Commentary in 2016

Political upsets could stall coordinated international mitigation action, but emissions and investments over the next few years will have long-term consequences. Any delays to mitigation or cuts to renewable energy research by the US will likely render the 2 °C target unachievable if a global precedent is set.

An end-to-end comprehensive climate information system is needed to complement mitigation and adaptation as responses to the threat of human-induced climate change.

Cities are becoming increasingly important in combatting climate change, but their overall role in global solution pathways remains unclear. Here we suggest structuring urban climate solutions along the use of existing and newly built infrastructures, providing estimates of the mitigation potential.

To catalyse climate transformation, we need leadership everywhere. It is time for more of us to take the first steps to lead actively.

Avoiding losses from climate change requires socially engaged research that explains what people value highly, how climate change imperils these phenomena, and strategies for embracing and managing grief.

Earth's surface gained 115,000 km² of water and 173,000 km² of land over the past 30 years, including 20,135 km² of water and 33,700 km² of land in coastal areas. Here, we analyse the gains and losses through the Deltares Aqua Monitor — an open tool that detects land and water changes around the globe.

Understanding how the overall risks of extreme events are changing in a warming world requires both a thermodynamic perspective and an understanding of changes in the atmospheric circulation.

The impacts of climate change imply a reconceptualization of environment-related criminality. Criminology can offer insight into the definitions and dynamics of this behaviour, and outline potential areas of redress.

The success of the Paris Agreement relies on a system of 'pledge and review', and the power of shaming laggards. This puts much of the burden for holding countries accountable on civil society.

Indonesian peatlands need to be protected and restored to prevent fires and the health, environmental and economic impact that they have on the wider region.

The Paris Agreement duly reflects the latest scientific understanding of systemic global warming risks. Limiting the anthropogenic temperature anomaly to 1.5–2 °C is possible, yet requires transformational change across the board of modernity.

The recent El Niño event has elevated the rise in CO₂ concentration this year. Here, using emissions, sea surface temperature data and a climate model, we forecast that the CO₂ concentration at Mauna Loa will for the first time remain above 400 ppm all year, and hence for our lifetimes.

The academic community could make rapid progress on quantifying the impacts of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, but a refocusing of research priorities is needed in order to provide reliable advice.

In the aftermath of COP21, potential post-2030 emission trajectories and their consistency with the 2 °C target are a core concern for the ocean scientific community in light of the end-century risks of impact scenarios.

The value of the social sciences to climate change research is well recognized, but notable gaps remain in the literature on adaptation in agriculture. Contributions focus on farmer behaviour, with important research regarding gender, social networks and institutions remaining under-represented.

An IPCC Special Report on 1.5 °C should focus on resolving fundamental scientific and political uncertainties, not fixate on developing unachievable mitigation pathways.

Insurance is gaining importance in and beyond the climate negotiations and offers many opportunities to improve climate risk management in developing countries. However, some caution is needed, if current momentum is to lead to genuine progress in making the most vulnerable more resilient to climate change.

It has been claimed that the early-2000s global warming slowdown or hiatus, characterized by a reduced rate of global surface warming, has been overstated, lacks sound scientific basis, or is unsupported by observations. The evidence presented here contradicts these claims.

Insights about climate are being uncovered thanks to improved capacities to observe ocean salinity, an essential climate variable. However, cracks are beginning to appear in the ocean observing system that require prompt attention if we are to maintain the existing, hard-won capacity into the near future.

The Paris Agreement contains an ambition to limit global warming to no more than 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, changing the context for policy-relevant research and extending a challenge to the IPCC and researchers.