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Heat waves have become increasingly frequent in the United States, but their occurrence is largely linked to natural variability. Model simulations reveal anthropogenically forced signals will first emerge in the western United States and Great Lakes regions by ~2030.
Scenarios that constrain end-of-century radiative forcing to 1.9 W m–2, and thus global mean temperature increases to below 1.5 °C, are explored. Effective scenarios reduce energy use, deploy CO2 removal measures, and shift to non-emitting energy sources.
Large-scale sea-level rise is primarily dominated by thermal expansion and ice melt. However, wave processes are found to significantly influence local sea-level trends at the coast, amplifying or reducing steric and eustatic contributions.
Annual mangrove carbon stocks are quantified (2000–2012) at global, national and sub-national levels, together with global carbon emissions resulting from deforestation. Two percent of global mangrove carbon was lost between 2000 and 2012.
Ecological niche modelling of king penguins in the Southern Ocean, validated with population genomics and palaeodemography data, is used to reconstruct past range shifts and identify future vulnerable areas and potential refugia under climate change.
Models of the distribution of North American mammals show that estimated future diversity under climate change is drastically underestimated unless the full historical distribution of species is included in the models.
In comparison to conventional bonds, green bonds have been penalized on the municipal market. However, in recent years the credit quality of green bonds has improved, and they now represent an increasingly feasible option to unlock climate finance.
A spatially extensive survey of lake CH4 and CO2 emissions in Arctic Alaska shows the source material to be primarily relatively young organic matter (up to about 3,500 years old). Contributions from ancient C sources were twice as large in fine textured sediments.
Human behaviour is an important driver of emissions. A system-dynamics model that couples a psychological model of behaviour with a model of emissions and climate change shows that behaviour can influence global temperature in the year 2100 by up to 1.5 °C.