Articles in 2022

Ocean changes could affect the East Antarctic Ice Sheet and its contribution to sea level rise. Oceanographic observations off East Antarctica show substantial warming of mid-depth Circumpolar Deep Water, linked to poleward wind shifts, with implications for glacial melt and ice sheet stability.

Residential sector decarbonization is an essential part of mitigation, especially in the United States where per capita energy use is high by global standards. This article shows the emission reduction potential from individual and combined strategies applied to existing and new homes and to electricity supply.

Peatlands have historically acted as a carbon sink, but it is unclear how climate warming will affect this. The response of peatland carbon uptake to warming depends on the timing of summer warming; early warming leads to increased CO₂ uptake and later warming to decreased uptake.

Changes in the spatial pattern of aerosol could influence climate through effects on radiative forcing. Model experiments show that while aerosol absorption in the midlatitudes and regions of tropical descent can warm the planet, aerosol absorption in regions of tropical ascent can cool the planet.

Hydropower will be an important source to meet the increasing energy needs in Africa, yet it is also faced with growing climate-induced risks. Regional interconnections among power pools and variable renewable energy could both help to reduce capacity loss and variability.

Joint initiatives by state and non-state actors launched at climate summits are expected to enhance climate governance. However, those launched at earlier summits often perform better, as do initiatives in areas such as transport, energy and industry and ones with robust institutional arrangements.

Climate change may increase or decrease human migration. Applying an integrated assessment model with migration dynamics to income data, the authors show that the lowest-income groups have mobility reduced by 10–35%.

Falling raindrops play an essential but as-yet unquantified role in planetary climate change. Here the authors use the concept of precipitation efficiency to establish that raindrops play a critical role in predicting future tropical atmospheric circulation and extreme precipitation.

Climate change is expected to impact moisture supply, which is critical for production of food and carbon uptake by terrestrial ecosystems. A shift from ecosystem energy to water limitation is predicted between 1980 and 2100, with implications for ecosystem function under climate change.

The authors project the impacts of future changes in sea surface temperature, salinity and therefore density on the dispersal of buoyant mangrove propagules. They show that warmer and fresher oceans may increase propagule sinking rates, potentially reducing future mangrove resilience.

Detecting change in tropical cyclones is difficult from observational records. Here a reconstruction using reanalysis data of annual cyclone numbers shows they have declined globally and regionally over the twentieth century.

The ocean absorbs atmospheric heat; understanding this process is needed to predict climate change impacts. Model analysis shows the influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Southern Ocean heat uptake—projections with larger (smaller) ENSO amplitude show less (more) ocean warming.

Ice that melts at high elevation often refreezes and, therefore, does not contribute to the shrinking of ice sheets. Here, the authors show that the elevation at which melting ice starts to contribute to runoff has increased over recent years in Greenland, expanding the runoff area by 29%.

Changes in wave climate can pose substantial risk to coastal areas. Here transitional wave climate regions—areas where a wave climate will increase its frequency of occurrence—are identified and classified with implications for understanding future coastal risk.

Food demand is increasing, while climate change is impacting the magnitude and stability of crop yields. High-quality soils are able to buffer the negative impacts of climate change and lead to smaller yield reduction and higher yield stability, indicating a potential adaptation strategy.

Companies commonly use renewable energy certificates to report progress towards emission reduction targets. However, this use of certificates is unlikely to result in actual emission reductions, which undermines the credibility of corporate emission reduction claims and their alignment with the Paris Agreement goal.

Changes to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will have substantial regional impacts but more remote effects are unclear. Here, model analysis shows that AMOC collapse causes excess heat to accumulate in the tropical south Atlantic Ocean, resulting in atmospheric changes globally.

Halting emissions does not immediately stop warming as atmospheric concentrations continue to warm the planet. This study shows society may already be committed to exceeding 1.5 °C peak warming with 42% probability; delaying cuts increases this to 66% in 2029 for all scenarios.

The authors analyse four decades of distribution data for various taxonomic groups to understand the shift of species within their climatic niches and the changing influences of different climate factors. The diverse and diverging climate imprints raise concerns about future ecosystem integrity.

Vegetation productivity in the Northern Hemisphere has increased under climate change since the 1980s. However, the correlations between productivity and summer temperature are projected to decrease by the end of the century, with implications for the magnitude of the terrestrial carbon sink.