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Volume 566 Issue 7742, 7 February 2019

Melting point

Two papers in this week’s issue focus on the melting ice sheets. In one, Nicholas Golledge and his colleagues examine the cascading effects of melt from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Using satellite measurements of recent ice-mass changes, the researchers refine current simulations to show that future ice-sheet melt will increase sea level by up to 25 centimetres by 2100, and that this will slow major aspects of ocean circulation, further enhance Antarctic melt and increase climate variability. In a second paper, Tamsin Edwards and her colleagues revisit the controversial marine ice-cliff instability hypothesis, which posits that coastal ice cliffs in Antarctica rapidly collapse when ice shelves melt. The researchers find that ice-cliff collapse is not required to explain past rises in sea level and suggest that this casts doubt on the need to include the hypothesis in projections. As a result, the team’s model predicts that there is only a 5% chance that the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise will exceed 39 centimetres by 2100.

Cover image: Tom Hegen

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