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Climate change impacts on snow avalanche activity and related risks

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment (2024)Cite this article

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Abstract

In the rapidly evolving mountain cryosphere, snow avalanches threaten livelihoods, settlements and infrastructure. In this Review, we analyse past and projected impacts of climate change on avalanche activity and the associated risks. The limited availability of comprehensive datasets, the potential confounding factors and the limitations of statistical approaches can make it difficult to identify trends in avalanche activity. However, available data indicate a general decrease in avalanche number, size, seasonality and active paths at low elevations, and an increase in the proportion of wet avalanches relative to dry avalanches. Increased snowfall at high elevations can lead to peaks in avalanche activity and an increase in the number of wet and slush-like avalanches. Activity patterns gradually shift from low to high elevations under continued warming. These changes affect avalanche risk; however, risk is also influenced by factors such as land use and the growth or decline of human settlements. The impact of these factors varies across diverse mountain environments, making it challenging to predict how risk will evolve under a changing climate. Therefore, future research should aim to couple an improved systemic understanding of the impacts of these factors with slope-scale projections of avalanche hazards and risks to support sustainable mountain development and adaptation strategies.

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Fig. 1: The diversity of avalanches.
Fig. 2: The two archetypal avalanche types and the related disaster risks.
Fig. 3: Available data to assess past changes in avalanche activity.
Fig. 4: Assessing changes in risks related to avalanche activity, and their relation to climate change.
Fig. 5: Past and future patterns of change in avalanche activity and risk.
Fig. 6: A conceptual model of changes in seasonal snow cover, avalanche activity and related risks.

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Acknowledgements

N.E. was supported by the French National Research Agency through the Statistical Modelling for the Assessment and Mitigation of Mountain Risks in a Changing Environment — SMARTEN programme under grant agreement ANR-20-Tremplin-ERC8-0001. N.E., F.G. and P.H. are members of Grenoble RISK Institute https://risk.univ-grenoble-alpes.fr/fr. IGE and CNRM are members of LabEx OSUG.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. INRAE, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, Grenoble, France

    Nicolas Eckert & Florie Giacona

  2. Université Clermont-Auvergne, CNRS, GEOLAB, Clermont-Ferrand, France

    Christophe Corona

  3. Climate Change Impacts and Risks in the Anthropocene (C-CIA), Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland

    Christophe Corona & Markus Stoffel

  4. Institute for Geotechnical Engineering, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland

    Johan Gaume

  5. WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos Dorf, Switzerland

    Johan Gaume, Stephanie Mayer & Alec van Herwijnen

  6. Climate Change, Extremes, and Natural Hazards in Alpine Regions Research Center CERC, Davos Dorf, Switzerland

    Johan Gaume

  7. Université Grenoble Alpes, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, CNRM, Centre d’Études de la Neige, Grenoble, France

    Pascal Hagenmuller

  8. Department of Earth Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland

    Markus Stoffel

  9. Department F.-A. Forel for Environmental and Aquatic Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland

    Markus Stoffel

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N.E. designed the Review. C.C. analysed references to existing records on past snow avalanche activity. F.G., C.C., J.G., S.M. and N.E. produced the illustrations. N.E. drafted the first version of the manuscript based on the inputs of all co-authors. All authors edited the manuscript.

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Eckert, N., Corona, C., Giacona, F. et al. Climate change impacts on snow avalanche activity and related risks. Nat Rev Earth Environ (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-024-00540-2

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