Articles in 2022

The authors investigate the mechanism underlying the multigenerational resilience of a copepod to ocean acidification. They demonstrate that recovery of negative reproductive impacts is linked to epigenetic changes and highlight the need to consider plasticity in estimating future vulnerabilities.

Anthropogenic changes in ocean eddies are difficult to distinguish from natural variability due to short satellite records. Here model projections show a poleward shift and intensification of eddy kinetic energy in most eddy-rich regions; however, Gulf Stream eddy activity decreases.

Observed warming of the Southern Hemisphere western boundary currents (WBCs) is still under debate. Here poleward shifts, associated with changes in the mid-latitude easterly winds, of the WBCs, not strengthening, are found to drive enhanced eddy generation and ocean warming in their extensions.

The authors use daily data to understand current thermal conditions across ocean depths and project changes under various future scenarios. They show varying responses in thermal range shifts on the basis of depth, highlighting complexities in predicting marine life habitat under global change.

The authors compile an underwater sonar database to understand the current and future distribution of pelagic fauna in the world’s oceans. They show loss of 3–22% of these fauna in low and mid latitudes under high-emissions scenarios, with impact reduced to less than half if global warming is contained below 2 °C.

Assessing 3,129 species of trees and shrubs found in 164 global urban areas shows that over half of the species currently experience non-ideal climates. They project increases in risk due to climate change by 2050 and highlight cities where all species are at risk.

The authors use long-term ground and satellite data to reveal the impact of drought on autumn date of foliar senescence (DFS). They link increased drought impacts to precipitation changes and plant functional traits and project earlier DFS by the end of the century, particularly at high latitudes.

The Atlantic Niño is an important mode of tropical climate variability, but how it reacts to climate change is not well known due to model biases. Here the authors show a robust weakening of the Atlantic Niño of up to 24–48% under high emissions until the end of the century.

The Atlantic Niño/Niña is an important mode of tropical climate variability, but how it changes with global warming is not clear. Here the authors use a comprehensive model ensemble to show that the Atlantic Niño/Niña system will probably weaken under greenhouse warming.

The success of international climate cooperation relies on whether national commitments are believable under the Paris Agreement. Based on the survey with experienced climate policy professionals, the authors explore the determinants of credibility of national commitments.

For some parts of the climate system, the response to declining CO₂ concentrations does not mirror that during the preceding increase. Here the authors quantify this effect for temperature and precipitation, and show that large areas of the world show an asymmetric response to CO₂ forcing.

The authors reveal the complex interplay of factors influencing climate-related body-size changes in tree swallows. Nest warming increased chick size and success yet adult structural size decreased, and mass of males decreased but females did not, the latter linked to reproduction trade-offs.

The Arctic lowlands are characterized by a large number of lakes that cover a substantial part of the surface in some regions. Here, the authors apply a machine learning approach to satellite data to show that permafrost thaw since 2000 has caused a decline in surface water in these regions.

Greenland ice sheet melt is currently the largest single contributor to sea-level rise. This work combines observations and theory to show that Greenland ice sheet imbalance with recent climate (2000–2019) has already committed at least 3.3% ice volume loss, equivalent to 274 mm of global sea-level rise.

The authors develop a climate risk index for marine species under two emission scenarios and find that exploited species in low-income countries have the greatest risk under the high emissions scenario. Mitigating emissions reduces risks, enhances ecosystem stability and benefits low-income countries that depend on fisheries.

Managing natural systems to mitigation climate change is a key strategy for limiting warming. In China, such natural climate solutions could offset 6% of CO₂ emissions during 2020–2030, contributing to mitigation goals but highlighting the importance of emissions reductions.

The Atlantic intertropical convergence zone can experience extreme northward shifts, with resultant precipitation changes. Model projections show the frequency of these extreme shifts will increase under climate change, driven by faster sea surface warming north of the Equator.

The Tibetan Plateau is an important source region of freshwater for large parts of Asia’s population. Here the authors quantify past and future terrestrial water-storage changes and find a large net loss in this region, with the Amu Darya and Indus basins as the most vulnerable hotspots.

The author investigates reproductive tradeoffs and contemporary selection of ocean acidification for a common coastal fish. Larvae are highly sensitive to acidification, with lower mortality for larger larvae, but effects are partially offset by tradeoffs between offspring size and number.

Phytoplankton vertical migration has a role in nutrient pumping and primary productivity in the oceans. Here the authors quantify the total amount of oceanic net primary productivity facilitated by this bio-pumping, under present and future warming conditions.