Articles in 2023

Fire impacts soil organic carbon stocks, in addition to aboveground biomass, yet changes are not well constrained. This study shows that more soil carbon is lost from drier ecosystems than humid ones and that the carbon sink is increasing in savannah–grassland regions with declining burned area.

Changes in air temperature are usually considered for quantifying changes in temperature extremes such as heatwaves. This study shows that the incidence of heat extremes in soils is increasing faster than air temperature in some regions, with implications for hydrological and biogeochemical processes.

The decarbonization of the global iron and steel industry is important for energy systems mitigation. Using a facility-level database, this Article presents cost-effective, region-specific strategies targeting plants with a large age-to-capacity ratio and/or high emissions intensity.

Recent decades have seen the increasing frequency of multiyear La Niña events. Here the authors find that there are two different types of multiyear La Niña that are each linked to different mechanisms related to warming in the western equatorial Pacific.

The authors estimate the intensity, duration and number of global marine heatwaves from 1993 to 2019, from the surface to 2,000 m. They show generally higher intensity of marine heatwaves at 50–200 m, but increased duration with depth, and predict ocean regions of higher biodiversity exposure.

Warming waters in a changing climate have led to declining oxygen levels in oceans and lakes; the impact on rivers has been less clear. This study shows that widespread deoxygenation in rivers in the United States and Central Europe may accelerate under climate change and influence water quality.

The effect of global warming on Antarctic temperatures is difficult to quantify, due to short weather observations and large internal variability. Here the authors use ice cores to identify polar amplification that results in warming in Antarctica larger than the internal variability.

The authors analyse tree responses to an extreme heat and drought event across South America to understand long-term climate resistance. While no more sensitive to this than previous lesser events, forests in drier climates showed the greatest impacts and thus vulnerability to climate extremes.

The Arctic is estimated to be a source of atmospheric methane but the sink capacity may be underestimated. This study shows that methane uptake in well-drained Arctic soils is driven by soil moisture and carbon availability, indicating a potential increased methane sink under climate change.

Using 25 years of satellite chlorophyll a data, the authors demonstrate significant and widespread changes in the amplitude, timing, duration and seasonality of Southern Ocean phytoplankton blooms. Such changes threaten ecosystem services and can impact global climate by altering natural CO₂ uptake.

Climate change poses a substantial challenge to ski tourism due to the strong reductions in snow cover in many mountain regions. Here, the authors assess the risks to ski resorts in 28 European countries and the potential water demand and emissions associated with snowmaking.

The authors used an autonomous biophysical observatory to estimate the light intensity triggering seasonal zooplankton vertical migration under Arctic sea ice. Considering this trigger, they project future reductions in time spent in the under-ice habitat, with implications for Arctic ecosystems.

Cloud droplet number concentrations are often assumed to depend linearly on atmospheric aerosols (in log–log space). Here the authors show that this relationship is instead sigmoid, which delays additional warming due to air pollution mitigation by 20–30 years in heavily polluted regions.

Verification of reported fossil fuel emissions is critical for tracking the progress of the Paris Agreement. Here, a simple model suggests the stability of the sensitivity of net carbon exchange to climate and carbon dioxide forcing and validates reported global emissions with improved accuracy.

The authors define the time of emergence—the time at which climate change signals emerge from the noise of ecosystem variability—for the great tit Parus major. They show that the time of emergence differs across levels, occurring earlier at the population level rather than at the trait or vital rate levels.

Fossil fuel companies need to align their activities with the climate goals and reduce their production rapidly. This research based on an updated methodology shows that these companies would produce more than their cumulative production budgets by 2050 if the recent trend continues.

The authors use niche modelling and landscape genetic approaches to understand population-level climate change vulnerability for three alpine species. Their approach reveals similar population-level vulnerability for the studied keystone species and its two beneficiary species.

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is expected to collapse with warming. Here the authors assess whether solar geoengineering could prevent such a collapse and find that this would be possible only with early deployment under low and medium emissions, highlighting the need for emissions mitigation.

The biocontrol technology (wMel) used to mitigate mosquito-borne viruses is adversely affected by heat stress. The authors integrate empirical data on mosquito population dynamics and wMel thermal sensitivity to show that the technology is generally robust to near-term climate change.

Changes in tree cover can change surface temperatures in multiple ways. Here, the authors show an asymmetric direct biophysical effect of tree cover change, as the cooling due to tree cover gain is greater in magnitude than the warming from tree cover loss in most forests.