Brazil is a key player for the future of global food and climate security. An agricultural powerhouse and one of the world’s 10 largest contributors of greenhouse gas emissions, roughly half of which are associated with land use change, the country’s current decisions may substantially hinder or catalyse progress towards sustainability as the Earth’s climate approaches a point of collapse.

Credit: Handout/Handout/Getty Images News/Getty

After a period of intense environmental degradation under the administration of Jair Bolsonaro (2019–2022), the current government led by President Lula has set the protection of the Amazon and Cerrado biomes as a priority. Among other measures, Lula has adopted more ambitious climate change mitigation targets than many developed countries, helped to restore trust among donors of the Amazon Fund and signed a non-binding agreement to triple the capacity to generate renewable energy by 2030 and improve energy efficiency rates. In the first 9 months of 2023, Brazilian deforestation had been reduced to about one-third of the levels seen over the same period a year before (from 9.069 km² to 3.516 km²).

Yet, during COP28 in the United Arab Emirates, Brazil has announced its plan to join the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) in January 2024 and to auction several new oil drilling blocks for commercial exploration. Unsurprisingly, the announcement had a negative repercussion among environmentalists, especially during a conference aimed at building consensus around strategies to phase out fossil fuels.

The motivations behind it are uncertain but cast doubt on Brazil’s priorities and ability to advance a sustainable food–climate agenda. According to official government declarations, Brazil’s involvement with OPEC+ seeks to push oil-producing countries to accelerate their uptake of renewable energy and climate change mitigation efforts. However, new oil projects remain unjustified, and the country’s additional contribution to existing agreements among OPEC+ members to deepen voluntary oil production cuts might not be worth the risk to the country’s image. National politics — particularly the need for Lula to form alliances with political parties of divergent priorities — combined with the idea of reaching oil self-sufficiency and the government’s desire to strengthen relationships with Arab nations may have played a role.

Regardless of specific motivations, the significance and potential impact of such a move in the context of sustainability and climate change deserve careful consideration. In advance of COP30 — to be held in the capital of the state of Pará, at the heart of the Amazon — and the next G20 Summit — taking place in Rio de Janeiro — Brazil has attracted a lot of attention and is in a great position to become a leading voice from the Global South against the old logic and in support of change. Domestically, this is an opportunity for Brazil to put itself on a different development pathway, fostering more sustainable food production and managing natural resources in a just and inclusive way.

Despite the declaration made by COP28’s president Sultan Al Jaber denying scientific research on the importance of phasing out fossil fuels to limit global warming to 1.5 °C, later tempered with a note on the need to create alternatives before a transition can be completed, the clock is ticking. At this point, any sign of ambivalence or tolerance with the inertia of countries profiting from the status quo might compromise Brazil’s own protagonism and further delay the global transition to a greener economy. Just like Ecuador has made history by halting oil drilling in the Yasuní Amazonian national park earlier this year, Brazil should focus on setting an example for the reconciliation of environmental protection and sustainable food production.