Nature 557, 719–723 (2018)

A new framework allows the identification of individuals with subclinical dengue infections.

Many dengue fever infections go unobserved, which hampers the wider understanding of disease risk and the identification of correlates of infection. Researchers analyzed blood samples from a school-aged cohort in Thailand to develop a model of antibody dynamics upon infection with dengue. This allowed them to extrapolate diagnoses in infected individuals without outward symptoms. They found previous infection and maintenance of a certain amount of antibodies in blood increased the probability that a second infection would result in hemorrhagic fever.

The model also helps understanding of vaccine response and can be applied to other infectious diseases.