Articles in 2022

The necessary and rapid transition to a low-carbon economy will lead to massive stranded assets, which could risk the stability of financial markets and the economy. Through a global equity network, most risk and responsibility is owned by investors, such as pension funds, in developed countries.

Southern mid-latitude winter storms are expected to intensify with emission increases, but it is unknown if such intensification has already emerged. Here, storms are shown to have intensified in recent decades, and current models considerably underestimate this, indicating more risk than projected.

South Asian agriculture depends on water from rains, meltwater and groundwater, but climate change impacts the timing of these water sources’ availability. Projections indicate that meltwater and groundwater will become more important and will need to offset reduced rainfall during drier years.

The authors show earlier future phytoplankton bloom initiation timing in most oceans, while shifts in bloom peak timing will vary widely by region. In the extratropics, these phenological changes will exceed background natural variability by the end of the twenty-first century.

The coastal regions of the Western North Pacific have seen large increases in tropical cyclone heavy rainfall frequency. Statistical fingerprint analysis shows that this observed geographical change in heavy rainfall is related to anthropogenic climate change.

The authors demonstrate that a vegetation system’s ability to recover from disturbances—its resilience—can be estimated from its natural variability. Global patterns of resilience loss and gains since the early 1990s reveal shifts towards widespread resilience loss since the early 2000s.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is predicted to slow with climate change. Sea surface temperature data and climate model analysis show that since 1900 natural variability has been dominant in AMOC changes; anthropogenic forcing is not yet reliably detectable by this method.

Climate change is causing more frequent and intense precipitation extremes, yet the changes are difficult to project. Here, climate models are used to develop an emergent constraint; applying this suggests a 32% increase in the frequency of precipitation extremes by the end of the century.

Satellite observations show slight increases in Antarctic sea-ice extent, yet climate models predict declines. Here sea-ice expansion is shown to occur when the Southern Ocean surface cools from natural climate variability, primarily linked via teleconnections with the tropical Pacific Ocean.

The authors consider the complex effects of climate change on winter wheat in the United States. They show that snow cover insulation weakened yield sensitivity to freezing stress by 22% from 1999 to 2019, but project that future reduced snow cover will offset up to one-third of the yield benefit from reduced frost.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation plays a central role in global climate through its transport of heat, carbon and fresh water. Its sensitivity to freshwater input change is shown to be muted when fluxes associated with the final Northern Hemisphere deglaciation are considered.

The authors define the global environmental niches of plankton from nano- (viruses) to meso-zooplankton (small metazoans) using metagenomic data. They assess reorganizations under climate change and the environmental drivers of change, with focus on the impacts on nitrogen and carbon fluxes.

Protecting the ocean from increasing threats requires the development of high-seas marine reserve networks. An approach that optimizes biodiversity, minimizes climate change exposure and reduces fisheries conflict enables low-regret climate-smart conservation areas to be identified.

Between 1955 and 2000 stratospheric ozone decreased and tropospheric ozone increased. Model analysis shows that these ozone changes each drove warming of the Southern Ocean through distinct mechanisms and together account for ~30% of the net subsurface Southern Ocean heat content increases over the same period, with the larger contribution from tropospheric increases.

Observations show that China is undergoing greater warming than the United States, yet climate models fail to capture the difference in warming trends. The difference in warming is a result of a stronger climate response to external forcing in China.

Permafrost peatlands are thawing, yet the timing and spatial dynamics of thaw are not well constrained. Under moderate and high warming scenarios, permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia will cross a tipping point where the climate becomes unsuitable, putting their carbon stores at risk.

Co-occurring hot and dry extremes are predicted to increase with global warming. Changes in precipitation will modulate the extent of these changes, highlighting the importance of understanding regional precipitation trends to prepare society and minimize impacts.

A large proportion of the population in developed countries will be of senior age in the years ahead. The carbon emissions of this group comprised an increasing share of the total emissions in developed countries in the past decade, with high expenditure on carbon-intensive products, and this trend will continue in the future.

Wheat genotypes with improved seedling emergence can be sown deeper, facilitating seedling survival under climate change. Crop modelling of these novel genotypes predicts yield increases of up to 20% relative to current genotypes in Australia, with potential for substantial gains in other regions globally.

The Amazon rainforest is increasingly under pressure from climate change and deforestation. The resilience of three-quarters of the forest, particularly in drier areas or close to human activity, has been decreasing since the 2000s, indicating that the system may be approaching a tipping point.