Articles in 2023

Warming temperatures associated with climate change are expected to impact soil carbon stocks, yet the effect of more frequent and intense extreme climate events on soil carbon is yet unclear. This study shows that most extremes enhance soil carbon loss globally, with variation across ecosystems.

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a key feature of tropical weather on a multi-weekly timescale. Here, the authors show that the MJO becomes more predictable with climate change, potentially allowing better subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasting.

The authors use experimental data from 332 sites across all major global biomes to evaluate the drivers of soil microbial respiration response to warming. They demonstrate a key role of the soil microbiome, highlighting the need to account for this in assessments of soil respiration under change.

It has been suggested that Antarctic ice sheets can become unstable and undergo irreversible retreat, but so far observational evidence for this mechanism is missing. Here, the authors show evidence that such an irreversible retreat occurred at Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica in the 1970s.

Climate change is expected to strengthen atmospheric jet streams. Here the authors show that the fastest upper-level jet stream winds accelerate about 2.5 times faster under climate change than average winds, which could influence aviation and severe weather events.

Negative emissions technologies at scale are seen as essential for the overall decarbonization effort to achieve the Paris Agreement targets. However, private ownership of these technologies could largely increase regional or international inequality by financing them through carbon markets.

The authors incorporate terrestrial biosphere models with ecological optimality theory, remote sensing and global carbon budget estimates to constrain the historical effects of CO₂ on photosynthesis. They show that CO₂ fertilization likely increased global photosynthesis by 13.5% between 1981 and 2020.

Forest restoration is emerging as a key climate mitigation strategy. In this study, the authors find that formalized local control and substantive involvement in rule-making are associated with synergies for carbon sequestration, biodiversity and rural livelihoods.

The impact of climate change on soil carbon remains uncertain. This study shows that soil carbon in forests increases in response to elevated CO₂, but the response to warming and nitrogen deposition depends on mycorrhizal associations, indicating a trade-off between soil and plant carbon.

Climate change is a major human rights challenge. This research shows how climate change is impeding the human rights of Ni-Vanuatu, outlines what can be done in response, and discusses how the future loss and damage fund should consider human rights restoration and compensation packages.

Non-tornadic thunderstorm winds are associated with particularly strong damages. Here, the author assesses changes in these winds in the central USA and shows that they have intensified stronger than other extreme winds over the past decades, while the affected area increased 4.8-fold.

The low-carbon transition would bring both challenges and opportunities for the labour market, which have important implications for a just transition. In the US power system, the lowest-skilled workers in fossil fuel-dependent states will face more uncertain employment and job training will be necessary.

The remaining carbon budget (RCB) is a critical estimate of the carbon that can be emitted while staying within a particular temperature threshold. This study provides an updated assessment of the RCB using recent data and robustness checks to increase confidence in the estimate.

The authors use fisheries databases and predictive models to understand past and future changes in the availability of iron, calcium omega-3 and protein from seafood. They show disproportional loss of nutrients in tropical low-income countries, which will be exacerbated by higher levels of global warming.

The authors use a regional ocean model to project ocean-driven ice-shelf melt in the Amundsen Sea. Already committed rapid ocean warming drives increased melt, regardless of emission scenario, suggesting extensive ice loss from West Antarctica.

Wildfire can lead to shifts in forest composition to more deciduous tree cover, which can have a biophysical cooling effect on climate. This study finds no net increase in deciduous cover or biophysical cooling over boreal North America in recent decades, despite widespread landscape scale change.

Assessing adaptation progress is key to reducing risk associated with climate change, yet the status of adaptation in most sectors is unclear. This study assesses the state of coastal adaptation globally and finds that current efforts fulfil about half of the total potential.

Projections of ocean heat transport show a decrease which is driven by a decline in overturning circulation. Such a decrease in ocean heat transport can dampen the global warming signal in Northwest Europe.

Protest plays an essential role in promoting climate actions, yet individual participation decisions are influenced by expectations about other people’s attendance. This study displays evidence on strategic substitutability, that is, respondents are less motivated if they expect high turnout.

Autonomous sampling enables increased data collection in the ocean to understand circulation and water property changes. This study uses data from underwater gliders and profiling floats to show a shoreward lateral shift in Gulf Stream waters, which have warmed and become lighter since 2001.