Research articles

The ratio of plant transpiration to total terrestrial evapotranspiration (T/ET) captures the role of vegetation in surface–atmosphere interactions. An emergent constraint approach strongly increases existing model T/ET estimates with implications for river flows.

Residual CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels limit the likelihood of meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement. A sector-level assessment of residual emissions using an ensemble of IAMs indicates that 640–950 GtCO₂ removal will be required to constrain warming to 1.5 °C.

The northern Barents Sea has warmed rapidly in recent decades. Hydrographic observations suggest increases in ocean temperature—particularly after the mid-2000s—can be linked to reduced sea-ice import, freshwater loss, weakened stratification and increased upward heat fluxes from the deep Atlantic layer.

Combining saline water electrolysis with mineral weathering powered by non-fossil electricity could produce low-cost, negative-CO₂-emissions energy.

Editorials in multi-disciplinary journals can influence professional scientists and wider public discourse. This study compares how editorials on climate change in Nature and Science have changed over time and in response to wider political events

A global model that incorporates information about coastal environmental settings indicates that mangrove soil organic carbon stocks have been significantly underestimated in carbonate settings, and overestimated in deltaic coastlines.

Tree transpiration in the Amazon enhances downwind rainfall. Research now shows that approximately one-third of Amazon rainfall originates within its own basin, with the southern half of the basin contributing most to this effect.

Tourism is a significant contributor to the global economy, with potentially large environmental impacts. Origin and destination accounting perspectives are used to provide a comprehensive assessment of global tourism’s carbon footprint.

This study shows that relationships between climate scepticism and indices of conspirational and conservative ideology are stronger and more consistent in the United States than in 24 other nations, with the majority of nations showing weak relationships.

The effects of projected ocean acidification on primary productivity of the Arctic and subarctic shelf seas are found to be minimal, with the phytoplankton communities showing a high capacity to compensate for environmental change.

Increasing zonal asymmetry in tropical precipitation is projected by 2100, with increases over Asian and African forests and decreases over South American forests. Plant physiological responses to increasing CO₂ are now identified as a primary driving mechanism.

The co-benefits of carbon pricing in China are investigated by a cross-scale modelling approach. The health benefits from reduced emissions and improved air quality could offset the climate policy costs.

California recently experienced a rapid shift from multi-year drought to abundant rainfall. A large ensemble of climate model simulations suggests that the frequency of extreme wet-to-dry precipitation events will increase by 25% to 100% across California due to anthropogenic forcing.

Severe drought plagued Europe in 2003, amplifying heatwave conditions that killed more than 30,000 people. Assuming business as usual, such soil moisture deficits will become twice as frequent in the future and affect up to two-thirds of the European population.

Scenarios that constrain warming to 1.5 °C currently place a large emphasis on CO₂ removal. Alternative pathways involving lifestyle change, rapid electrification and reduction of non-CO₂ gases could reduce the need for such negative emission technologies.

Arctic sea ice cover has declined significantly in recent years. Model simulations suggest the probability of an ice-free Arctic will be 100% under 2 °C, but 30% under 1.5 °C, motivating efforts to constrain anthropogenic warming.

Nations are currently pursuing efforts to constrain anthropogenic warming to 1.5 °C. In such a world, model projections suggest the Arctic will be ice-free every one in forty years, compared to one in every five under stabilized 2 °C warming.

Fisheries generated a total of 179 million tonnes of CO₂-equivalent GHG emissions in 2011 (4% of global food production). Emissions grew by 28% between 1990 and 2011, primarily driven by increased harvests from fuel-intensive crustacean fisheries.

While well-known for its temperature targets, the Paris Agreement also aims for net zero GHG emissions. IAM results reveal net zero GHG emissions are not always required to meet the temperature targets, and that net zero CO₂ emissions are a more suitable aim.

Marine ecosystems and their stored carbon are threatened by warming and marine heatwaves. During a 2010–2011 heatwave, around a third of a Western Australian seagrass ecosystem suffered damage, potentially releasing 2–9 Tg CO₂ in the following years.