. Reduced Arctic sea ice causes Arctic warming but has minimal influence on the severity of mid-latitude winters.

Satellite altimetry shows global mean sea-level rise acceleration; however, sparse tide-gauge data limit understanding of the longer-term trend. A hybrid method of reconstruction for 1900–2015 shows acceleration since the 1960s, linked to increases and shifts in Southern Hemisphere westerly winds.

Highly mobile taxa, like birds, occupy ecosystems that lack fixed boundaries, and tracking how these spatial regimes respond to environmental change is difficult. Avian route data show the spatial regimes of Great Plains bird communities have shifted poleward and reorganized over the past 46 years.

Climate threats to iconic places may arouse public concern and protective sentiment. This study shows that mass coral bleaching influenced sentiments, threat perceptions and values associated with the Great Barrier Reef and climate change attitudes in Australian and international tourists.

The combined impacts of climate change and deforestation are estimated to reduce Amazon tree species richness by up to 58% by 2050, whilst deforestation alone may cause 19–36%, and climate change alone 31–37%.

Non-human primates deliver ecological processes to tropical ecosystems. In this study, a trait-based approach is used to assess the vulnerability of 607 primate taxa to cyclones and droughts, extreme climatic events that are expected to increase or intensify in the coming decades.

Achieving the Paris Agreement goals may require complementary institutions such as climate clubs. Enhanced technological diffusion and the provision of low-cost climate finance are shown to support the creation of climate coalitions.

Calcifying marine species are threatened by ocean acidification. A year-long study of calcifying fluid chemistry shows that reef species, both corals and calcifying macroalgal species, were not able to adapt to ocean acidification.

Political interests play a key role in the passage of climate policy. This study quantifies that political lobbying reduced the probability of enacting the Waxman–Markey bill in the United States by 13 percentage points, representing US$60 billion in expected climate damages.

Behavioural interventions aimed at curbing carbon emissions are inexpensive and easy to implement but can offer the false promise of a quick fix. Across six experiments, the authors show that exposure to a green energy nudge diminishes support for carbon taxes.

Interdecadal modulations in the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) influence North American winter temperatures. An eastward shift of the NPO in recent decades has increased its influence, resulting in more extremes, depending on the NPO phase.

The benefits of using natural gas as a bridge fuel are often called into question. A coal-to-gas shift in China, Germany, India and the United States is broadly consistent with climate stabilization goals in the Paris Agreement, except when metrics emphasizing very short-term outcomes are used.

Spaceborne thermal observation is used to monitor discrete phenophases of forest understory plants in near-real time and the thermal relationship is used to project phenological changes under future climates.

In this Article, modelling results from a consistent set of sectoral climate change impact models, covering 22 impact sectors of the United States, are summarized. Findings are complex, but largely negative and expensive.

The Pacific Walker circulation is predicted to weaken, however, observations suggest a current strengthening. Satellite humidity observations show a weaker response than reanalyses; coupled with model simulations, this suggests that internal variability dominates recent strengthening.

Climate change has the potential to profoundly affect Arctic transportation systems. Here, Indigenous knowledge and climate data are integrated to model changing trail access for Canada’s Inuit communities over the past 30 years

Decision-making structures in forest-user communities often exclude women. This lab-in-field experiment shows that groups in which at least 50% of members were women conserved more trees, and distributed benefits more equally, in a payment for ecosystem services intervention.

Climate change mitigation requires cooperation among nations, which could be undermined if a major emitter defects from international agreements. This study shows that public support for global climate policies is unaffected by information on other countries failing to reduce their emissions.

Accurate emissions data are required to monitor progress towards climate goals. Firms’ self-reported emissions show convergence with independently verified emissions in two pilot emissions trading systems in China over several years, suggesting the effectiveness of oversight and third-party audits.